Just checked status, It says EDD Feb 8 - Mar 8
We will reach out to schedule your delivery when your VIN is assigned.
Fingers crossed! Anytime from now.. I am excited
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4680 Model Ys?
- Thread starter Smitty79
- Start date
We will reach out to schedule your delivery when your VIN is assigned.
Fingers crossed! Anytime from now.. I am excited
I agree with you that the MY 4680 and MY 2170 vehicles are likely to be extremely similar initially. Especially when it comes to range.
However, I do think there is a good chance the MY 4680 will weigh a little less, which should improve payload and efficiency a little bit. Eventually, an over the air update is likely to allow a faster charging profile for the MY 4680 cars. We might also see longer lasting 4680 packs than 2170 packs, getting closer to the dream "Million Mile Pack." Building using front and rear castings with a structural middle in a brand new factory may also permit tighter build tolerances in the fit and finish sense than we have seen from Tesla before.
On the other hand, the 4680 cells are probably slightly more likely to catch fire than the 2170s on a per cell basis. Though I don't know which will be more stable on a per kilowatt/hour basis. Brand new bigger batteries are likely to have a higher defect rate than 2170 cells produced on a well established line, but again on a per kilowatt/hour basis I don't know. Tesla has also been very quiet about repairing/replacing a STRUCTURAL battery pack.
While I tend to think China's reputation for better fit and finish is in large part because that factory is new and was designed specifically to build the cars it is currently building, the workforce may be more relevant than I'm assuming. Perhaps Austin will not actually match or surpass the China factory's quality soon as I have been hoping.
Bottom line, it is a bit of a gamble whether you are better off getting one of the first 4680 cars, or one of the last 2170 cars. Personally, most of the time I'm hoping to get a 4680, but I recognize that it is a gamble.
According to Elon during the Q4 2021 call, they are CHIP constrained in 2022, but not CELL constrained, and not 4680 constrained. Of course the reason they don't feel 4680 constrained may be because they are not immediately switching all MY car production to 4680 cells. On the other hand, they also need to use their 2170 supply somewhere.
Personally, I think that MOST new to Tesla customers who order a MY either don't care, or don't even know, that their car may have 2170's or 4680s. It is only the well informed fringe buyer, such as myself and other forum readers, who sometimes cares about such internals. Tesla probably wants to keep it that way.
Thus I think Tesla is looking at the logistic COSTS of shipping cars, and shipping cells, and telling themselves it doesn't make economic sense to boost their shipping costs. Given their current delivery times, they we won't lose many orders by not rushing the cut over to 4680s everywhere at once. So rushing would just guarantee incurring additional costs, but would not guarantee generating additional profit.
I also suspect that Tesla is intentionally using the Austin factory where Elon has his eyes on things to iron out the structural battery pack production ramp bumps in Austin, then planning to share the knowledge with the other factories. Instead of having all the factories trip over the same issues.
If they are cautious, they also want to see what happens when they have 10's and 100's of thousands of cars in customer hands. Sure they have done in-house testing, but ultimately you never know how good a product you have until lots of customers use and abuse it. They saw what happened with the Chevy Bolt, and don't want to risk anything remotely like that happening to ALL their 2022 MY production.
My personal theory.
They are going to switch all Model Y production over. There will be no half-and-half time where some people get the old version and some get the new one. No secret 4680 SKU or model to order. My suspicion is Tesla is going to start production at Austin and shut down Fremont for a week to convert over. Then they will switch over Fremont and all new Model Ys are 4680.
This is roughly how Tesla has done most of their upgrades. The big difference being they have a second facility they can keep online while they transition the first. Sometime in the next few weeks, all Model Ys will be 4680.
Everyone has been laser focused on Texas… nobody bothered to ask what Fremont will be doing during that same time.
They are going to switch all Model Y production over. There will be no half-and-half time where some people get the old version and some get the new one. No secret 4680 SKU or model to order. My suspicion is Tesla is going to start production at Austin and shut down Fremont for a week to convert over. Then they will switch over Fremont and all new Model Ys are 4680.
This is roughly how Tesla has done most of their upgrades. The big difference being they have a second facility they can keep online while they transition the first. Sometime in the next few weeks, all Model Ys will be 4680.
Everyone has been laser focused on Texas… nobody bothered to ask what Fremont will be doing during that same time.
With greater capacity, I wonder if they will implement a smaller battery to keep range the same as to not compete with the Model S? I can’t see them wanting to push a 350+ mile range Model Y quite yet.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
FYI - they just went thru a half-and-half time with the much simpler changeover from Intel to AMD on the cpu with a mix of both going out and no customer certainty for which they'd get. But you think they'll magically ship the first unit from Texas with 4680 pack and structural pack plus new front casting while making the exact same changes at Fremont which is churning out Y's as fast as it can go?
Yes. And that's why it just makes sense to start with the 4680s in the premium MYP and it fits with the time frames established on the configuration page. MYP - March. MY - August.
