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3Q18 Model 3 Production

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, May 26, 2018.

?

How Many Model 3's Will Tesla Produce in 3Q18

Poll closed Jun 2, 2018.

  1. 60,000 or less

    24 vote(s)
    49.0%

  2. 65,000

    14 vote(s)
    28.6%

  3. 70,000

    8 vote(s)
    16.3%

  4. 75,000

    2 vote(s)
    4.1%

  5. 80,000+

    1 vote(s)
    2.0%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #1 ValueAnalyst, May 26, 2018
  2. Mo City

    Mo City Member

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    #2 Mo City, May 26, 2018
    Call me a slight optimist. I think they will average 5,000/week for the quarter, finishing up Sep at ~6,000/week.

    The fun will continue when Elon starts teasing timelines that 8K-9K-10K/week will occur sometime in 2019.
     
    • Like x 2
  3. Anstandswauwau

    Anstandswauwau Member

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    #3 Anstandswauwau, May 26, 2018
    5k target production + 5.5k bursts - shutdowns =
    4.5k – 4.75k units / week average =
    59.500 – 62.700 units in Q3

    ~85k units in Q4

    Target production for 2018: 200k units
     
    • Like x 1
  4. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #4 ValueAnalyst, May 26, 2018
    3Q18 70,000
    4Q18 95,000
     
    • Like x 1
  5. Starno

    Starno Active Member

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    #5 Starno, May 26, 2018
    I believe about 62300

    July
    1st week : 4500
    2nd week : 5000
    3rd week : 5300
    4th week : 5300

    August
    1st week : 5500
    2nd week : 5700
    3rd week : 6000
    4th week : 0 (production line tweaks)

    September
    1st week : 6000
    2nd week : 6000
    3rd week : 6500
    4th week : 6500
     
  6. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    #6 mrdoubleb, May 26, 2018
    65,000 maybe 60,000 definitely.
     
    • Funny x 3
  7. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #7 ValueAnalyst, May 26, 2018
    No major push in the last few weeks following production line tweaks? I would add ~1000/wk to each week in September; otherwise agreed.
     
  8. generalenthu

    generalenthu Member

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    #8 generalenthu, May 26, 2018
    This poll is not helpful. Half the votes now are at the bottom end.

    Need more resolution there.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    #9 dhanson865, May 26, 2018
    Last edited: May 26, 2018
    There are 13 weeks in a quarter. Doesn't matter what month you put the 13th week in but you need one. Just adding another low week to your prediction takes you from 62,300 to 66,800.

    Since this is production not delivery I'll adjust the week names / output a bit to show a >70,000 quarter which is around the median of the poll results.

    July
    1st week : 5600
    2nd week : 5700
    3rd week : 5800
    4th week : 5900
    5th week : 6000 (July/August)
    6th week : 6100
    7th week : 6200
    8th week : 2200 (production line tweaks, partial week shutdown)
    9th week : 6900 (August/September)
    10th week : 7100
    11th week : 7300
    12th week : 7400
    13th week : 7500
    September
     
    • Like x 1
  10. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #10 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
    This won't be the first time Tesla will prove the vast majority of voters too pessimistic.

    Example 1
    Example 2
     
  11. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #11 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
    The following is a related post from @generalenthu that I found helpful:

    I will think about this further and may change my vote later.

    Edit: Another insightful post related to this poll:
    Given (i) the information above, (ii) the cadence of production rate in the last three quarters, (iii) the fact that Tesla has several years of experience producing performance and dual motor versions for Model S and Model X, (iv) the fact that the majority of the production line will remain the same from 2Q to 3Q, and (v) the indication from management that "marriage" at Fremont and "all four" zones of module assembly at Gigafactory 1 are now fixed, both of which were key bottlenecks, I remain closer to my original estimate, while keeping in mind that this is just an estimate and that facts may change in the coming months. Thanks everyone for your inputs.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    #12 bdy0627, May 27, 2018
    I’m going to keep my expectations reasonably low for Q3, but we probably are nearing the area of the ramp that could surprise to the upside. I think we will have a sustained rate in early Q3 that is lower than the rate at the end of Q2. My guess is sustained rates of about 4,000/wk to start and 6,000/wk to end Q3. Total for the quarter around 60k.
     
    • Like x 1
  13. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #13 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Thanks for sharing your thought process. I agree that we may at the inflection point where the ramp could surprise to the upside.

    The added complexity of performance and dual motor versions is something to watch in the coming months. Let's see how it pans out.
     
  14. Ellec

    Ellec Member

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    #14 Ellec, May 28, 2018
    July : 21k (Average 5k a week)
    August: 24k (Average 6k a week)
    September: 25k (Average 7k with small shutdown)

    Total 70k
     
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