4680 Model Ys?

[Mailbox]

If you bought a Model Y today shipped to Europe from China you would be getting the highest build quality Model Y currently available. The battery pack might actually be more repairable than the upcoming "structural" battery pack. Though reliable details about the new structural pack are sparse.

Once Berlin has completed its production ramp, and has eliminated the inevitable issues that crop up with any start up, Berlin's build quality should be similar or better than China's current quality. During the ramp, Berlin's build quality is unlikely to equal China's current build quality.

Going with the current pack means going with the tried and true well tested approach which Tesla understands very well. Going with the 4680's should give some benefits, besides improving Tesla's profit margin. Personally I am hoping for improved charging speed, slower degradation, a stiffer car that feels slightly better, and slightly higher overall efficiency (fewer watt hours/kilometer). However, going with the cutting edge product can mean downsides are encountered as well.

Basically there are advantages to waiting, especially if you can wait until 2023 once Berlin is fully ramped. However, the safest choice in terms of fewer unknown unknowns is to grab a car built in China if you are buying in Europe in the near future. While this thread is mainly occupied by individuals hoping for 4680 cells, there are individuals who after the various LG battery car fires will not consider buying a car with a "new untested" battery. I personally am hoping for a 4680 car, but I understand that it is a slightly more risky choice.

Thanks for this!
Yes, our thought was that if the battery changes in 2022 then in 2026 should we need a new battery or repair, the old one could be hard to source if it is discontinued. This is our first EV, and truthfully we have only started looking into getting an EV since November/December so our knowledge is incredibly limited. Done my best to research but there's so much (what appears to me) conflicting information I thought to ask.

I have no worry to try out a new technology battery, my thought process is entirely from the angle that we would be looking to own the car for the foreseeable future. I'm not willing to wait until 2023, so I guess I'll just put an order through next month and I understand I can delay the order for a few months should something very attractive come along. I know there's always going to be something on the horizon, but battery is probably the only thing I would consider delaying for. I'm very happy with everything on the current car, I wouldn't be buying if not

 

[Wigan]

If you bought a Model Y today shipped to Europe from China you would be getting the highest build quality Model Y currently available. The battery pack might actually be more repairable than the upcoming "structural" battery pack. Though reliable details about the new structural pack are sparse.

Once Berlin has completed its production ramp, and has eliminated the inevitable issues that crop up with any start up, Berlin's build quality should be similar or better than China's current quality. During the ramp, Berlin's build quality is unlikely to equal China's current build quality.

Going with the current pack means going with the tried and true well tested approach which Tesla understands very well. Going with the 4680's should give some benefits, besides improving Tesla's profit margin. Personally I am hoping for improved charging speed, slower degradation, a stiffer car that feels slightly better, and slightly higher overall efficiency (fewer watt hours/kilometer). However, going with the cutting edge product can mean downsides are encountered as well.

Basically there are advantages to waiting, especially if you can wait until 2023 once Berlin is fully ramped. However, the safest choice in terms of fewer unknown unknowns is to grab a car built in China if you are buying in Europe in the near future. While this thread is mainly occupied by individuals hoping for 4680 cells, there are individuals who after the various LG battery car fires will not consider buying a car with a "new untested" battery. I personally am hoping for a 4680 car, but I understand that it is a slightly more risky choice.

I'm going to do both. I'll take delivery this coming Saturday, drive it around 18 months or whatever it takes, and then trade in for a car with the perfected 4680s, battery pack, mega castings, maybe air suspension, etc. And maybe FSD by then, who knows?

 

[DrGriz]

I'm going to do both. I'll take delivery this coming Saturday, drive it around 18 months or whatever it takes, and then trade in for a car with the perfected 4680s, battery pack, mega castings, maybe air suspension, etc. And maybe FSD by then, who knows?

This.

 

[Wigan]

This.

The thing is, a year from now you'll have a great future-proofed car. New MCU, million mile battery with more range and faster charging times, sound deadening glass, new battery, maybe air suspension, maybe FSD 4 or something, and who knows what else more minor improvements?

Take care of the physical car and Tesla will keep updating the software and the body never changes anyhow. PPF it up, get good floor mats, ceramic coat the seats every six months or so, and maybe you can drive that car essentially forever.

 

[kithytom]

Here we go, found a giant 4680 from Shanghai factory

 

[Shocker]

Read on another forum, Tesla using LFP chemistry since mid January in Y.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Read on another forum, Tesla using LFP chemistry since mid January in Y.

I believe that LFP is only used on Standard Range model 3's and Y's coming from the China factory. No LFP happening in USA right now.

 

[kithytom]

unverified source from Austin

 

[Fairchild]

Elon just announced on the earnings call that Model Ys coming out of Giga Austin will be 4680.

 

[hold]

Elon just announced on the earnings call that Model Ys coming out of Giga Austin will be 4680.

and deliveries expected by end of Q1

 

[Fairchild]

and deliveries expected by end of Q1

Yay for my Mar 21 MYP East Coast delivery

 

[pusheen]

Living in Seattle is the reason I took delivery this month - I was never gonna get 4680 anyways, not until Fremont was retooled. And who knows when that will be!

