4 months left in 2020 to make a Tesla FSD on city streets

[CertLive]

We are in that same position now as I was buying my 2019 Model 3 from the Tesla website last year. Knowing that as stated by Elon that the car would self drive by the end of 2019. How confident does everyone feel? You see if I look overall at what my car could do then in terms of AP FSD and now it displays road cones, dust bins and traffic lights. It still phantom breaks, tries to sometimes steer off the road in AP for no good reason, doesn't recognise speed limit signs and at motorway speeds suddenly slows when it loses the speed limit. All of these are smoother with basic lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control methods in other cars currently. (Also experienced in an eniro it has smoother AP currently) It also parks worse than a 2017 ford focus. All of these things are from actual experience and are the reality of my ownership. But will my full self driving computer model 3 be able to drive across London on its own this year? I place the marker now in the sand and await the fiction to turn to real fact. Because I am on the edge of bailing out here if I am honest because reality with AP for me is that it has not improved much in almost a calendar year making the same mistakes.

 

[corndog]

I'm doubtful they'll have it working for the public this year. They still need to roll out the AP rewrite first, which will mean more incremental releases and fleet validation before driving on city streets can be released. If you're in London, I'd say no chance of this year. For people in the US; maaaaybe early access owners.

 

[afty]

There’s always 2021...

 

[Battpower]

....... if I look overall at what my car could do then in terms of AP FSD and now it displays road cones, dust bins and traffic lights. It still phantom breaks, tries to sometimes steer off the road in AP for no good reason, doesn't recognise speed limit signs and at motorway speeds suddenly slows when it loses the speed limit. All of these are smoother with basic lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control methods in other cars currently. (Also experienced in an eniro it has smoother AP currently) It also parks worse than a 2017 ford focus.

Swap Ford Focus for Renault Kadjar and I could have typed the same post for MS R. I was literally contemplating that very point as I saw this thread.

Tesla is (running?) out of time where they can ride on the coat tails of having a 'decent / viable EV' to get all the niggles past owners.

IMO there is no chance of city FSD in the UK in 2020. Likely not in 2021 either. 2021 might see some limited test program being introduced, but AP is just far too far away from dealing with so many common situations on UK roads. Even if the 3d / 4d rewrite is a night and day difference, there are bound to be issues (not least credibility ones) that will take time to be dispelled.

 

[maldahleh]

I don't know if this happens with anyone else, but my car recognizes so many "phantom" traffic lights, like flashing yellow caution lights to warn you to stay to the right of the island in the road, the car recognizes as a yellow light. Sometimes flashing yellow lights on construction cones, it also recognizes as a yellow light. Overhead arrows to mark which lanes to use, it also recognizes as a light, the green arrows it thinks are a green light, the red X it thinks are red lights.

 

[Battpower]

I don't know if this happens with anyone else, but my car recognizes so many "phantom" traffic lights, like flashing yellow caution lights to warn you to stay to the right of the island in the road, the car recognizes as a yellow light. Sometimes flashing yellow lights on construction cones, it also recognizes as a yellow light. Overhead arrows to mark which lanes to use, it also recognizes as a light, the green arrows it thinks are a green light, the red X it thinks are red lights.

Traffic lights hiding everywhere! They even move around.

 

[CertLive]

Well my last trip 5 days ago one of a few events... @ 8 seconds the sudden application of the breaks causes the car to slow hard and shift to the side and I had to take corrective action. It was a hard grab of the breaks. Been doing this since 2019. Because of a shadow? Other lane keeping methods are far safer no? Running most up to date patch. It really has you looking around everywhere thinking what the actual... just triggered auto breaking.

 

[timk225]

My Base AP likes to do the sudden brake application once in a while, sometimes when there's not even a bridge or overpass around.

FSD on city streets? Maybe in 22, no way will it happen before then.

 

[Battpower]

Well my last trip 5 days ago one of a few events... @ 8 seconds the sudden application of the breaks causes the car to slow hard and shift to the side and I had to take corrective action. It was a hard grab of the breaks. Been doing this since 2019. Because of a shadow? Other lane keeping methods are far safer no? Running most up to date patch. It really has you looking around everywhere thinking what the actual... just triggered auto breaking.

I don't know for sure what's going on behind the scenes, but from experience and comparing with various videos, it seems there is a strong possibility that a combination of spurious (maybe secondary) radar returns say from overhead structure or other (especially flat) surface, combined with visible shadow or light anomaly, and you get an erroneous response from the car.

