4 months left in 2020 to make a Tesla FSD on city streets

[Atari2600]

BTW since you seem mildly obsessed with seeing the checkbox- here you go.... FSD sales page WITH THE CHECKBOX and ALSO with the "almost all" language included from 2018.

As you can see, the checkbox is on the far left- if you look back at my original picutre you can see how it got cropped out of the original in the pic I happened to have- but it wasn't from "somewhere else" as you suggested.... it was just cropped to be neater but cut off the box.

That is not what I purchased. I included the screen of what I purchased. What I purchased is Level 5 otherwise it would have said "almost all". Since "almost all" is excluded it mean all circumstances. So perhaps you need 4, and not 3 sample purchase screens since none of yours reflect what I and others purcahsed.

 

[CertLive]

Just use Wayback machine and you will see the terms you bought the car under.

Does anyone think that Elon's public statement that he expects level 5 FSD to be reality by years end to be equivalent to a contract revision. In other words, if he expects, shouldn’t FSD purchasers also expect. Now "expect" may be rather indefinite as to FSD happening within the time frame referenced, but it certainly means a reality at some point, I would think. So inspite of different definitions of FSD showing up on Tesla's website, it would seem that Elon's statement is the latest that should apply.

Depends on how accountable a CEO is to the product his company sells? So far there is quite a bit of hype and you would assume this helps to sell more cars with FSD. Some of it valid some of it not yet working. I wonder how Rivian will turn out. They are ramping up to production soon and we will see if they are so likely to use their customer base as actual cannon fodder for a price. Or make real change in the quality department. This will be an interesting couple of years to see if new cars really do need to be made like this.

This has turned into quite the informative post from all of you, I always value the views here. This forum is just great for a real case ownership point of view for all the cars in the range and it has helped shape the choice I had in front of me in black and white today.

Elon seems like a top bloke in interviews. Space is exciting now! I just wonder if he knows and how he feels about current production quality leaving the assembly line. But I hope to see Tesla's driving themselves soon and using one as a robo taxi.

 

[Knightshade]

That is not what I purchased. I included the screen of what I purchased. What I purchased is Level 5 otherwise it would have said "almost all".

Incorrect.

It's L4.

Otherwise it would have said all.

It makes no promise of any kind about working everywhere

Which is what makes it L5.

 

[Atari2600]

Technically it's not lying. It's says "in the future". How far in the future? It didn't say in 2020, you will get Level 5 FSD capability in your vehicle.

If you noticed in an earlier post I expected them to get it finished this decade. That is just over 9 more years.

 

[Atari2600]

Incorrect.

It's L4.

Otherwise it would have said all.

It makes no promise of any kind about working everywhere

Which is what makes it L5.

You originally state it's L4 because the phrase "almost all" is in it. I show you my purchase screen and you state it's L4 because it does not contain the phrase "All circumstances"
Also, they did not state driver attention is needed, they say the opposite that driver interaction is not needed only L5 has that. It is up to the vendor to disclose limitations so I disagree with you.

 

[Knightshade]

You originally state it's L4 because the phrase "almost all" is in it.

I point out that wording makes it extra clear it's L4. Because it does.

But L5 would need to say "all"

Because that's literally the difference.

L4 works one in one or more places/sets of conditions.

L5 works in all places and conditions

I show you my purchase screen and you state it's L4 because it does not contain the phrase "All circumstances"

Which is correct.

It does not need work work everywhere to deliver what is in your screenshot.

And if it doesn't work everywhere it's not L5.

Also, they did not state driver attention is needed, they say the opposite that driver interaction is not needed only L5 has that

That is flat out wrong.

L4 requires no driver attention at all.

That's the entire point

L0-2: HUMAN is the driver. Always. Human attention is required ALWAYS.

L3: CAR is the driver SOME of the time. Human attention is NOT required while the car is driving. Human IS required to be available to take over with some notice (but not "immediately")- so you must still be awake and in the driver seat.

L4: CAR is the driver with one or more operational domains (locations, conditions, etc). Human attention is not required EVER. (if something happens that kicks the car outside its domain it's capable of safely pulling over and parking on its own- human can be asleep in the back, or not even in the car)

L5: Same as L4, but works in all domains.