They are making some 4680s at Giga Austin now, but nowhere near the number they need to handle the demand for all MYs.
By August, the dedicated 4680 facilities should be complete at Giga Austin and Shanghai and all can release MYs with 4680s in August at the same time.
I wonder why there are standard Model 3s in blue sitting outside Giga Austin. Perhaps those are for testing purposes.
And did you see the cars that are covered?
Perhaps they are MYPs or new paint colors.
Your thoughts?
This sure looks like a MYP outside of Giga Texas with its "Dual Motor" and performance wheels.
Attachments
How long do people think the final approval will take to deliver structural pack Model Ys? Elon announced on the earnings call it would be soon.
But... ALL MY’s out of Austin will be 4680. They are not battery-supply-constrained. The batteries don’t have to only come from Austin right now.
They have enough for their ramp up. And they need to clear their huge backlog of MYLR. There is almost no wait for MYP.
For a brief point in the first few weeks Austin would be hitting their demand for no-wait orders of MYP but then rapidly exceed it.... then what would they do?
It’s unclear how they’re going to do this but building MYP as only car produced at Austin ain’t it, obviously.
And making two kinds of battery packs for Austin ain’t either.
The theory about shutting down Fremont for a a week or so to retool, and doing all Ys from both places in 4680 seems most likely scenario, then bigger question becomes when. March? June? It would be based on ramp up at Austin.
Speaking Anecdotally, with no real proof AT ALL, you see a lot of people still taking delivery of MYs, but not many are getting their MYPs. Also, I feel like my delivery date keeps on moving based on the status of Giga Texas. (Again, I have a biased, hopeful, unrealistic, and impatient outlook for sure!)
I have an MYP (red, with hitch) on order, and the delivery date has been all over the place and seems to line up with everything said here. First, the delivery date was December 2021 when Elon was still hopeful that Austin was going to open by the end of the year, then as 2022 neared, it moved to Jan-Feb 2022, now it's Feb/Mar. I've also seen threads with others who ordered an MYP with similar delivery dates.
It really wouldn't make sense to have 2 different MYs produced at the same time. It's a good way to upset a lot of people. By focusing on MYPs first, they can alleviate that and give them more time to pump out some cars while either prepping Fremont for 4680 productions or stockpile more supply for the MYs.
I think that's why they may be starting with MYPs. They produce MYPs because they have an earlier EDD, and a less number to deliver. There are far too many MYLR to produce so starting with Austin doesn't make sense. Creating two different MYs simultaneously doesn't make sense either.
Producing MYP at Austin primarily, and producing MYLR once Fremont is updated makes a lot of sense and works with the comments that there are MANY people out there with a June/July delivery date.
I have a MYLR on order from 11/14, I live in Austin and my most recent EDD is 02/06-02-16, it’s the closest one I’ve seen with the shortest window. I don’t know if the fact that I’m in austin is affecting that time frame or if they may be stockpiling. Anyway it’s been a wild ride
There goes my theory!!!
It's funny. Each person's narrative and viewpoint are heavily determined by each person's situation! Everyone has a biased perspective, and (at this point), everyone is equally likely to be right because none of us have any real clue!
But... If they did only MYP in Austin they would not be producing nearly enough in first few weeks, then suddenly would be making far too many. They would only be making the right amount for literally, an instant.
....They would zoom past the fully-meeting-demand point. Then what? They’re in the same pickle, and pretty quickly in their ramp up cycle, so little is solved by that.
And from the standpoint of Austin supposedly being aimed at Eastern 2/3 of US that doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Meanwhile there is no crossover point in the Austin ramp up like that for MYLR need, back order list is too long for that.
Picking a point early in Austin production as they begin shipping and changing over Fremont so both ship same product at same time makes the most sense in some ways, but may not be feasible from standpoint of how long Fremont has to idle... dunno, but none of the obvious options here are perfect.
The notion of shipping both kinds for awhile and putting an unlockable range limiter on the 4680s out of Austin, for example, seems just wrongheaded, but Tesla has done stranger things. And it’s clearly going to have to pick one poison or the other.
I don’t think they will magically do anything. They are going to bust their ass to get it done.
They need to convert Fremont over to 4680 one way or the other. If they have the supply of new cells… something they hinted at in the earnings call. Then it just makes sense. They are making the battery packs in Fremont already.
All that was stated with Giga Texas would be 4680 and structural battery pack. No one bothered to ask about Fremont and the plan there.
There is a reason for all the front mega casts at Fremont, clearly there is a plan for them to transition. We just don't know when. But I doubt it will be a large gap.
There is a reason for all the front mega casts at Fremont, clearly there is a plan for them to transition. We just don't know when. But I doubt it will be a large gap.
I doubt they are going to risk disruption of production at Fremont until they have Giga Texas up and running well. They have gone through production hell a few times now and it’s much safer to use the existing process until they have worked out all the bugs in Texas.
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