3Q18 Model 3 Production

[ValueAnalyst]

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

What comes next?

3Q17 260
4Q17 2,425
1Q18 9,766
2Q18 37,500 est.
3Q18 ??,???

 

[Mo City]

Call me a slight optimist. I think they will average 5,000/week for the quarter, finishing up Sep at ~6,000/week.

The fun will continue when Elon starts teasing timelines that 8K-9K-10K/week will occur sometime in 2019.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

5k target production + 5.5k bursts - shutdowns =
4.5k – 4.75k units / week average =
59.500 – 62.700 units in Q3

~85k units in Q4

Target production for 2018: 200k units

 

[ValueAnalyst]

3Q18 70,000
4Q18 95,000

 

[Starno]

I believe about 62300

July
1st week : 4500
2nd week : 5000
3rd week : 5300
4th week : 5300

August
1st week : 5500
2nd week : 5700
3rd week : 6000
4th week : 0 (production line tweaks)

September
1st week : 6000
2nd week : 6000
3rd week : 6500
4th week : 6500

 

[mrdoubleb]

65,000 maybe 60,000 definitely.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I believe about 62300

July
1st week : 4500
2nd week : 5000
3rd week : 5300
4th week : 5300

August
1st week : 5500
2nd week : 5700
3rd week : 6000
4th week : 0 (production line tweaks)

September
1st week : 6000
2nd week : 6000
3rd week : 6500
4th week : 6500

No major push in the last few weeks following production line tweaks? I would add ~1000/wk to each week in September; otherwise agreed.

 

[generalenthu]

This poll is not helpful. Half the votes now are at the bottom end.

Need more resolution there.

 

[dhanson865]

I believe about 62300

July
1st week : 4500

There are 13 weeks in a quarter. Doesn't matter what month you put the 13th week in but you need one. Just adding another low week to your prediction takes you from 62,300 to 66,800.

Since this is production not delivery I'll adjust the week names / output a bit to show a >70,000 quarter which is around the median of the poll results.

July
1st week : 5600
2nd week : 5700
3rd week : 5800
4th week : 5900
5th week : 6000 (July/August)
6th week : 6100
7th week : 6200
8th week : 2200 (production line tweaks, partial week shutdown)
9th week : 6900 (August/September)
10th week : 7100
11th week : 7300
12th week : 7400
13th week : 7500
September

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This poll is not helpful. Half the votes now are at the bottom end.

Need more resolution there.

This won't be the first time Tesla will prove the vast majority of voters too pessimistic.

Example 1
Example 2

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The following is a related post from @generalenthu that I found helpful:

For someone purportedly following Tesla so, closely, I am surprised you think this is a replica. This is a different zone of the same module assembly line.

Anyways, to put some cold water on your Q3 projections, keep in mind that they are producing new cars on the line - performance version with a lot of new parts, (eg: suspension, brakes), Awd, and the regular LR, with a workforce, that is just getting hired. If they hit 60k with this mix, that is terrific and beyond expectations.

I will think about this further and may change my vote later.

Edit: Another insightful post related to this poll:

Preferring warm water: much of what you are talking about (sans front drive unit) is a materials flow issue. Performance rotors, calipers, wheels and suspension all attach identically to current production.

The front drive unit is bolt in with additional cooling and electrical connections followed by a similar hub attachment process as the rear unit (or prebuilt front unit with suspension attached). Front frame and knuckles stay the same.

Given (i) the information above, (ii) the cadence of production rate in the last three quarters, (iii) the fact that Tesla has several years of experience producing performance and dual motor versions for Model S and Model X, (iv) the fact that the majority of the production line will remain the same from 2Q to 3Q, and (v) the indication from management that "marriage" at Fremont and "all four" zones of module assembly at Gigafactory 1 are now fixed, both of which were key bottlenecks, I remain closer to my original estimate, while keeping in mind that this is just an estimate and that facts may change in the coming months. Thanks everyone for your inputs.

 

[bdy0627]

This won't be the first time Tesla will prove the vast majority of voters too pessimistic.

Example 1
Example 2

I’m going to keep my expectations reasonably low for Q3, but we probably are nearing the area of the ramp that could surprise to the upside. I think we will have a sustained rate in early Q3 that is lower than the rate at the end of Q2. My guess is sustained rates of about 4,000/wk to start and 6,000/wk to end Q3. Total for the quarter around 60k.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I’m going to keep my expectations reasonably low for Q3, but we probably are nearing the area of the ramp that could surprise to the upside. I think we will have a sustained rate in early Q3 that is lower than the rate at the end of Q2. My guess is sustained rates of about 4,000/wk to start and 6,000/wk to end Q3. Total for the quarter around 60k.

Thanks for sharing your thought process. I agree that we may at the inflection point where the ramp could surprise to the upside.

The added complexity of performance and dual motor versions is something to watch in the coming months. Let's see how it pans out.

 

[Ellec]

July : 21k (Average 5k a week)
August: 24k (Average 6k a week)
September: 25k (Average 7k with small shutdown)

Total 70k