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4680 Batteries from Giga Texas

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100% agree. That’s a 16% increase. Do combustion engines get this sort of mpg gain on 4 yrs? Prob not.

Agreed by 2026 who knows with EV’s !
Exactly. We're holding EV's to an unrealistic standard. No one has ever had issues with ICE vehicles only getting 300 miles of range. I understand there are gas stations everywhere to help offset the need for even longer range ICE vehicles, but we'll eventually get there with charging stations one day too.
 
Who here thinks there is no way Tesla will boost ranges of the Model Y to the point of approaching Model S numbers? Not going to happen IMO. At best we may see a 5-10% range bump closer to that of the model 3.

Tesla will never cannibalize their own SX sales while they slowly migrate those cars to 4680 over time.

I disagree. Elon multiple times mentioned that Range improvement is their number one priority and Tesla knows that there are lot of people holding out in buying EV's because of the range. Now, they might not bring 3 and Y to more than 400 right away but, 375 miles for a Model Y is something reasonably we can expect.

And, they wont be cannibalize Model S and X sales with Y and 3. S and X will always be their luxury versions and compared to 3 and Y, number of sales for S and X are very low. I read somewhere that average household income for S buyers is 227k and X is 550k. People who are interested in those will most definitely buy them not just for their range but also much higher quality and may be buy Y or 3 as well.

3 and Y are their bread and butter because of their price, it only makes sense to make it more and more competitive and outsell other EV's. One way to do is give them more range.

and remember 375 is more like 300 in Tesla because of the way they test their cars vs other evs, whose 300 is more like 270.
 
I disagree. Elon multiple times mentioned that Range improvement is their number one priority and Tesla knows that there are lot of people holding out in buying EV's because of the range. Now, they might not bring 3 and Y to more than 400 right away but, 375 miles for a Model Y is something reasonably we can expect.

And, they wont be cannibalize Model S and X sales with Y and 3. S and X will always be their luxury versions and compared to 3 and Y, number of sales for S and X are very low. I read somewhere that average household income for S buyers is 227k and X is 550k. People who are interested in those will most definitely buy them not just for their range but also much higher quality and may be buy Y or 3 as well.

3 and Y are their bread and butter because of their price, it only makes sense to make it more and more competitive and outsell other EV's. One way to do is give them more range.

and remember 375 is more like 300 in Tesla because of the way they test their cars vs other evs, whose 300 is more like 270.
Oh I agree with your comments…for long term.
Initially though and optically it would seem a bad marketing move to sell an MY at 2/3 the price of a MS LR and have similar range…given the cost of batteries. Hence I would think they will go only as far as what would still create enough of a gap from the flagship models to 3Y.

I believe they will gradually increase the range and only when MS and MX receive their own range bumps again (through 4680 or some other tech) will Tesla max the Y/3 range.
As it is 3LR is already close to the MS to begin with..any more would possibly increase it beyond. That’s a marketing faux pas if you ask me and would never happen.

The 3Y are Teslas bread and butter yes agreed. But they also won’t sacrifice sales to SX by reducing the value proposition to those flagship cars.

Odd the X income buyers is double that of X lol. The price for either is literally the same. 🤷🏽‍♂️
 
Aside from all this chatter over range, weight, cost, performance etc what’s important to me is an improved CHARGING PROFILE. I could easily live with the performance of my 2020 LR AWD Y for many years if the CHARGING PROFILE would be improved. Say 10% to 80% in 15 minutes on a level 3 Super Charger.

So what is being said about the 4680 charging profile?
 
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Folks don't seem to understand that Tesla has been perfectly capable of putting whatever range they want in the vehicles regardless of the battery evolution. It just costs money (and weight). The longest range Teslas are running 2-generation-back 18650 little cells. They just use a ton of them.

Yes, long term the sweet spot seems to be round 400 miles of range - it meets so many use cases that adding more is diminishing returns.

No, they won't jump to 400+ mile range right away with 4680 packs. It's gonna have roughly the same range as the existing model Y - it will simply be much cheaper and faster to build so they can get the backlog down (and maneuver on price if/when needed). Range can go up when they're good and ready (and when they have it balanced with the range of the S and X which need to remain premium).
 
Aside from all this chatter over range, weight, cost, performance etc what’s important to me is an improved CHARGING PROFILE. I could easily live with the performance of my 2020 LR AWD Y for many years if the CHARGING PROFILE would be improved. Say 10% to 80% in 15 minutes on a level 3 Super Charger. That would greatly increase the quality of our life with our Tesla.