Waymo is at L4 right now with their taxis in Arizona. No human driver in the car.


You were promised L4, but do not appear to understand what the levels even mean so think you were promised 5.

 

[Atari2600]

I point out that wording makes it extra clear it's L4. Because it does.

But L5 would need to say "all"

Because that's literally the difference.

L4 works one in one or more places/sets of conditions.

L5 works in all places and conditions




Which is correct.

It does not need work work everywhere to deliver what is in your screenshot.

And if it doesn't work everywhere it's not L5.



That is flat out wrong.

L4 requires no driver attention at all.

That's the entire point

L0-2: HUMAN is the driver. Always. Human attention is required ALWAYS.

L3: CAR is the driver SOME of the time. Human attention is NOT required while the car is driving. Human IS required to be available to take over with some notice (but not "immediately")- so you must still be awake and in the driver seat.

L4: CAR is the driver with one or more operational domains (locations, conditions, etc). Human attention is not required EVER. (if something happens that kicks the car outside its domain it's capable of safely pulling over and parking on its own- human can be asleep in the back, or not even in the car)

L5: Same as L4, but works in all domains.


Waymo is at L4 right now with their taxis in Arizona. No human driver in the car.


You were promised L4, but do not appear to understand what the levels even mean so think you were promised 5.

It is required when you are not in a geofenced area! It did not state geofenced nor user interaction in specific circumstances thus it is level 5. Lets just agree to disagree.

 

[Knightshade]

It is required when you are not in a geofenced area!

No, it's really, really not.

Geofencing is not required

Your graphic is factually wrong.

Here's the actual graphic from the people who wrote the standard:

Notice how geofencing is not mentioned. Because it's not "required"

It's ONE way that you can define an operational domain of an L4 car. It's not even close to the ONLY way- and it's not a REQUIRED way.


Waymos L4 taxis right now are geofenced to a small part of Arizona for example. That's one way of setting an operational domain.

But "everywhere during daylight" could also be a valid definition of an L4 operational domain.

Or "Everywhere at all except when it's snowing"

Or "Everywhere with detectable lane markings"

Or a slew of other options that aren't geofenced.



Notice also how a human is not required for anything above level 3. L4 specifically states is can handle the job even if a human is not available.

L4->L5 difference is simply the fact L5 works any time any where.

It did not state geofenced

Neither does the SAE definition of level 4.

nor user interaction in specific circumstances thus it is level 5. Lets just agree to disagree.

If you mean we can both agree you're wrong, sure.

L4 does not require user interaction. It's in the definition that it can do the task even if a human driver does not respond




Again the root cause here appears to be you've been operating on an incorrect understanding of what L4 is vs L5.



You were promised "In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat"

That only requires an L4 system... Which within its operational domain (which can by very very broad, or very very narrow, or anywhere in between) can conduct trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat.

L5 not required to do that.

 

[CertLive]

Well we are at 2. It is interesting to see how the graphics / terms are also differ / changing

 

[Knightshade]

Well we are at 2. It is interesting to see how the graphics / terms are also changing

Yeah, particularly the Feb/march 2019 change where they went from a broad L4 (or better ) definition to instead a specific list of features with no promise any would ever be better than L2.


There's 2 possible explanations for that I think I mentioned earlier- Either they want to insure it's only the pre-March-19 people they need to give refunds if/when they have to admit they can't deliver L4.... or they want to be able to book a larger % of FSD revenue collected from March 2019 onward by calling out specific features nearly all of which are already up and running (since they can only book revenue on delivered features).

Could also be some of both of course.

 

[Atari2600]

Here is the chart I found from SAE. SAE Level 4 shows an example of local driverless taxi. SAE J3016 automated-driving graphic

My graphic shows "This functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval. It is not possible to know exactly when it will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval, which may very widely by jurisdiction."

It does not say "These features can drive the vehicle under limited conditions and will not operate unless all required conditions are met."

 

[Knightshade]

Here is the chart I found from SAE. SAE Level 4 shows an example of local driverless taxi. SAE J3016 automated-driving graphic

That's saying the same thing I already told you.

L5 is just "L4 but under every possible condition/location"

As I said- You were promised

In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat

It doesn't say "every possible trip in every possible location"

It just says it'll be capable of conducting trips without requiring driver action.