 

[907XCP]

Living in Seattle is the reason I took delivery this month - I was never gonna get 4680 anyways, not until Fremont was retooled. And who knows when that will be!

Cries in Alaskan

 

[andhra_alludu]

Just clicked I'm ready!
I got a TBD. When can I expect to see a delivery window so that I can start prepping up for my delivery.

If I live in Austin will I get a 4680 MY?

 

[Fairchild]

Just clicked I'm ready!
I got a TBD. When can I expect to see a delivery window so that I can start prepping up for my delivery.

If I live in Austin will I get a 4680 MY?

That's what Elon said. Although Austin may begin with the Performance Models. Go for it!

 

[Brolan]

Yeah, this is going to be strange if Austin is using the 4680 and Fremont is still using the 2170. How will they distribute the cars? Some get lucky and others get the shaft? Will they charge a price premium for the 4680 and give you a chance to alter your order? Or will they make the cars be equivalent in range? So many questions.

 

[pusheen]

Cries in Alaskan

Yeah, this is going to be strange if Austin is using the 4680 and Fremont is still using the 2170. How will they distribute the cars? Some get lucky and others get the shaft? Will they charge a price premium for the 4680 and give you a chance to alter your order? Or will they make the cars be equivalent in range? So many questions.

I've been saying this for a while now but I'll say it again - I think the most likely guess is that we won't see a lot of changes for consumers out of 4680, but we will see a lot of changes for manufacturing and for shareholders. I think given the sales numbers, Tesla is most likely going to focus on production volume rather than increasing range. That means using fewer 4680 cells to reach the same equivalent range as the current 2170 cells. That's part of why I've been baffled about so many people putting so much stock in getting a 4680 car versus a 2170 car - there is absolutely no guarantee that all of this effort is actually going to end up being worth anything at the end, besides very minor improvements to performance and perhaps charging speed. Like, someone please explain to me where everyone is getting the impression the Tesla was going to focus on big jumps in range out the gate versus reaching feature parity with the 2170 Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin cells. It makes no sense for them to be producing a different model Y for different regions. It's a recipe for disaster, especially for their order prioritization algorithm.

 

[PatentNRG]

I've been saying this for a while now but I'll say it again - I think the most likely guess is that we won't see a lot of changes for consumers out of 4680, but we will see a lot of changes for manufacturing and for shareholders. I think given the sales numbers, Tesla is most likely going to focus on production volume rather than increasing range. That means using fewer 4680 cells to reach the same equivalent range as the current 2170 cells. That's part of why I've been baffled about so many people putting so much stock in getting a 4680 car versus a 2170 car - there is absolutely no guarantee that all of this effort is actually going to end up being worth anything at the end, besides very minor improvements to performance and perhaps charging speed. Like, someone please explain to me where everyone is getting the impression the Tesla was going to focus on big jumps in range out the gate versus reaching feature parity with the 2170 Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin cells. It makes no sense for them to be producing a different model Y for different regions. It's a recipe for disaster, especially for their order prioritization algorithm.

I agree that this is most likely the approach they will take. Lots of people are willing to pay more $ to alleviate their range anxiety, so it would be easy for Tesla to charge more for a longer range vehicle. But, who knows? Maybe we will all get gifted longer range vehicles. Lol!

 

[Fairchild]

I've been saying this for a while now but I'll say it again - I think the most likely guess is that we won't see a lot of changes for consumers out of 4680, but we will see a lot of changes for manufacturing and for shareholders. I think given the sales numbers, Tesla is most likely going to focus on production volume rather than increasing range. That means using fewer 4680 cells to reach the same equivalent range as the current 2170 cells. That's part of why I've been baffled about so many people putting so much stock in getting a 4680 car versus a 2170 car - there is absolutely no guarantee that all of this effort is actually going to end up being worth anything at the end, besides very minor improvements to performance and perhaps charging speed. Like, someone please explain to me where everyone is getting the impression the Tesla was going to focus on big jumps in range out the gate versus reaching feature parity with the 2170 Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin cells. It makes no sense for them to be producing a different model Y for different regions. It's a recipe for disaster, especially for their order prioritization algorithm.

That's why the easiest solution would be to start delivering MYPs with the 4680s out of Giga Austin and Fremont until 4680 production can catch up to provide enough batteries to support the complete MY fleet. It would certainly reduce the amount of discord. If you want 4680s, you pay the premium for the MYP. This would also shift the demand to the MYP and off of the MY (also reducing discord), increasing revenue and providing a testbed for the 4680s. MYs could continue to be delayed until August (as the configurator says) until there are enough 4680 batteries to support both Fremont and Austin MY production. It just makes too much sense and it is consistent with Tesla's model of introducing new features on premium vehicles first.

 

[TuS3XY]

Just clicked I'm ready!
I got a TBD. When can I expect to see a delivery window so that I can start prepping up for my delivery.

If I live in Austin will I get a 4680 MY?

You should get a VIN this morning, after clicked I’m ready last night I received a VIN this morning. Delivery to Michigan.