4680 Model Ys?

[advocate8]

My MYP has a EDD of mar7-31. I’m not one to delay getting the car, but being so close to possibly getting the 4680s would make me want to wait. I wish there was more clarity on what is upcoming. I’m sure Tesla doesn’t want to do this to slow sales while folks wait for the battery switch. I’d just hate to miss out on the 4680s if I could have delayed even a month.

Not sure there is a lot of evidence out there to support 4680s being eminent. There is reasonable evidence Austin will crank up with the new structural battery pack, but it seems likely it will contain the old batteries... This solution has long been discussed as a possible interim measure until 4680 production reaching enough volume to match Y sales.

Hard to say in timing for you. Plenty of time to wait watch and see before you get VIN, then you can make a decision based on better information.
We’re into third week in January now and not serious signs of eminent Y production at Austin... Then it will take a long time, months, for it to ramp up, while most orders are still filed with Fremont builds. Which frankly seem pretty high quality now compared to early days and wouldn’t be something to turn nose up at.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Not sure there is a lot of evidence out there to support 4680s being eminent. There is reasonable evidence Austin will crank up with the new structural battery pack, but it seems likely it will contain the old batteries... This solution has long been discussed as a possible interim measure until 4680 production reaching enough volume to match Y sales.

Hard to say in timing for you. Plenty of time to wait watch and see before you get VIN, then you can make a decision based on better information.
We’re into third week in January now and not serious signs of eminent Y production at Austin... Then it will take a long time, months, for it to ramp up, while most orders are still filed with Fremont builds. Which frankly seem pretty high quality now compared to early days and wouldn’t be something to turn nose up at.

Given the entire concept of the "structural battery pack" relies on using the batteries themselves as a stressed element... I just can't see it working without the physically large and strong 4680 cells.

If they have a 2170 fallback plan for Austin, I would imagine it'd be just making Fremont-style Model Y's - possibly with front and rear mega-castings but with central framing and a non-structural battery pack identical to existing.

 

[hold]

I think

2170- standard range (320 miles)
4680- long range (450 miles)
4680- performance (400 miles)

The’ll announce this during the earnings call.

 

[advocate8]

Given the entire concept of the "structural battery pack" relies on using the batteries themselves as a stressed element... I just can't see it working without the physically large and strong 4680 cells.

If they have a 2170 fallback plan for Austin, I would imagine it'd be just making Fremont-style Model Y's - possibly with front and rear mega-castings but with central framing and a non-structural battery pack identical to existing.

Could be. Just the fact they’ve added the structural pack to the owner’s manual though makes it seem close... like, about the same timing as Austin production. And yet there is a LOT of skepticism the 4680s are being produced at the rate necessary to cover sales.
Also, Im doubtful that by many measures the 4680s are stronger, say in sheer strength for a given amount of storage. They are taller though and that alone -- making the battery pack taller -- makes it significantly stiffer in torsion.

 

[advocate8]

If they announce

I think

2170- standard range (320 miles)
4680- long range (450 miles)
4680- performance (400 miles)

The’ll announce this during the earnings call.

If they announced that, they better be ready to deliver them the following week to those with cars on order. Because otherwise everyone with cars coming in next few months will say no and walk away from their order fees... and cars produced the old way would have to be sold cheap. total disruption. Also... those numbers look high. Max of dreaming in this unlikely direction prob more like 400 MYLR and 350 MYP.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think

2170- standard range (320 miles)
4680- long range (450 miles)
4680- performance (400 miles)

The’ll announce this during the earnings call.

Although they -could- use 4680's to max out range, that's not the primary goal of the project.

The goal is to reduce manufacturing costs. They already have more orders than they can fill. Assume the 4680+structural-pack is 25% more efficient. Tesla can either make cars with similar-to-existing ranges at current price and experience vastly higher profit margin, or they can raise the range to 400+ miles and it costs them the same to make as today so the line gets even longer while they sell everything they can make (which is already true) and see no added profit.

A much more realistic prediction would be a MYLR that comes in at almost exactly today's range, and then later a bragging-rights MYXLR for the few who really need 400+ miles of range (and to polish the brand image of Tesla) but at significantly higher price and lower production volume since putting more cells into individual cars means fewer total cars made - they are limited by the availability of 4680 cells so the last thing they want to do is put tons more of them in each vehicle early on.