That only requires an L4 system...

Which within its operational domain (which can by very very broad, or very very narrow, or anywhere in between) can conduct trips with no action required by the person in the drivers seat.

L5 not required to do that.

 

[TX_M3P+]

Allow me to define what "Feature Complete" means.

That means the car can kind of do, in a very vague, general, and unreliable way, each of the aspects of driving that it must do, to one day achieve real FSD. But it is nowhere near ready to go out and drive around a major city, take on and off ramps, merge, handle a 4 way stop sign intersection, construction zones, etc. on its own yet.

That may be your interpretation of what "Feature Complete" means but Elon stated Level 5 Autonomy by the end of 2020. Each level of autonomy is specifically defined, as seen here: The 6 Levels of Vehicle Autonomy Explained | Synopsys Automotive . Since we are at level 2 now, I don't see a snowball's chance in hell for getting to level 5 by EOY.

 

[TX_M3P+]

I just want to use AP/FSD once without saying out loud, "WTF is this car doing?!!?"

 

[Knightshade]

That may be your interpretation of what "Feature Complete" means but Elon stated Level 5 Autonomy by the end of 2020

Got a specific source for that?


Like one where he says they WILL have it then, not he "hopes" or "thinks they might" have it then in particular?


Because very clearly that's not happening.

In fact just earlier today he said they HOPE it'll be able to handle all roundabouts in about another full year from the re-write release that's coming in the next couple months.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294374864657162240


He also mentions it'll see and avoid potholes in the re-write

 

[TX_M3P+]

Got a specific source for that?


Like one where he says they WILL have it then, not he "hopes" or "thinks they might" have it then in particular?


Because very clearly that's not happening.

In fact just earlier today he said they HOPE it'll be able to handle all roundabouts in about another full year from the re-write release that's coming in the next couple months.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294374864657162240


He also mentions it'll see and avoid potholes in the re-write

It was in his video from Autonomy Day in China this year. I'll see if I can find it. He might have said "hopes" or "we might be close to" but I heard level 5 by the end of the year. I'll send a link if I can find the video again.

 

[TX_M3P+]

It was in his video from Autonomy Day in China this year. I'll see if I can find it. He might have said "hopes" or "we might be close to" but I heard level 5 by the end of the year. I'll send a link if I can find the video again.

Elon Musk Talks Tesla AI Chip, Autonomy Level 5, Accessing The Vector Space In Your Mind, & More

There does seem to be a lot of jumbling about in his verbiage, as is typical when he speaks, but he does say this... "I’m extremely confident that Level 5 or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think will happen very quickly. I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to Level 5 autonomy. I think — I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete this year." But I am in full agreement that we have no chance of getting to full level 5 by year's end.

 

[Fernand]

So now I get it, I mean the "levels". None of these specify at what level of
material and human casualty. It can never be 0. Actually, if you leave out
that parameter, we're just talking apples and oranges. My car runs at Level 5.
With my knee against the wheel I can sit back and eat Thai noodles, pretty
much anywhere, though perhaps not yet at an ideal ... casualty level.

So maybe THAT's why they're doing a 5:1 stock split end August !
.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon Musk Talks Tesla AI Chip, Autonomy Level 5, Accessing The Vector Space In Your Mind, & More

There does seem to be a lot of jumbling about in his verbiage, as is typical when he speaks, but he does say this... "I’m extremely confident that Level 5 or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think will happen very quickly. I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to Level 5 autonomy. I think — I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete this year." But I am in full agreement that we have no chance of getting to full level 5 by year's end.

Oh... yeah the "basic functionality for level 5" is very very very different from level 5.

"feature complete" is the basic functionality for L5.... and that's potentially just 6-10 weeks away from limited release per his tweet earlier today....it'll just suck so badly at that functionality you can't trust it to run unsupervised hence it'll remain L2 for the moment.

I am very much looking forward to see how the re-write turns out- L3 highway is all I ever expected when I paid for FSD, and that should be incredibly doable if it works half as well as has been suggested (including even seeing/avoiding potholes allegedly)

I'll probably let other folks be the ones to try out the L2 turning at intersections stuff for the first while