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4680 Batteries from Giga Texas

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Exciting. But lots a questions still. When will they "run out" of 1270 batteries? And as they start rolling out the MY's with 4680 batteries from Giga Austin will they also continue to push out 1270 MY's from Fremont? If so, will we be able to choose?
Or
Will they simply stop producing MY's with 1270's altogether and shift those batteries to the S,3,X's. This seems easier to manager the sure to come internet outrage if they are producing both and expecting no one to notice.
 
Exciting. But lots a questions still. When will they "run out" of 1270 batteries? And as they start rolling out the MY's with 4680 batteries from Giga Austin will they also continue to push out 1270 MY's from Fremont? If so, will we be able to choose?
Or
Will they simply stop producing MY's with 1270's altogether and shift those batteries to the S,3,X's. This seems easier to manager the sure to come internet outrage if they are producing both and expecting no one to notice.

My Just for Fun prediction:
They will continue to sell both models (4680 and 1270) at the same price until 1270 supplies run out. The 4680 version will come detuned (less cells, lower voltage) to hit the same power metrics as the 1270 version with the biggest benefit being less weight. An added bonus to Tesla is reducing the amount off cells used per car so they can push out cars faster and be less bottlenecked with 4680 cell supplies. As 4680 production matures, they will be able to add more cells and make a higher range model (100kwh/500mi?). They can also offer a performance boost OTA down the line for detuned 4680 models to unlock their full output.
 
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My Just for Fun prediction:
They will continue to sell both models (4680 and 1270) at the same price until 1270 supplies run out. The 4680 version will come detuned (less cells, lower voltage) to hit the same power metrics as the 1270 version with the biggest benefit being less weight. An added bonus to Tesla is reducing the amount off cells used per car so they can push out cars faster and be less bottlenecked with 4680 cell supplies. As 4680 production matures, they will be able to add more cells and make a higher range model (100kwh/500mi?). They can also offer a performance boost OTA down the line for detuned 4680 models to unlock their full output.
Could only the MY P get the 4680 and the MY LR the 2170?
 
Any consensus that cars with 4680 will see a boost in range too? Trying to time a Y that would likely come from Fremont based on my location.
No firm data yet. LOTS of speculation. I've been scouring the forums for some form of confirmation. No one has received a 4680 car yet. to my knowledge.
Im in a similar boat I have a MYLR on order ODD: june-july. Thinking of upgrading to the MYP but that would move up my delivery date to March and I don't want to end up with the 2170's. Patience is a virtue and not one I'm good at upholding.
Ultimately, even if they "detune" the model Y initially to meet the current EPA range the weight reduction should provide some performance and range benefits. Some say the structural battery setup will weight 200-400 lbs less than the current MY. They might, here comes the speculation, find that once they put out a few MY's with 4680's they're getting more range and performance and up the price on the website. They would have to switch over to full 4680 MY production at that point. Not sure how soon they can do that. Although, during earning's call they made it clear that 4680's cells are not going to be the cause of the bottleneck in 2022, it will be the chip shortage. So presumably they could switch to the 4680 MY's completely if they had enough chips.
 
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Could only the MY P get the 4680 and the MY LR the 2170?
No, they don’t do enough volume to take up the entire Y production out of Austin once it its rolling and Austin will be producing Y’s with structural packs only, which is a different chassis.
Also.. they have made it clear Austin will produce Y’s for eastern 2/3 of nation, Fremont the remainder. eastern 2/3 is not going to buy only MYP’s.
In theory they could do two versions of battery pack but .... for efficiency in manufacturing, the likelihood seems nil.
 
That video gives me anxiety for the Fremont MYP we are expecting delivery on Feb 15. I know we'll end up accepting in the end but I'm going to be bummed we miss out on this.
Video was inaccurate about Austin Model Y will be the only one using aluminum casting parts. Others have this too, just different amount. We don't know yet, but imagine the cost of replacing of in these large casting parts after an accident.
 

This is a deep dive into the physics of range and performance comparisons of the 2170’s vs 4680’s. It may surprise you that range won’t change much but performance Could with an estimated 200kg weight reduction. It’s a lot easier for Tesla to “detune” the power than it would be to decrease the range. And because the range will basically be the same all they need to do to keep the old and new model y comparable is a slight detune. So the switch is a lot less difficult than people are speculating.
 

This is a deep dive into the physics of range and performance comparisons of the 2170’s vs 4680’s. It may surprise you that range won’t change much but performance Could with an estimated 200kg weight reduction. It’s a lot easier for Tesla to “detune” the power than it would be to decrease the range. And because the range will basically be the same all they need to do to keep the old and new model y comparable is a slight detune. So the switch is a lot less difficult than people are speculating.
Thank you for sharing.
 
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Why would anyone in their right mind think they’re all the sudden going to bump range in new pack Y’s? Like put yourself in Elons shoes for a half a minute…

It’s idiotic to think they’ll do anything but match current capacity.
Why idiotic? It’s a lever for Tesla to increase the lead on competition. Acceleration gap is closing with other EVs so winning on efficiency and range though innovation is a differentiator. A 400 mile Y and 3 would crush any current and near future competition.