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3Q18 Capital Expenditures

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Jul 9, 2018.

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What will Tesla's Total CapEx be in 3Q18?

Poll closed Jul 16, 2018.
  1. $400m or less

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. $400m to $500m

    5 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. $500m to $600m

    4 vote(s)
    20.0%
  4. $600m to $700m

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  5. $700m to $800m

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  6. $800m to $900m

    1 vote(s)
    5.0%
  7. $900m to $1B

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. $1B or more

    1 vote(s)
    5.0%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    ValueAnalyst on Twitter

    My followers get it: Tesla's Maintenance CapEx comprises only a fraction of its Total CapEx. Based on an analysis of depreciation expense on relatively new assets, and competitors' output per CapEx$, I estimate our company's Maintenance CapEx at less than $1B in 2017 and $2B in 2018.

    ValueAnalyst on Twitter

    Tesla's Maintenance CapEx is relatively low compared to Growth CapEx, which is why management was able to dial down planned 2018 CapEx, and dial up profitability with ease. This key point is what those who expect bankwuptcy do not get, yet. They will soon.

    What do you expect Tesla's Total CapEx, including both maintenance and growth CapEx, to be in 3Q18?

    1Q17: $553m
    2Q17: $959m
    3Q17: $1,116m
    4Q17: $787m
    1Q18: $656m
    2Q18: TBA in Aug
    3Q18: Poll question
     
  2. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

    Joined:
    May 1, 2012
    Messages:
    980
    Location:
    Schweinfurt, Germany
    Sure, they are saving where they can.

    But buildout of Superchargers, Service Centers and so on will not come to a halt.

    And the new GA lines will cost money as will the buildout of capacity in Nevada. Grohmann people are working hard.

    Tesla is making efficient use of capex; but they cannot - in my opinion - and should not go too low.


    So 500-600 it is.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  3. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    ValueAnalyst on Twitter

    For comparison purposes:

    $GM spent $8.5B in CapEx and produced 10m vehicles in 2017.

    $TSLA will produce at an annualized rate of 350,000 units in 3Q18, so its *maintenance CapEx* is likely than $2B/Y, or $500M/Q.

    Tesla will likely not undertake any major growth CapEx in 3Q18.
     
  4. FirebirdAlpha

    FirebirdAlpha Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2018
    Messages:
    198
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    Reminder: Tesla's Q1 letter said they were still planning 2.35B in CapEx for the remainder of the year.

    CapEx isn't something that you can just "turn off." Heavy machinery takes months to configure, produce, test, and deliver. Construction projects start months before completion - cancelling construction bares a significant penalty, as the construction company has a big opportunity cost.

    You can't easily bail on CapEx. Tesla stated on the Q1 call that total 2018 CapEx would be just under 3B and the vast majority of it was for the Model 3.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  5. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2016
    Messages:
    5,267
    Location:
    World
    Hmm.. I see you repeating this false narrative, even though it has been shown to you that it is incorrect, as if you are trying to spread FUD?

    I see on your profile that you have the all-time record in disagree-to-posts ratio, which is also another indicator that you are spreading FUD.

    Ignored.
     

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