So what is being said about the 4680 charging profile?

Due to the completely new cell tab design, yeah much faster charging should be possible. That said, you still have to cool the pack, handle the current, and a variety of other things, plus have a charger that goes-to-11. The biggest near term gain I could see if that 4680 cars might be able to charge near current peak rate over a much wider range of charge-states (existing cars only hit peak charge speed when mostly empty and at ideal temp)
 
I was also curious if the larger batteries generate more heat or any other issues related to “size”.

I have a MYP coming in a week and just chose today to “Schedule a delivery date” with the current Fremont build vs HOLDING /Waiting 3-6 months, after a lot of discussion and research.

I’m moving from a TUNDRA which inexplicably is worth what I paid 3 years ago?! (Built in SA, TX) Served me well in Texas just not easy in DC.
Now the ‘22 TUNDRA moved to two new engines choices for ‘22 after decades of a 14-17mpg …and now it is a $15K higher price.

So I’m wondering how fast the GIGA Austin can get up to a reliable and quality build level.
And how much more will the MYP go up in price over the next 6-9 months.
Perhaps in three years I’ll upgrade then, if there is a 400 mile Tesla MY I would be ecstatic and surely upgrade.

$15K more in 2025?
 
I was also curious if the larger batteries generate more heat or any other issues related to “size”.

I have a MYP coming in a week and just chose today to “Schedule a delivery date” with the current Fremont build vs HOLDING /Waiting 3-6 months, after a lot of discussion and research.

I’m moving from a TUNDRA which inexplicably is worth what I paid 3 years ago?! (Built in SA, TX) Served me well in Texas just not easy in DC.
Now the ‘22 TUNDRA moved to two new engines choices for ‘22 after decades of a 14-17mpg …and now it is a $15K higher price.

So I’m wondering how fast the GIGA Austin can get up to a reliable and quality build level.
And how much more will the MYP go up in price over the next 6-9 months.
Perhaps in three years I’ll upgrade then, if there is a 400 mile Tesla MY I would be ecstatic and surely upgrade.

$15K more in 2022

Average MYP costs around $70k (after TTL), and I think it is almost near maxed out in terms of price range due to competition within the brand and outside. It was supposed to be cheaper/budget model below the MX which is around $100k now. If the price reaches around $85k, it will not be the mass selling SUV on the market.
 
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Elon said you either want the first cars off the line, because they are careful, or the last ones when they are finished scaling up. The ones in between are the ones that have stuff missed on them as they are ramping up
 
I disagree. Elon multiple times mentioned that Range improvement is their number one priority and Tesla knows that there are lot of people holding out in buying EV's because of the range. Now, they might not bring 3 and Y to more than 400 right away but, 375 miles for a Model Y is something reasonably we can expect.

And, they wont be cannibalize Model S and X sales with Y and 3. S and X will always be their luxury versions and compared to 3 and Y, number of sales for S and X are very low. I read somewhere that average household income for S buyers is 227k and X is 550k. People who are interested in those will most definitely buy them not just for their range but also much higher quality and may be buy Y or 3 as well.

3 and Y are their bread and butter because of their price, it only makes sense to make it more and more competitive and outsell other EV's. One way to do is give them more range.

and remember 375 is more like 300 in Tesla because of the way they test their cars vs other evs, whose 300 is more like 270.
This is wishful, self-interested thinking. The internet blogs are BS.

Tesla has stated many times, including at the Earnings Call, that this year the emphasis is on execution and optimizing the business. ie, PROFIT.
The new MY v2.0 chassis will be faster to manufacture, be structurally improved, and the 4680 battery pack will roughly match the 82kWh 2170 pack currently shipping.
Not a significant range increase.

4680 batteries remain precious. Tesla expects to have enough to meet their production goals - but assumes 3rd parties (Panasonic and others) are able to add to the pie.
First, Tesla MY backlog will take the year to work down. Only Fremont and Austin will have 4680's. Berlin won't get 4680 batteries yet, they will go with 2170 and LFP.
Second, the SEMI is in pre-production, and the CT is coming - and both are designed around 4680 exclusively, and require massive quantities.
So don't expect Tesla to be leaping ahead with range improvements just yet.

Aside from battery production limitations, there's also no market competition for increased range as yet. There will be, but not any time soon.
I give it another 18 months before Tesla jumps the range on the MY in any significant way.
 
I was also curious if the larger batteries generate more heat or any other issues related to “size”.

