3Q18 Production

[ValueAnalyst]

How many total units will Tesla produce in the third quarter of 2018?

Please feel free to share the breakdown of your estimate in a comment below.

Good luck!

 

[heltok]

80k. Previous guesses I have been pretty wrong, mostly because I was looking to have a small chance of being very right if something unlikely happened. This time I'll try just to be realistic. I think 28k S+X and 52k M3 is about right. So I say exactly 80k.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Production
S 12,500
X 12,500
3 52,500
T 77,500

Deliveries
S 13,000
X 14,000
3 57,500
T 84,500

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

75k produced
- 12.5k S
- 12.5k X
- 50k 3 (because it's the low end of their target and they weren't able to burst up to 6k by the end August)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Production
25,500 S/X
53,000 3

Deliveries
26,500 S/X
53,001 3

 

[oneday]

S/X - 27,500
3 - 50,000
T - 77,500

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

S/X - 28,000
3 - 51,000
Total - 79,000

 

[tander]

I'll be an optimist.
First week at 5000 for 3, last week at 6400, avg increase of 140 per week, 12 weeks=62700
S+X 2000 a week 12 weeks =24000
total 3sx=86700
Throw in a maybe a few hundred extra s+x, maybe a few days at a 7k rate for model 3 and you're over 90k
Extra optimistic thing is if they deliver most of what is produced in q3, they still get to add an extra 15k in transits from q2.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

S/X - 25,500
3- 52,500

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Production
25,500 S/X
53,000 3

Deliveries
26,500 S/X
53,001 3

This dude be watching price is right.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

This dude be watching price is right.

Remember the quote Elon mentioned on the Joe Rogan podcast? “Happiness is reality minus expectations.”

I tried to keep my expectations as low as possible while meeting guidance (50k production/50,001 deliveries), but the July and August delivery estimates convinced me that deliveries will be higher. I stand by my expectation that deliveries will exceed production by 1 car.

If my expectations turn out to be too low, that’ll just increase my happiness.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Yeah, i don't have the best track record either, I am usually too optimistic... Anyway, based on all the info we have my educated guess is:

Production:
Model 3: 52,000
S/X: 25,000

Deliveries:
Model 3: 55,000
S/X: 26,000

 

[Mich]

How do you interprete the "doubled build and produktion in one quarter" quote by EM?

 

[yak-55]

Production: 3 - 48,777
S/X - 22,111

Deliveries: 3 - 50,123
S/X - 23,496

 

[ValueAnalyst]

How do you interprete the "doubled build and produktion in one quarter" quote by EM?

Always interpret any ambiguity in EM statements with the worst possible explanation. In this case, he likely meant deliveries doubled from 40,740 last quarter.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Model S - A lot
Model X - Even more
Model 3 - A *sugar* ton!

Only stat that counts...MY CAR WILL BE ONE OF THEM!!!!!

Dan

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Here are the links to the Q3 2018 Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates Competition:

Google form to enter and edit your estimates. There are 5 categories. You can enter as many as you want. Open the same form again until the end of 30th, Pacific Time, to edit your data.

Google sheet to view the estimates.

In Q2, @yak-55 had the most accurate overall estimates with 95.9% average in 5 categories followed by @Bokonon at 92.6% average. The most accurate single estimate was @Bokonon's Model 3 production estimate at 99.9%. Actual production was 28,578 units, the estimate was 28,600.

 

[heltok]

Numbers are in:

In Q3, we produced 80,142 vehicles, 50% more than our prior all-time high in Q2, including:

53,239 Model 3 vehicles, which was in line with our guidance and almost double the volume of Q2. During Q3, we transitioned Model 3 production from entirely rear wheel drive at the beginning of the quarter to almost entirely dual motor during the last few weeks of the quarter. This added significant complexity, but we successfully executed this transition and ultimately produced more dual motor than rear wheel drive cars in Q3. In the last week of the quarter, we produced over 5,300 Model 3 vehicles, almost all of which were dual motor, meaning that we achieved a production rate of more than 10,000 drive units per week.
26,903 Model S and X vehicles, which was slightly higher than Q2 and in line with our full-year guidance.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Numbers are in:

Profits secured.