The things the end user may see from the 4680 pack is longer expected battery life and lighter weight which might translate into improved handling and acceleration.

 

[Ron J.]

I think

2170- standard range (320 miles)
4680- long range (450 miles)
4680- performance (400 miles)

The’ll announce this during the earnings call.

I think your estimates for MY range with the 4680 structural battery pack are substantially too high. One thing to consider when discussing the often quoted 16% increase in capacity for the new 4680 battery pack, is this number was from back at Tesla Battery Day in Sept. 2020 when the MY battery pack only had 77.8 KWH capacity. The MY's battery pack was already increased to 82.1 KWH in 2021. So if we use the earlier value (which was true at the time of battery day) and believe the 16% increased capacity for the 4680 based structural battery pack was accurate, then the capacity would be 90 KWH. Still a nice increase from the current MY's capacity. As for the weight reduction by using the front and rear megacasts, remember Fremont already began using rear megacasts earlier in 2021 so some of those weight savings are already accounted for in the current MYs. The current EPA 330 mile EV range for the MY LR is based on the current 82 KWH battery pack and the MY's weight with the rear megacast.. I think that having both front and rear megacasts and the increased battery capacity to 90 KWH (if it happens) may add perhaps 50 miles to the current EPA range of the MY.

 

[Wigan]

I think your estimates for MY range with the 4680 structural battery pack are substantially too high. One thing to consider when discussing the often quoted 16% increase in capacity for the new 4680 battery pack, is this number was from back at Tesla Battery Day in Sept. 2020 when the MY battery pack only had 77.8 KWH capacity. The MY's battery pack was already increased to 82.1 KWH in 2021. So if we use the earlier value (which was true at the time of battery day) and believe the 16% increased capacity for the 4680 based structural battery pack was accurate, then the capacity would be 90 KWH. Still a nice increase from the current MY's capacity. As for the weight reduction by using the front and rear megacasts, remember Fremont already began using rear megacasts earlier in 2021 so some of those weight savings are already accounted for in the current MYs. The current EPA 330 mile EV range for the MY LR is based on the current 82 KWH battery pack and the MY's weight with the rear megacast.. I think that having both front and rear megacasts and the increased battery capacity to 90 KWH (if it happens) may add perhaps 50 miles to the current EPA range of the MY.

I agree, I'm pretty sure Elon said he thought about 400 miles was optimum, otherwise you're carrying around too much dead weight all the time. And that frees up more batteries for more cars. If the 4680s are as advertised you can achieve 400 miles with a smaller pack and save even more weight and keep cutting the production cost of the cars. If you sold a Gen 2 MYLR with 410 miles for $59K they probably have TONS of headroom to cut costs when competitors finally get their act together.

 

[DLAv8r]

Not sure there is a lot of evidence out there to support 4680s being eminent. There is reasonable evidence Austin will crank up with the new structural battery pack, but it seems likely it will contain the old batteries... This solution has long been discussed as a possible interim measure until 4680 production reaching enough volume to match Y sales.

Hard to say in timing for you. Plenty of time to wait watch and see before you get VIN, then you can make a decision based on better information.
We’re into third week in January now and not serious signs of eminent Y production at Austin... Then it will take a long time, months, for it to ramp up, while most orders are still filed with Fremont builds. Which frankly seem pretty high quality now compared to early days and wouldn’t be something to turn nose up at.

Very true.. I have time to wait and see and possibly put on hold. Elon said Ys from Texas will roll out with 4680s. Latest drone footage from the 14th support this. Fremont is producing a good car. I don’t have an issue with that. If I’m so close to 4680s vs the 2170s it would only make sense to wait.

 

[Lccjblu]

Very true.. I have time to wait and see and possibly put on hold. Elon said Ys from Texas will roll out with 4680s. Latest drone footage from the 14th support this. Fremont is producing a good car. I don’t have an issue with that. If I’m so close to 4680s vs the 2170s it would only make sense to wait.

Has there been any mention of just the performance models getting 4680s (at least for now?). I read that somewhere but not sure if it was speculation.

