I wonder if 5 years hence, when larger and/or cheaper batteries become available from Tesla, if there will be a market for owners of 85 kwh batteries selling their, by then, 70 kwh batteries. The current 40 kwh batteries should be somewhere around 35 kwh by then, so it would be a nice upgrade. I'd think the used 85 kwh batteries would sell for something like 50% of the price of a new similarly sized battery at that point, perhaps something like $10K vs $20K for a new 60 kwh battery. The sellers might buy new 100 kwh batteries for around $35K, making their upgrade cost around $25K.
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That's the big question. The main reason to get the 60 kWh pack if the range isn't needed is that you're guaranteed Supercharger access with the hardware built in while you may not be able to add that to the 40 kWh cars (even with a battery upgrade later but that isn't know at this point). It's possible a battery upgrade in the future could add Supercharger hardware as well. It's a tough call.
The 40kWh pack should have an EPA range of about 132 miles (50% of the 85kWh pack, which matches the ratio 320:160 of the steady-55mph ranges most recently used by TM). Normal charge, we've learned, is 85% of range, so take that 132 miles down to 112 miles. Now project forward 8 years with battery degradation of 30% (down to 70% of original), and you're at 79 miles. That's still much more than the 45 miles you require, leaving you plenty of extra battery for some side trips, errands, etc.
As noted by others, though, the lack of Supercharging effectively consigns your Model S to an around-town, commuter role. If that's okay by you, then the 40kWh pack should be fine. Personally, I expect that I will do everything I can never to need to use an ICE vehicle again once my MS is delivered!
I am right there with you. I drive 55 miles round trip for work and have logged 9 months of daily distance. I would only not make 1 day. And even then the 85kWh wouldn't help me.
I think I road trip differently than most everyone on this board. I don't drive slow; I don't stop; I don't drive non-interstate; I get where I am going; I'll pass on the right too. The last road trip where I drove I went to Houston from Atlanta. And did the ~800 miles in 11 hours (10hours with time change). I do the 240 miles to Charlotte in 3 hours and 15 minutes (if I don't hit traffic). No electric car in the near future will be able to do this feat. Plus not being able to drive 800 miles is a great excuse to fly anyway.
The only real draw for supercharging are the ~300 trips where I would still want to drive. Too far for a single 85kWh charge, but short enough where a 30 minute Supercharge would be great. But at this point I don't think it is worth 10k either. I can rent a car, or take my wife's car if we have to long haul it. When I get her a Tesla we can opt for supercharging.
Related question...
Isn't an "originally 85 kWh, now 60 kWh" battery worth more than a "new 60 kWh" battery because of the different decay curves from 60 kWh downward on those two choices?
At the very least it appears that Solar City has a plan to use the Model S batteries after they are no longer good enough for Model S use.
AndreN
Member
I'm just going to call you Kowalski from now on. Can you drive from Denver to San Francisco in 15 hours?
Once the Supercharger network gets built out, it'll be interesting to see who can drive between certain cities the fastest. Tesla-ball run anyone? Definitely makes getting the 60kwh option more valuable.
My thought would be that you would lose more range with the standard suspension because of the increased wheel displacement over road irregularities. If you only drove on very smooth roads, the standard suspension might do better.
Brian from the Oak Brook Tesla store got back to me, and assured me that the EPA range numbers for the 40 and 60 kWh packs will be out before I need to finalize. At the rate that finalization invites have been going out, this would mean that this info must be coming out soon. Now I just need to decide what I need, and if (when) I decide to go with the 60, figure out how to come up with the extra 10k.
arondaniel
Il Sessanta Caricato
I'm getting the 40kwh battery, mainly an issue of price. My comfort level is ~60k and I'd rather have leather+tech+sunroof to enjoy every day than additional range I would use only 2% of the time. Like everyone else, we'll remain a 2 car family... But we usually fly anyway.
My commute is 60 congested miles in southeast va, which should be fine for a normal charge. It took me 12 years to drive 100k miles on my current car, well within the 40kwh warranty.
I fully anticipate buying a larger battery later... Too bad I'll never supercharge but, then again, long haul driving sucks (IMO) anyway.
My commute is 60 congested miles in southeast va, which should be fine for a normal charge. It took me 12 years to drive 100k miles on my current car, well within the 40kwh warranty.
I fully anticipate buying a larger battery later... Too bad I'll never supercharge but, then again, long haul driving sucks (IMO) anyway.
I am being told you won't be able to upgrade a car to a bigger battery, after the fact, with an upgrade kit or something.
Tesla has said in the past that a battery upgrade is technically possible (but going from 40 kWh to an 85 kWh pack 5 years from now for example would not add Supercharging capability, just added range) but that they don't have a policy on that yet so you should buy the car you want now and in the foreseeable future.
I think Tesla will intentionally keep things a bit vague to start with for the simple fact that they want people to convince themselves that the larger battery packs are necessary (increased profit margins for them). But if Tesla is still around 5 - 10 years from now, of course they're gonna offer battery replacement and upgrades for Model S owners with degraded batteries. Not only can they profit from the upgrades, they'd surely alienate a lot of Model S owners if not given the chance to continue using their car in the way they intended when they first made the purchase. Imagine your Mercedes-Benz was a shell of itself after just 7 years and you had to chuck it. I can assure you that'd be your last MB, and Tesla would want to avoid that sort of response from its customers. Plus, I wouldn't even rule out the ability to upgrade to Supercharging capability down the road. This is something Tesla will likely charge for in the future (and why shouldn't they?) and they'd be silly not to provide Supercharging upgrades (at a cost that's profitable to them of course) so that you can help further increase their earnings by making use of their Supercharging infrastructure.
You're most likely right. I'd still probably advise people get the pack that they need now with a little buffer for longer trips and possible battery degradation. We'll see how significant the Supercharger announcement is because if it is a real and impressive rollout then that could sway people towards the 60 kWh packs even if the 40 kWh pack satisfies most of their driving.
Kipernicus
Model S Res#P1440
An impressive supercharger rollout might also swing people down from the 85 to the 60
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Replacements, yes Tesla has to offer them. Upgrades, not necessarily (don't expect them and Tesla is not under any obligation to offer them). Heck, we don't even know if the battery rental/swapping thing might pan out. Bottom line is don't depend on it being offered.
Maybe you missed the bit about its physical impossibility; the car would have to be substantially rebuilt/rewired to handle it. It's not an add-on or an addable-on.
Unless you know the exact details of what that entails you can't say for sure, just as I can't. Physical impossibility is a bit of stretch though. They may even find ways to retrofit it more practically down the line. But if there's a way they can offer the upgrade, I'd bet they do in order to increase profits.
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