Panasonic was, in hindsight, spot on. Tesla market cap soared and Panasonic was doing all the dirty grunt work at little profit. If Tesla had not been so intent on grinding Panasonic profits away then maybe Panosonic would have built more capacity for Tesla.
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4680 batteries, what is the advantage?
- Thread starter MontyFloyd
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Brando
Active Member
Tesla Model 3 & Model Y Outsell All New Cars In California In Q1 2022 — Even Gas Cars - CleanTechnica
Tesla Models 3 and Y have outsold all new cars in California in the first quarter of 2022. Even internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
cleantechnica.com
Poor Tesla, so busy cheating Panasonic that Panasonic didn't make enough batteries. Just how nativewolf has these insights, I find amazing.
Just imagine how many sales Tesla lost. Interesting stats from above article.
Tesla was definitely grinding Panasonic, but Pana made 2170 and 18650 batteries for them, not 4680.Tesla Model 3 & Model Y Outsell All New Cars In California In Q1 2022 — Even Gas Cars - CleanTechnica
Tesla Models 3 and Y have outsold all new cars in California in the first quarter of 2022. Even internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
Poor Tesla, so busy cheating Panasonic that Panasonic didn't make enough batteries. Just how nativewolf has these insights, I find amazing.
Just imagine how many sales Tesla lost. Interesting stats from above article.
In fact they decided at one point that they would not make 4680, partly due to immature design, partly due to insufficient profit opportunity.
But Tesla did not have a battery shortage for any of their production vehicles (M3, Y, S, X). Slow deliveries of these were due to other issues.
Of course, the CT, Semi, MY v2.0, all suffer because 4680 isn't available in any quantity yet.
Gauss Guzzler
Safety Score = 42
Tesla opened 3 new car factories this year, each with the same capacity as the Fremont factory which had produced every Tesla prior. And yet they still don't have any shortage of batteries, 4680 or otherwise - they still have plenty of batteries to supply as many cars as these 4 factories can produce.
Musk has a terrible habit of announcing products much too far in advance with grossly overoptimistic timelines, and the 4680 is no exception. But there's no indication that the company is running/growing/developing at a substandard rate. In fact, they are running/growing/developing at a faster rate than any other company in history - by every metric.
Funny that you would describe a car company which has *doubled* its production and sales every year with the phrase "slow deliveries due to issues" and criticize them for not producing 3 new vehicles on 3 new platforms in the same (covid) year that they opened 3 new factories, began production of a significantly novel battery technology, and had their very first profitable year.
Musk has a terrible habit of announcing products much too far in advance with grossly overoptimistic timelines, and the 4680 is no exception. But there's no indication that the company is running/growing/developing at a substandard rate. In fact, they are running/growing/developing at a faster rate than any other company in history - by every metric.
Funny that you would describe a car company which has *doubled* its production and sales every year with the phrase "slow deliveries due to issues" and criticize them for not producing 3 new vehicles on 3 new platforms in the same (covid) year that they opened 3 new factories, began production of a significantly novel battery technology, and had their very first profitable year.
sorry, 4680 batteries are in short supply.
otherwise you'd be driving your CT by now, and the Semi would be hauling freight.
Oh, and all variants of the MY would already be on 4680 cells. Not just the AWD at approx 200 units a week from Austin.
however, all other battery types that Tesla utilizes are not a problem. As I stated.
other manufacturers aren't quite as forward-thinking and their production will be battery limited.
Gauss Guzzler
Safety Score = 42
Really? I'd be driving a CT that was built at a factory that didn't even exist 6 weeks ago? Man, I musta placed my reservation early! And paid extra for overnight shipping!
Are you telling me that GigaTexas has an entire CT production line up and ready with thousands of workers just standing there staring blankly at it, not knowing what to do? That'd be pretty weird. Impressive, since the factory just barely opened. But still weird.
Are you telling me that GigaTexas has an entire CT production line up and ready with thousands of workers just standing there staring blankly at it, not knowing what to do? That'd be pretty weird. Impressive, since the factory just barely opened. But still weird.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
how do you define nonsense.
the facts are
1. maybe 200 MY AWD per week are being built. These utilize maybe 3/4 of the expected MYLR 4680 requirement of some 960 cells.
2. zero CT are being built
3. there might be 3-4 SEMI's in existence
So the 4680 production volume remains fundamentally short of the production needs of the MYLR alone.
those numbers are a far cry from the expectations set by Elon and Baglino at two successive Quarterly Earnings Call presentations.
Even if you discount all the hype from the blogs, they're far behind the curve and the MY AWD is a smart, but ultimately stopgap, measure to mitigate the shortfalls.
I don't doubt Tesla will get there. But your declaratives are bunk. Tesla is struggling. "Production is hard".
slow down
the discussion is specific to the 4680-based vehicle builds.
no one is saying Tesla doesn't have 'batteries' sufficient to make those that use 2170, 18650, etc.
the expectations built on the 4680 hype is the issue.
Gauss Guzzler
Safety Score = 42
Well your premise is that Tesla has all these factories and production lines setup and fully staffed for CT and Semi production but the workers are just standing there staring at idle lines because the darn 4680's haven't arrived yet.
The reality is that Tesla has several new products in the pipeline (e.g. CT with 4680) and they (again) overpromised the timelines for every one of them. Is the schedule discrepancy due to issues with the CT design? Or 4680 issues? Or factory issues? Or finance issues? Or perhaps everything is going great, but Elon simply created this perception issue by making public announcements that he shouldn't have?