I have a MYP coming in a week and just chose today to “Schedule a delivery date” with the current Fremont build vs HOLDING /Waiting 3-6 months, after a lot of discussion and research.

I’m moving from a TUNDRA which inexplicably is worth what I paid 3 years ago?! (Built in SA, TX) Served me well in Texas just not easy in DC.
Now the ‘22 TUNDRA moved to two new engines choices for ‘22 after decades of a 14-17mpg …and now it is a $15K higher price.

So I’m wondering how fast the GIGA Austin can get up to a reliable and quality build level.
And how much more will the MYP go up in price over the next 6-9 months.
Perhaps in three years I’ll upgrade then, if there is a 400 mile Tesla MY I would be ecstatic and surely upgrade.

$15K more in 2025?
Competition, and the reduction of the MY order backlog, indicates prices will stabilize or fall.
The only mitigating factor is battery production - for Tesla competitors, that's a real limitation, and Tesla won't have that problem.

So when batteries become a problem for the competition, Tesla will increase range.
At that point, Tesla can manage the market to suit. Hold prices until their factories are full, then increase prices to manage the order backlog.
Hhmmmm, sounds familiar.....
 
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This is wishful, self-interested thinking. The internet blogs are BS.

Tesla has stated many times, including at the Earnings Call, that this year the emphasis is on execution and optimizing the business. ie, PROFIT.
The new MY v2.0 chassis will be faster to manufacture, be structurally improved, and the 4680 battery pack will roughly match the 82kWh 2170 pack currently shipping.
Not a significant range increase.

4680 batteries remain precious. Tesla expects to have enough to meet their production goals - but assumes 3rd parties (Panasonic and others) are able to add to the pie.
First, Tesla MY backlog will take the year to work down. Only Fremont and Austin will have 4680's. Berlin won't get 4680 batteries yet, they will go with 2170 and LFP.
Second, the SEMI is in pre-production, and the CT is coming - and both are designed around 4680 exclusively, and require massive quantities.
So don't expect Tesla to be leaping ahead with range improvements just yet.

Aside from battery production limitations, there's also no market competition for increased range as yet. There will be, but not any time soon.
I give it another 18 months before Tesla jumps the range on the MY in any significant way.
Given Teslas fanfare around the significance of the new battery, I find it hard to absorb that they will simply quietly introduce it now without any marketing around benefits to the consumer. If it’s one thing Tesla does well, it’s marketing their tech advantage.

Ramping up production slowly suggests the P trim may be the first to receive the new batteries/cast with a corresponding range and or power increase. Even if marginal, it’s something different and new …and definitely corresponds to Teslas past behaviour in hyping new technology to soothe investors and consumers alike.

To simply introduce such a significant change to their manufacturing process without some sort of end user advantage would be missed opportunity from a PR perspective. That’s not something Tesla usually misses. Ie. Introducing plaid over a year ago…new tri motor design. Hyped up massive.
 
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Given Teslas fanfare around the significance of the new battery, I find it hard to absorb that they will simply quietly introduce it now without any marketing around benefits to the consumer. If it’s one thing Tesla does well, it’s marketing their tech advantage.

Ramping up production slowly suggests the P trim may be the first to receive the new batteries/cast with a corresponding range and or power increase. Even if marginal, it’s something different and new …and definitely corresponds to Teslas past behaviour in hyping new technology to soothe investors and consumers alike.

To simply introduce such a significant change to their manufacturing process without some sort of end user advantage would be missed opportunity from a PR perspective. That’s not something Tesla usually misses. Ie. Introducing plaid over a year ago…new tri motor design. Hyped up massive.
Quite an interesting take and one I have to agree with.

Across the board.. from forums to Twitter, to Facebook groups.. everybody knows about the upcoming changeover to the 4680 battery pack. Literally, the most popular question is should I hold my order for the new 4680 battery? Even the most casual of Tesla fans who just placed their order are asking this. Why go through the trouble of having a very LOUD media battery day event.. promoting increases like 16% more range.. 5x energy capacity.. 6x more power.. etc etc.. to finally launch the new pack with the exact same range, performance, and charging capabilities and the only benefit is saving a few % off your internal production cost.

This slide is taken straight from their live event:

1644500517186.png



We certainly know when Tesla wants to be quiet, they certainly know how to do that as well. More significant things like price drops & increases happen with absolutely no preview.. or even delivering customer vehicles missing hardware that was previously installed.
 
