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455,000 active reservations at the time of the July Model 3 event.
- Thread starter Thomas Edison
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
So 1800 people are reserving the M3 everyday, even knowing that they won't get the car until late 2018 and won't qualify for the tax credit... let that sink in.
late 2018 would still be $3750 fed tax credit, and 1st half 2019 would still be $1875 credit.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Sure if you want to be exact, but my main point still holds, people are willing to buy the M3 even knowing for sure 50% if not 75% of the tax incentive will not be there when they get the car. Incentive going away has always been a theoretical threat to Tesla's long term prospect, now we're seeing some data point showing that it likely will not matter
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Oh yes forgot other countries existThey might be for orders outside the USA.
modamoda
Member
Some of 63,000 might have gone to S/X - Tesla kept anti-selling 3.
Tens of thousands of people have canceled their Tesla Model 3 orders was a story on this along w/a response from Elon.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
They are willing to reserve the car, which may translate into purchase.
It does the boggle the mind though to think that Tesla has to decide whether to build out production to serve up 1800 cars a day and fill the back order, or watch the delivery window widen. The gamble is enormous.
BluestarE3
Active Member
The story itself is fine, but as is typically the case, they chose a tabloid headline: "Tens of thousands of people have canceled...". The headline could just as well have been about the 455,000 net reservations or that 1,800 new reservations a day are being logged since Friday, but I guess that's just not click-baity enough.
n00bie
Member
I haven't seen one on the street yet, and I live very close to Fremont so that convinces me to believe most people aren't even aware that a car like model 3 exists yet. Wait 'til you see them on the street, with or without tax credit, it will sell like iPhone. Inside & out, it may even look better than the Model S for 1/2 of the price (to be fair, model S is already 5 yrs older). I'm shopping for a rear wheel drive car, and for the price (electric or not), you won't find a better rear wheel drive car than model 3 in look, reliability (less moving parts = less maintenance?), and technology? The car has full autonomy hardware.
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alseTrick
Active Member
Model 3 owners club says thousands of 3's have already been stockpiled and are just awaiting delivery...
A 11% cancellation rate is lower than I expected. However one thing to remember about all these reservations is that they are currently refundable deposits, these are not yet orders. And yet STILL people are cancelling.
I'll be interested in the total reservations to orders ratio in a few years, especially country by country. I suspect the US will have a higher ratio than the UK (where expected deliveries are not expected until 2019) for example.
Hopefully we're talking a maximum of 15% cancellation rate, but I can see it going high as 25%, maybe even more so if any bad news should occur between now and Q4.
I'll be interested in the total reservations to orders ratio in a few years, especially country by country. I suspect the US will have a higher ratio than the UK (where expected deliveries are not expected until 2019) for example.
Hopefully we're talking a maximum of 15% cancellation rate, but I can see it going high as 25%, maybe even more so if any bad news should occur between now and Q4.
n00bie
Member
the reveal part was a big disappointment and number of cancellation could have been higher.
There is NO way one can draw any conclusions about the reliability of the Model 3 yet considering only 30 production vehicles are in the hands of employees for only a few days.
But, we do have a track record w/the Model S and X. Perhaps you haven't seen reports like these, focusing on the drivetrain, battery pack and EV-specific bits, since that should be Tesla's core competency and a DU contains fewer moving parts than an ICE.
Drive Unit Replacement Poll
Drive Unit Replacement Poll
Model S Not Ready For Commercial Use Prime Time. Can I afford to own this car?
$2700 to fix MCU. Might DIY, but how much to reprogram new unit?
2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Wrap-Up | Edmunds - search for repair.
New P100d model S failed!!!
6th drive unit replacement and more
Just took delivery of my new Model X 90D - Not At All Silky Smooth...
There are MANY more folks who've had their DUs replaced for one reason or another (used to be mainly for noise and a lot fewer for failure, but the failures are still happening). Two Thirds of Early Model S Drivetrains May Fail By 60,000miles had some numbers from a survey long ago.
Remember, Model S 1st shipped in June 2012 and Model X end of Sept 2015.
What "should" be the case in terms of fewer moving parts == greater reliability has not turned out to be the case on the Model S.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The 'failures' were a QC lubrication problem. That should not be used to conclude anything about the general reliability of EV components.
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