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3Q18 Production

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Sep 11, 2018.

?

How Many S/X/3 Will Tesla Produce in 3Q18?

Poll closed Sep 18, 2018.
  1. 70,000 or less

    5 vote(s)
    7.0%
  2. 72,500

    3 vote(s)
    4.2%
  3. 75,000

    12 vote(s)
    16.9%
  4. 77,500

    15 vote(s)
    21.1%
  5. 80,000

    19 vote(s)
    26.8%
  6. 82,500

    9 vote(s)
    12.7%
  7. 85,000

    4 vote(s)
    5.6%
  8. 87,500

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 90,000 or more

    4 vote(s)
    5.6%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    How many total units will Tesla produce in the third quarter of 2018?

    Please feel free to share the breakdown of your estimate in a comment below.

    Good luck!
     
  2. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    80k. Previous guesses I have been pretty wrong, mostly because I was looking to have a small chance of being very right if something unlikely happened. This time I'll try just to be realistic. I think 28k S+X and 52k M3 is about right. So I say exactly 80k.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #3 ValueAnalyst, Sep 11, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
    Production
    S 12,500
    X 12,500
    3 52,500
    T 77,500

    Deliveries
    S 13,000
    X 14,000
    3 57,500
    T 84,500
     
  4. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

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    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    75k produced
    - 12.5k S
    - 12.5k X
    - 50k 3 (because it's the low end of their target and they weren't able to burst up to 6k by the end August)
     
  5. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2016
    Messages:
    837
    Location:
    Bay Area
    Production
    25,500 S/X
    53,000 3

    Deliveries
    26,500 S/X
    53,001 3
     
  6. oneday

    oneday Active Member

    Joined:
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    1,074
    Location:
    Bay Area
    S/X - 27,500
    3 - 50,000
    T - 77,500
     
    • Like x 1
  7. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Active Member

    Joined:
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    1,450
    Location:
    Southern California
    S/X - 28,000
    3 - 51,000
    Total - 79,000
     
  8. tander

    tander Active Member

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    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,508
    I'll be an optimist.
    First week at 5000 for 3, last week at 6400, avg increase of 140 per week, 12 weeks=62700
    S+X 2000 a week 12 weeks =24000
    total 3sx=86700
    Throw in a maybe a few hundred extra s+x, maybe a few days at a 7k rate for model 3 and you're over 90k
    Extra optimistic thing is if they deliver most of what is produced in q3, they still get to add an extra 15k in transits from q2.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  9. TSLA_Hopeful

    TSLA_Hopeful Member

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    Location:
    Chicago
    S/X - 25,500
    3- 52,500
     
  10. TSLA_Hopeful

    TSLA_Hopeful Member

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    This dude be watching price is right.
     
    • Funny x 3
  11. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    Remember the quote Elon mentioned on the Joe Rogan podcast? “Happiness is reality minus expectations.”

    I tried to keep my expectations as low as possible while meeting guidance (50k production/50,001 deliveries), but the July and August delivery estimates convinced me that deliveries will be higher. I stand by my expectation that deliveries will exceed production by 1 car.

    If my expectations turn out to be too low, that’ll just increase my happiness.
     
    • Like x 3
  12. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Supporting Member

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    Budapest, Hungary
    Yeah, i don't have the best track record either, I am usually too optimistic... Anyway, based on all the info we have my educated guess is:

    Production:
    Model 3: 52,000
    S/X: 25,000

    Deliveries:
    Model 3: 55,000
    S/X: 26,000
     
  13. Mich

    Mich Member

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    Feb 19, 2017
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    Germany
    How do you interprete the "doubled build and produktion in one quarter" quote by EM?
     
  14. yak-55

    yak-55 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2014
    Messages:
    275
    Location:
    Florida
    Production: 3 - 48,777
    S/X - 22,111

    Deliveries: 3 - 50,123
    S/X - 23,496
     
  15. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #15 ValueAnalyst, Sep 13, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2018
    Always interpret any ambiguity in EM statements with the worst possible explanation. In this case, he likely meant deliveries doubled from 40,740 last quarter.
     
  16. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Active Member

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    Location:
    Canton, Georgia
    Model S - A lot
    Model X - Even more
    Model 3 - A *sugar* ton!

    Only stat that counts...MY CAR WILL BE ONE OF THEM!!!!!

    Dan
     
    • Love x 3
  17. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    Hi, everybody. Here are the links to the Q3 2018 Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates Competition:

    Google form to enter and edit your estimates. There are 5 categories. You can enter as many as you want. Open the same form again until the end of 30th, Pacific Time, to edit your data.

    Google sheet to view the estimates.

    In Q2, @yak-55 had the most accurate overall estimates with 95.9% average in 5 categories followed by @Bokonon at 92.6% average. The most accurate single estimate was @Bokonon's Model 3 production estimate at 99.9%. Actual production was 28,578 units, the estimate was 28,600.
     
  18. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    Numbers are in:
     
    • Love x 2
    • Informative x 1
  19. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Profits secured.
     
    • Love x 3
    • Like x 1

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