 

[solodogg]

Has there been any mention of just the performance models getting 4680s (at least for now?). I read that somewhere but not sure if it was speculation.

Everything is speculation at this point in time, and bad speculation for the most part. Tesla does some wacky changes, but when they make that big of a change it’s not just going to be a single factory serving only half of the country and not go unannounced prior to production. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I think we are at least 6 months out from 4680’s in the US.

 

[kithytom]

Although they -could- use 4680's to max out range, that's not the primary goal of the project.

The goal is to reduce manufacturing costs. They already have more orders than they can fill. Assume the 4680+structural-pack is 25% more efficient. Tesla can either make cars with similar-to-existing ranges at current price and experience vastly higher profit margin, or they can raise the range to 400+ miles and it costs them the same to make as today so the line gets even longer while they sell everything they can make (which is already true) and see no added profit.

A much more realistic prediction would be a MYLR that comes in at almost exactly today's range, and then later a bragging-rights MYXLR for the few who really need 400+ miles of range (and to polish the brand image of Tesla) but at significantly higher price and lower production volume since putting more cells into individual cars means fewer total cars made - they are limited by the availability of 4680 cells so the last thing they want to do is put tons more of them in each vehicle early on.

The things the end user may see from the 4680 pack is longer expected battery life and lighter weight which might translate into improved handling and acceleration.

Right on most with one more speculation
tweak: range will increase < 20 miles because new cells mean new tuning possibilities.

 

[Mailbox]

Hello! First time poster but thought this topic might be suitable to ask, although I am from EU and most discussion is from US.

Looking to buy my first MYLR in Finland, loved the test ride. I am in no super rush for the car, so happy to wait if it is worth it and I guess that is the million dollar question.

My understanding is soon when Berlin Giga is operational, MYLR in Europe will come from Giga Berlin? Are MYLR going to start with the 4680 battery? I'm struggling to find news in English and can only find much for Texas.

Current website says delivery February 2022 but the Sales Advisor suggested 3 months.

Just trying to understand when I should put the order in, now or wait a bit? I'm not bothered if the range etc. remain the same with the new batteries buy my thinking is that I want to own this car for the next 5-6 years so it makes sense to have the car 'future proof' in the event of repairs being required. Or am I just overthinking things?

Any collective advice for Europe is much appreciated, Happy weekend and hope my English is clear

 

[DrGriz]

Hello! First time poster but thought this topic might be suitable to ask, although I am from EU and most discussion is from US.

Looking to buy my first MYLR in Finland, loved the test ride. I am in no super rush for the car, so happy to wait if it is worth it and I guess that is the million dollar question.

My understanding is soon when Berlin Giga is operational, MYLR in Europe will come from Giga Berlin? Are MYLR going to start with the 4680 battery? I'm struggling to find news in English and can only find much for Texas.

Current website says delivery February 2022 but the Sales Advisor suggested 3 months.

Just trying to understand when I should put the order in, now or wait a bit? I'm not bothered if the range etc. remain the same with the new batteries buy my thinking is that I want to own this car for the next 5-6 years so it makes sense to have the car 'future proof' in the event of repairs being required. Or am I just overthinking things?

Any collective advice for Europe is much appreciated, Happy weekend and hope my English is clear

From what I have read, mass production of 4680s at Berlin Giga won't begin until late '22.

Tesla Giga Berlin Displays Structural Battery Pack, Mass Production of 4680 Cells in Germany by End of 2022

Tesla first showed the new structural battery pack during the launch party at Giga Berlin. Mass production of 4680 cells will begin there in late 2022, according to Elon Musk.

www.tesmanian.com

So it is unlikely that the initial MYs will have them. I have read that there have been some problems with manufacturing 4680s and there may be some hiccups with the technology as it gets rolled out.

 

[Mailbox]

From what I have read, mass production of 4680s at Berlin Giga won't begin until late '22.

Tesla Giga Berlin Displays Structural Battery Pack, Mass Production of 4680 Cells in Germany by End of 2022

Tesla first showed the new structural battery pack during the launch party at Giga Berlin. Mass production of 4680 cells will begin there in late 2022, according to Elon Musk.

www.tesmanian.com

So it is unlikely that the initial MYs will have them. I have read that there have been some problems with manufacturing 4680s and there may be some hiccups with the technology as it gets rolled out.