I don't know. Do you? Clearly 4680's are difficult and behind Elon's "schedule", but I don't see any indication that any products are being delayed as a result. Again, tell me where that CT I'd supposedly be driving by now would be built? Austin? They can barely churn out a few Model Y's. They just opened a few weeks ago and you're expecting that "if only they had more 4680's" they'd already be cranking out CT's, Semis, Roadsters, Model 2's, and 4680-based S3XY's at the full rate of 500K/year (or roughly 200 vehicles per minute).
The reality is that Tesla has several new products in the pipeline (e.g. CT with 4680) and they (again) overpromised the timelines for every one of them. Is the schedule discrepancy due to issues with the CT design? Or 4680 issues? Or factory issues? Or finance issues? Or perhaps everything is going great, but Elon simply created this perception issue by making public announcements that he shouldn't have?
I don't know. Do you? Clearly 4680's are difficult and behind Elon's "schedule", but I don't see any indication that any products are being delayed as a result. Again, tell me where that CT I'd supposedly be driving by now would be built? Austin? They can barely churn out a few Model Y's. They just opened a few weeks ago and you're expecting that "if only they had more 4680's" they'd already be cranking out CT's, Semis, Roadsters, Model 2's, and 4680-based S3XY's at the full rate of 500K/year (or roughly 200 vehicles per minute).
you're extrapolating way too much here.
My premise is simple - the 4680 battery production process is behind plan and is gonna be a while to reach potential.
THATS IT.
How you get to me stating that CT and SEMI production staff are standing around twiddling their thumbs?
I'm saying those vehicles would have been much further along in development and/or production if 4680 battery production was closer to plan.
They are examples of evidence that the 4680 is not on plan.
And yes, those vehicles would be in production now, or nearly so, if in fact the 4680 were on plan.
Slow down, you're over-reacting.
I disagree. Musk said in 2022 Tesla was going to focus on ramping Model Y production due to the huge demand and backorder for it, and consequently Tesla decided to NOT introduce any new models for 2022 because doing so would only hamper said Model Y rampup. This is why Austin is starting production with the MY instead of the CT. This why Tesla asked Idra to make more MY gigapress machines before the CT gigapress (which is now being built). This is why the 4680's being made today are going into Austin MY's instead of new CT's.
In short, 2022 is focusing on the MY, and 2023 is focusing on new models like CT & Semi. That was the choice Tesla made, and everything else going on is in support of that choice. Demand for the MY was just so much larger than Tesla expected it to be, it's that simple.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
CT is not held up because of lack of cells, they are still working on how to build it. Similarly the Y is using a different design for the 4680 version, ramping production of the integrated pack will start slowly, regardless of cell supply. I suspect the same is true of the Semi. You're claims that all delays are cell related are what I define as nonsense.
Gauss Guzzler
Safety Score = 42
Elon's tendency to overpromise not withstanding, I'd argue that the Y production focus wasn't even that much of a "choice". They encountered problems beyond their control in both China and Germany which left them with a shortage of Model Y's which both of those factories were supposed to focus on. Meanwhile, widespread car shortages throughout the industry created an increased demand for cars in general while war/inflation/gas prices increased the demand for 3/Y's in particular as they have the lowest total cost of ownership.
Considering all those circumstances it would have been profoundly foolish for Tesla to divert much effort to new product lines instead of focusing all 4 factories on the Y, their highest volume and highest profit vehicle. So yeah, there's no indication that 4680 delays are delaying anything.
I agree with Tangible that 4680 ramp is going slower than expected, I think that is obvious. Where I disagree with Tangible is that the slow 4680 ramp is the singular reason for new model delays. Tesla is executing full speed as fast as they can, but the demand is so strong for their current products that it's making introducing new products difficult. There is only so much Tesla can do with their current resources (factories, employees, supply, etc).
They had a choice:
1) Introduce new products at the expense of expanding current production
OR
2) Ramp up current production and delay new products.
Tesla chose option #2, and I think it was wise because it's going to bolster the company's financials before entering into new product cycles. Tesla will be in super sound financial shape as they roll out the CT, Semi, and Roadster, while also ramping new factories while also building new factories.
They had a choice:
1) Introduce new products at the expense of expanding current production
OR
2) Ramp up current production and delay new products.
Tesla chose option #2, and I think it was wise because it's going to bolster the company's financials before entering into new product cycles. Tesla will be in super sound financial shape as they roll out the CT, Semi, and Roadster, while also ramping new factories while also building new factories.
But the ramp up appears to be going super slowly, which could indicate a 4680 constriction. And frankly that factory is going little to nothing to help with the massive backlog for MY’s at this point and there are no signs that it is going to, as its stuck so far building the middle-range variant... and def there are hints the 4680s are maybe too heavy to make MYLR, at least at or near the current weight.
I see that CATL is going to make cylindrical cells for BMW. Not really 4680 but interesting that it's not a pouch design. To date most have been other form factors (CATL I mean). Interesting.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
They'll get there... pouch seems inherently bad design choice for automotive use. LFP, cylindrical ternary better.
The pouch type seems to meet Fords need in the Lightning
Ford really didn't have much choice with the lightening and as the pouch design was stolen from LG I am sure that Ford is glad that the weakness of the LG manufacturing process has been revealed. Gave them ample time to modify the deign of the cooling and BMS of the pack in general. One sure fire way to help is to charge and discharge lightly, reduces range.
I suspect Ford is desperately looking at alternatives (as are all companies) but have already committed to a huge amount of capacity for these pouch designs.
I suspect Ford is desperately looking at alternatives (as are all companies) but have already committed to a huge amount of capacity for these pouch designs.
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