 

[neptunesfinest]

I’m not sure why anyone believes any of the aspirational stuff with Tesla. They’re great cars for what they can actually do and they’d be even better if they didn’t continue to lie about the self driving stuff. At least people wouldn’t be perpetually disappointed. It doesn’t affect me at all since I’m not interested in self driving but I can understand the frustration if that was a major reason for buying the car.

 

[Battpower]

great cars for what they can actually do and they’d be even better if they didn’t continue to lie about the self driving stuff.

Without doubt, some of it used to feel like a party trick, but as EM has continued to align 'success' with AP, FSD, Robotaxis, million-mile batteries and whatever, he is unavoidably trading off those 'promises'. If nothing else, it paints a picture of a competent high tech car company right at the forefront. Owners deserve to broadly get what's promised otherwise the promises become totally hollow.

Compared with the very early adopters (Roadster and first S) current buyers are no longer knowingly taking a huge gamble. Tesla is up there with the 'big boys' and IMO needs to get its 'Big Boy Pants' on.

 

[CertLive]

I don't know for sure what's going on behind the scenes, but from experience and comparing with various videos, it seems there is a strong possibility that a combination of spurious (maybe secondary) radar returns say from overhead structure or other (especially flat) surface, combined with visible shadow or light anomaly, and you get an erroneous response from the car.

Yes it could be likely. The thing is when I have other people in the car I just wish I could have just a normal lane keeping. If the car had not hit the brakes there meaning I hit the accelerator to compensate and takeover. It would have tried to turn off the road to the left with the gap and the arrow. It would be a great option to have as FSD is not just a visual preview here as stated. At those speeds 20mph+ difference in speed is an instant rear end possibility. Even on this one there was a slight change in direction. No screeching tyres but a hard and firm breaking event. I discuss this none other because these are real ownership events for a system that needs a off switch sometimes as while the super smart stuff is worked on dumb it down to normal lane keeping assist when you do not want to frighten the passengers.

Like a Joe mode for AP....

 

[ucmndd]

But will my full self driving computer model 3 be able to drive across London on its own this year?

lol

Not a snowball’s chance in hell. Quite honestly the sensor suite in your car will likely never be able to reliably drive across London on its own.

Some of us bought into the Tesla FSD snake oil way back in 2016. Still nothing. If this is the only reason you’re keeping the car, dump it now.

 

[Battpower]

Quite honestly the sensor suite in your car will likely never be able to reliably drive across London on its own.

Or any other populated urban area imo. I don't get why there is so much discussion. It's becoming an ever increasing strain on language to keep coming up with claims and excuses that even sound slightly plausible. The good news for Tesla is that regulatory bodies are likely (hopefully) going to keep saying 'no' until Tesla deliver the undeliverable.

Even if it was delivered, all you would realize is that there is another whole level of vehicle-infrastructure-vehicle integration missing.

 

[sduck]

ain't gonna happen.

 

[TomT]

Won't happen in 2020.

 

[neptunesfinest]

I don’t even see it happening until 2025. Probably later than that.

 

[john5520]

They're hedging their bets on the re-write which has to deliver. It could very well be released before the end of the year. However, that does not necessarily mean turning on city streets will be available. If the re-write brings a solid improvement to what we have now, as in greatly reduced or the elimination of phantom braking, and accurate speed limits, I'd have no problem waiting however long for FSD in the city.

 

[rdunniii]

I don’t even see it happening until 2025. Probably later than that.

2nd. Especially the later than that part. Anyone who believes what Elon says any longer is a fool. It's like the fabled battery day where Elon is going to show miracles. Ahhh... No, he isn't. He may state miracles but they won't be happening anytime soon.

 

[Dutchie]

lol

Not a snowball’s chance in hell. Quite honestly the sensor suite in your car will likely never be able to reliably drive across London on its own.

Some of us bought into the Tesla FSD snake oil way back in 2016. Still nothing. If this is the only reason you’re keeping the car, dump it now.

LOL people claiming sensor suite is insufficient by just shouting. Based on what? There are hundreds of people working on FSD at Tesla. People much brighter than you and me. Most of R&D budget is going to FSD. Remember, Elon always delivers. Not always on time, but eventually he will. His timing has become better and he still believes FSD feature complete this year. I say January. Than the roll out for Software Stack 2.0 will begin and the fun with machine learning will really begin.