4680 Batteries from Giga Texas

[Stook02ss]

won't happen. see other posts.
batteries are not just laying around. Tesla has other vehicles that need specifically 4680 batteries as well.
There's no competitive need for more range yet, and won't be any time soon. The competitors are already having trouble finding batteries.

While I agree with you here, this is another reason why I and many other MYP owners are really on edge about the new vehicle. The fact they are going to, most likely, use as little battery as possible, makes me think the weight savings will be every bit as noticable as some suggest.

I'd be really annoyed to buy a MYP now that ends up handling significantly worse compared to a 300-400lb lighter MY LR that comes out of Texas... and that's absolutely what will happen if you shave 8% off the weight of the car.

 

[ranss12]

3 or 4 weeks ago there were articles in Electric, Insideevs, etc that said that Model Y production was expected to start in Austin within a week or so. Since then I've heard/read nothing, and nothing seems to be coming out of Austin except a few preproduction Ys. Does anyone know what's holding things up?

 

[CaliX]

3 or 4 weeks ago there were articles in Electric, Insideevs, etc that said that Model Y production was expected to start in Austin within a week or so. Since then I've heard/read nothing, and nothing seems to be coming out of Austin except a few preproduction Ys. Does anyone know what's holding things up?

Crash testing would be my guess. Maybe it did perform they way Tesla expected.

 

[tangible1]

While I agree with you here, this is another reason why I and many other MYP owners are really on edge about the new vehicle. The fact they are going to, most likely, use as little battery as possible, makes me think the weight savings will be every bit as noticable as some suggest.

I'd be really annoyed to buy a MYP now that ends up handling significantly worse compared to a 300-400lb lighter MY LR that comes out of Texas... and that's absolutely what will happen if you shave 8% off the weight of the car.

It's not about MYP vs MYLR. It's about the chassis.
Both Fremont and Austin will deliver the same MY chassis - v2.0 with F+R megacasts and structural battery pack.
There may be some minor "one before the other" factory deliveries, but they will roughly coincide.
The conversion at Fremont is already being started, with a new weatherproof causeway between the Sprung structures and the chassis fab shop.

There have been stacks of thousands of Front Megacasts stored on the lot at Fremont since summer.
While Rear Megacasts have been used in MY cars since spring '21, the Fronts have been stockpiled, waiting for 4680 yields to improve.
They're about ready.

As for handling characteristics, 400lbs weight reduction can't do much but help.
I have to assume Tesla will modify the suspension to suit.
But yes, that means some suspense in what they do. I would hope, like you, that they are reading the reviews, which are universally mediocre on the ride quality.

 

[tangible1]

3 or 4 weeks ago there were articles in Electric, Insideevs, etc that said that Model Y production was expected to start in Austin within a week or so. Since then I've heard/read nothing, and nothing seems to be coming out of Austin except a few preproduction Ys. Does anyone know what's holding things up?

that's because the Blogs live on clickbait. Anything to get you to click.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Nope, they have already jammed all the batteries they could in 3 and Y, there is no more space left for any batteries in 3 and Y unless they do any design changes.
Next logical thing to increase range is the structural battery which is what they are going to do and that WILL increase the range.
Range WILL be improved in model Y with the upcoming changes. It has nothing to do with the S and X. If I have to guess, the Y range will be in the ball park of 375 miles but not more than that is what I believe.

I was talking design changes - the cars have the ranges they were designed for.

 

[advocate8]

Fundamentally, Tesla has been holding a Master Class in leveraging the Blogsphere.
Once they've leaked, rumor-mongered, or video-boosted a subject, they let the gossip channels run with it. Always to their benefit.
BUT
Nothing gets out - nothing - that Tesla doesn't want out, at the time of their choosing, and to the degree of depth they dictate.

I've yet to see a company excel at this like Tesla - fire the PR and Marketing Depts, leverage the Internet clickbait fishmongers at ZERO COST, manage thru Twitter.
Ford, GM, etc spend $Billions a year on ads, publicity, etc. All wasted by comparison.

bingo. meanwhile the complaints among the fanboys, here and elsewhere, about “FUD" are non-stop. Tesla could fix some of that with better, clearer approaches to engagement, explaining things, undercutting the hogwash you see from the likes of GM... it could def do an information campaign about the nature of a “recall” that only involves a couple of minutes updating software from your home wifi.
There is controlling information and there is OVER-controlling information.

 

[Stook02ss]

It's not about MYP vs MYLR. It's about the chassis.
Both Fremont and Austin will deliver the same MY chassis - v2.0 with F+R megacasts and structural battery pack.
There may be some minor "one before the other" factory deliveries, but they will roughly coincide.
The conversion at Fremont is already being started, with a new weatherproof causeway between the Sprung structures and the chassis fab shop.

There have been stacks of thousands of Front Megacasts stored on the lot at Fremont since summer.
While Rear Megacasts have been used in MY cars since spring '21, the Fronts have been stockpiled, waiting for 4680 yields to improve.
They're about ready.

I'm well aware of the fact that its a different chassis, but when the switch happens, the weight savings are likely to be very noticable. So, for someone who's buying a MYP because they value acceleration, braking and handling, it'll be a tough pill to swallow if not only do the 4680 MYP offer more in that regard, but also the MY LR.

Handling and braking are two things that stand apart imo when it comes to the 2170 to 4680 switch. If Tesla wants, they can gimp the new 4680 cars in most regards so they perform relatively on par with the 2170. They can restrict the power output, they can tweak the usable battery capacity, etc. They can do all of that to make it to where they are performing similarly in terms of range and acceleration.