Thanks! Yes I've seen a lot of similar articles some say Q1 some say late 2022. Honestly, think I will just wait until Feb 1st and put an order in just in case there's anything announced in the late January call. I'm not in a super rush, but neither am I willing to wait for a year, but naturally if the hive mind thought it would be Q2 (or something close) I would wait a month or two to try and align with something a bit more future proof.

Thanks again! (Not sure how to like your post!)

 

[Terminator857]

From what I have read, mass production of 4680s at Berlin Giga won't begin until late '22.
...

Yes, it takes a year to reach mass production from initial production. For Berlin: that doesn't mean initial production doesn't start in March, and doesn't mean initial Model Y's which will also be low volume, won't have them.

Tesla 4680 Battery Cells To Debut In Production In Early 2022

Could it debut in the Model Y that will be built in Austin and Berlin as part of the structural battery pack?

insideevs.com

For non Berlin: there is a report that initial Model Y's 4680 cells with come from Kato road. We can expect an update from Tesla at quarterly update in 10 days: Wednesday, January 26, 2022

 

[Wigan]

Yes, it takes a year to reach mass production from initial production. That doesn't mean initial production doesn't start soon, and doesn't mean initial Model Y's which will also be low volume, won't have them.

Tesla 4680 Battery Cells To Debut In Production In Early 2022

Could it debut in the Model Y that will be built in Austin and Berlin as part of the structural battery pack?

insideevs.com

There is a report that initial Model Y's 4680 cells with come from Kato road. So in the non Berlin case, expect them soonish. We can expect an update from Tesla at quarterly update in 10 days.

I've also read that the first 4680s won't be the perfected 4680s. That at first they won't have the 'full' amount of silicon and gradually over time as they perfect the chemistry they'll gradually evolve them to the final version. Who knows?

Such a dynamic time for Tesla, the earnings call will be fun.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I've also read that the first 4680s won't be the perfected 4680s. That at first they won't have the 'full' amount of silicon and gradually over time as they perfect the chemistry they'll gradually evolve them to the final version. Who knows?

Such a dynamic time for Tesla, the earnings call will be fun.

Tesla is known for adjusting the chemistry constantly - they got a nice bump in the range from 2170's in 2021

 

[B_E_V]

Just trying to understand when I should put the order in, now or wait a bit? I'm not bothered if the range etc. remain the same with the new batteries buy my thinking is that I want to own this car for the next 5-6 years so it makes sense to have the car 'future proof' in the event of repairs being required. Or am I just overthinking things?

Any collective advice for Europe is much appreciated, Happy weekend and hope my English is clear

If you bought a Model Y today shipped to Europe from China you would be getting the highest build quality Model Y currently available. The battery pack might actually be more repairable than the upcoming "structural" battery pack. Though reliable details about the new structural pack are sparse.

Once Berlin has completed its production ramp, and has eliminated the inevitable issues that crop up with any start up, Berlin's build quality should be similar or better than China's current quality. During the ramp, Berlin's build quality is unlikely to equal China's current build quality.

Going with the current pack means going with the tried and true well tested approach which Tesla understands very well. Going with the 4680's should give some benefits, besides improving Tesla's profit margin. Personally I am hoping for improved charging speed, slower degradation, a stiffer car that feels slightly better, and slightly higher overall efficiency (fewer watt hours/kilometer). However, going with the cutting edge product can mean downsides are encountered as well.

Basically there are advantages to waiting, especially if you can wait until 2023 once Berlin is fully ramped. However, the safest choice in terms of fewer unknown unknowns is to grab a car built in China if you are buying in Europe in the near future. While this thread is mainly occupied by individuals hoping for 4680 cells, there are individuals who after the various LG battery car fires will not consider buying a car with a "new untested" battery. I personally am hoping for a 4680 car, but I understand that it is a slightly more risky choice.

 

[Brolan]

Exactly why I was happy to take my MYLR with the 2170s back in November. If the 4680 were coming out at that time I would have canceled my order to wait until they had been in cars for 12-24 months. To ensure they were solid and safe.