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Folks don't seem to understand that Tesla has been perfectly capable of putting whatever range they want in the vehicles regardless of the battery evolution. It just costs money (and weight). The longest range Teslas are running 2-generation-back 18650 little cells. They just use a ton of them.

Yes, long term the sweet spot seems to be round 400 miles of range - it meets so many use cases that adding more is diminishing returns.

No, they won't jump to 400+ mile range right away with 4680 packs. It's gonna have roughly the same range as the existing model Y - it will simply be much cheaper and faster to build so they can get the backlog down (and maneuver on price if/when needed). Range can go up when they're good and ready (and when they have it balanced with the range of the S and X which need to remain premium).
Nope, they have already jammed all the batteries they could in 3 and Y, there is no more space left for any batteries in 3 and Y unless they do any design changes.
Next logical thing to increase range is the structural battery which is what they are going to do and that WILL increase the range.
Range WILL be improved in model Y with the upcoming changes. It has nothing to do with the S and X. If I have to guess, the Y range will be in the ball park of 375 miles but not more than that is what I believe.
 
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This is wishful, self-interested thinking. The internet blogs are BS.

Tesla has stated many times, including at the Earnings Call, that this year the emphasis is on execution and optimizing the business. ie, PROFIT.
The new MY v2.0 chassis will be faster to manufacture, be structurally improved, and the 4680 battery pack will roughly match the 82kWh 2170 pack currently shipping.
Not a significant range increase.

4680 batteries remain precious. Tesla expects to have enough to meet their production goals - but assumes 3rd parties (Panasonic and others) are able to add to the pie.
First, Tesla MY backlog will take the year to work down. Only Fremont and Austin will have 4680's. Berlin won't get 4680 batteries yet, they will go with 2170 and LFP.
Second, the SEMI is in pre-production, and the CT is coming - and both are designed around 4680 exclusively, and require massive quantities.
So don't expect Tesla to be leaping ahead with range improvements just yet.

Aside from battery production limitations, there's also no market competition for increased range as yet. There will be, but not any time soon.
I give it another 18 months before Tesla jumps the range on the MY in any significant way.
This is like, textbook precision laying out the big picture. Sharp work.
 
Quite an interesting take and one I have to agree with.

Across the board.. from forums to Twitter, to Facebook groups.. everybody knows about the upcoming changeover to the 4680 battery pack. Literally, the most popular question is should I hold my order for the new 4680 battery? Even the most casual of Tesla fans who just placed their order are asking this. Why go through the trouble of having a very LOUD media battery day event.. promoting increases like 16% more range.. 5x energy capacity.. 6x more power.. etc etc.. to finally launch the new pack with the exact same range, performance, and charging capabilities and the only benefit is saving a few % off your internal production cost.

This slide is taken straight from their live event:

View attachment 767315


We certainly know when Tesla wants to be quiet, they certainly know how to do that as well. More significant things like price drops & increases happen with absolutely no preview.. or even delivering customer vehicles missing hardware that was previously installed.
Tesla isn’t exactly a fountain of free-flowing truth. The list of claims about various vehicles, hardware, software that have been inaccurate is much, much longer than those that came true. The company has done some truly remarkable things, world-changing. It has also made some epic exaggerations and mistakes.
 
Tesla isn’t exactly a fountain of free-flowing truth. The list of claims about various vehicles, hardware, software that have been inaccurate is much, much longer than those that came true. The company has done some truly remarkable things, world-changing. It has also made some epic exaggerations and mistakes.
Fundamentally, Tesla has been holding a Master Class in leveraging the Blogsphere.
Once they've leaked, rumor-mongered, or video-boosted a subject, they let the gossip channels run with it. Always to their benefit.
BUT
Nothing gets out - nothing - that Tesla doesn't want out, at the time of their choosing, and to the degree of depth they dictate.

I've yet to see a company excel at this like Tesla - fire the PR and Marketing Depts, leverage the Internet clickbait fishmongers at ZERO COST, manage thru Twitter.
Ford, GM, etc spend $Billions a year on ads, publicity, etc. All wasted by comparison.
 
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My guess: they will initially launch Y + 4680 with more range capability but limited by software. Once Fremont roll over is complete for 4680 they remove the software limit and broadly announce the increased range.
Just my hopeful guess. :)
won't happen. see other posts.
batteries are not just laying around. Tesla has other vehicles that need specifically 4680 batteries as well.
There's no competitive need for more range yet, and won't be any time soon. The competitors are already having trouble finding batteries.