Handling and braking though? Braking wise, they'd need to go with less hardware or gimp how quickly the system brakes in order to offset that, which I highly doubt they'll bother doing. As such, the 4680 will likely brake faster and have less fade than the 2170, regardless of what Tesla does. Same for the handling - at the end of the day, 300+ lbs is 300+ lbs. You'll notice it. And finally, the structure is supposed to be stiffer.

So, again, it'll suck if you buy a MYP and the MY LR (or MYP) that roll off the production line a few months later can handle better and brake faster. That said, what can you do. Nothing.... I'm just pointing it out.

 

[Daekwan]

While I agree with you here, this is another reason why I and many other MYP owners are really on edge about the new vehicle. The fact they are going to, most likely, use as little battery as possible, makes me think the weight savings will be every bit as noticable as some suggest.

I'd be really annoyed to buy a MYP now that ends up handling significantly worse compared to a 300-400lb lighter MY LR that comes out of Texas... and that's absolutely what will happen if you shave 8% off the weight of the car.

Yep. I believe Elon was quoted as saying they want to use the 4680 cells as soon as possible.

It's the primary reason why I'm also back on the fence. I can sell my '21 MYSR any day for basically $59k.. have several sitting offers at the price.. and can just into a '22 MYP immediately. I don't even need to worry about delivery dates, as I can just drive my wife's car until the MYP gets delivered. But the biggest thing holding me is I don't want to spend almost $70k on a new one that looks & feels too much like my old car. Right now there just isn't enough difference between a 2021 and 2022 Model Y to justify the upgrade. And I'd personally be heartbroken if I took delivery of another Fremont-built Model Y right now and just a month or two later.. Y's are pouring out of Austin.

Hell even just thicker/better paint.. I don't plan on buying Tesla unless it's Austin-built w/4680 cells.

 

[Daekwan]

that's because the Blogs live on clickbait. Anything to get you to click.

I certainly agree there. And the sources are so random.

Granted all this is coming back to the earnings call where Elon did say Austin should be producing cars by the end of Q1. That said, as someone else pointed out. Telsa.. specifically Elon.. has a long line of promises. With just as many hits.. as there are misses.

The only reason I have faith in the Austin Q1 deliveries is the massive amount of backlog. The longer Tesla waits to fill that list, the more new & competitive EV's pop up. Right now it certainly seems like everybody is anxious to buy a $60K Model Y.. but the longer those people have to wait on a car.. the more they will start looking elsewhere. Especially if they absolutely need to buy something to drive right now.

 

[TEXAS-Y-P]

I agree with "TANGIBLE1" about the suspension change, I seen on drone videos, from the Giga Austin factory and there were hundreds of struts in the recycle bin, now it makes sense, why they were in the dump bin.

 

[kithytom]

With so many confirmed Austin Model Ys spotted, why no single VIN with A reported in the forum? demo car? for other countries?

 

[Stook02ss]

With so many confirmed Austin Model Ys spotted, why no single VIN with A reported in the forum? demo car? for other countries?

Definitely not for other countries. They could be pre-production cars, but they've been building test cars for months.... presumably some of those were pre-production.

We know the one Tesla facility has only made about 1 million 4680 cells as of mid-January. It takes around 1000 cells to make a single Model Y battery, so that one facility has only made enough cells for 1,000 Model Ys (as of January).... a drop in the bucket in the big picture. Maybe there have been other providers and they've made another 250-500k cells (who knows)... but I doubt they've amassed enough to build more than 2,000-3,000 at this point. That's of course assuming all Austin cars are 4680s, which they may not be. We'll see.

My guess is that, if these are production cars, they are going to sit there for a while.... until many, many, many more are built and join them. Probably more than they've got in terms of available 4680 cells. I'm sure they don't want to mix in a few hundred 4680 each month with the thousands upon thousands of 2170 Model Ys coming out of Freemont. It'd be chaos as people juggle trying to get the one Freemont car.... and people would be cancelling orders. No, it makes sense to ship out several thousand at once.... and if I'm right about that, its going to be a month or two before we see them getting assigned to customers... even if they are production cars.

 

[nate704]

With so many confirmed Austin Model Ys spotted, why no single VIN with A reported in the forum? demo car? for other countries?

Tesla said end of Q1 will be when the actual delivery would begin, so we wait until then.

 

[goin2drt]

With so many confirmed Austin Model Ys spotted, why no single VIN with A reported in the forum? demo car? for other countries?

Build up stock. Then they can shut down Freemont to transition over then start delivering the same car from both places. As I have stated before there is ZERO chance there will be two different MYP’s being built and delivered at the same time.

 

[davidski]

Build up stock. Then they can shut down Freemont to transition over then start delivering the same car from both places. As I have stated before there is ZERO chance there will be two different MYP’s being built and delivered at the same time.

That makes good sense to me.

 

[tangible1]

With so many confirmed Austin Model Ys spotted, why no single VIN with A reported in the forum? demo car? for other countries?

They are demo cars for now. The demo showrooms have been reported as expecting arrivals soon, so that's what I expect the cars out of Austin are.
If they were for customers the blogs would be going nuts on the 'leaks'.
I love how Tesla left them outside overnight, just for the drones to see and have 'breaking news'. I counted 104 cars on yesterday's drone video.

At some point they will become 'inventory cars' for sale to the public as slightly used.

 

[kithytom]

Meanwhile people rushing to Tesla stores in hoping to find a Austin Y and “leak” them all over