4680 Model Ys?

[advocate8]

How do you know if anyone would be able to tell the difference? We do not have the specs of the new 4680 MY. What if tesla does a MY Maxx, with 400+ miles range with 350KW max charging. Or they could keep all MY's basically the same range whether they have 4680's or 2170's but we dont have a clue what Tesla is going to do. I think it would be smart for them to sell a MY maxx model and produce it exclusively at Austin, charge 10-15k more per car and probably cost them less than current LR MY's do. I would pay 10k more for an extra 100 miles range. Then when they get freemont changed over to 4680's they can produce them at both factories.

They have more than half a year of production backlog. They’re not going to waste time developing and marketing some fantasy edition that won’t help them reduce that. Every car they can make in a hurry right now is money in the pocket, and prevents people from cancelling orders or not ordering in the the first place and buying something else.
People keep making the mistake of absorbing all the hype and assuming these are batteries to make Super Cars. They’re aimed at super manufacturing and profitability first.
Maybe new super versions later. Not now.
The only cars seen literally at Austin so far, well over 100, all appear to be longlLange with cheapest wheels. Not a sign anywhere that would suggest a Super Y.

 

[Terminator857]

They have more than half a year of production backlog. They’re not going to waste time developing and marketing some fantasy edition that won’t help them reduce that. Every car they can make in a hurry right now is money in the pocket, and prevents people from cancelling orders or not ordering in the the first place and buying something else. ...

Times change quickly, especially with Giga Texas promising to more than double Model-Y production. How long do you think the long back log is going to last? I think things will be very different this time next year with more than 5K cars produced at Giga Texas per week. Will do much to satisfy pent up demand.

 

[advocate8]

Times change quickly, especially with Giga Texas promising to more than double Model-Y production. How long do you think the long back log is going to last? I think things will be very different this time next year with more than 5K cars produced at Giga Texas per week. Will do much to satisfy pent up demand.

Yeah, this time next year, totally agree... it will take months and months though... next fall to get serious numbers rolling out of there.

 

[advocate8]

Yeah, this time next year, totally agree... it will take months and months though... next fall to get serious numbers rolling out of there.

I’ll add that place looks SOOOO set up to crank numbers when it gets going. It will be hard to beat Shanghai, which seems just stellar... but there is plenty of room there to expand, they had lots of experience to set up the work flow like they wanted it.... We just have to hope that labor isn’t a serious bottleneck there. On one hand, you’d think Tesla jobs would be in huge demand, but affordable housing has been getting increasingly scare and of course this semi-mysterious labor shortage continues all over the place.
Hyundai distributor told me he can get decent flow of cars off ships. But he’s got like, half the people he needs in the distribution center and truck drivers are way scarce.

 

[Ogre]

They have more than half a year of production backlog. They’re not going to waste time developing and marketing some fantasy edition that won’t help them reduce that. Every car they can make in a hurry right now is money in the pocket, and prevents people from cancelling orders or not ordering in the the first place and buying something else.
People keep making the mistake of absorbing all the hype and assuming these are batteries to make Super Cars. They’re aimed at super manufacturing and profitability first.
Maybe new super versions later. Not now.
The only cars seen literally at Austin so far, well over 100, all appear to be longlLange with cheapest wheels. Not a sign anywhere that would suggest a Super Y.

Agree with you save 1 little bit.

Tesla‘s goal is to make them easier to manufacture, cheaper, and better than the 2170 based cars.

That doesn’t necessarily mean they will build a super fantasy edition. Its just iterating on the theme, still the MY LR and MYP, just a bit faster to charge; and slightly spunkier versions of each. Each version just a little better than the last.

 

[advocate8]

Agree with you save 1 little bit.

Tesla‘s goal is to make them easier to manufacture, cheaper, and better than the 2170 based cars.

That doesn’t necessarily mean they will build a super fantasy edition. Its just iterating on the theme, still the MY LR and MYP, just a bit faster to charge; and slightly spunkier versions of each. Each version just a little better than the last.

Yeah, def agree.
Unless the 4680 turns out to be a lemon, I don’t see how they can avoid the car getting better. It should be stiffer and lighter, and even if only by 80-150 lbs (hedging down from standard Tesla hype levels) that will make for a better car. They could probably even slightly REDUCE the amount of electricity storage from current level tiniest bit and still come out with same range or slightly better due to weight savings, though weight isn’t the main driver of range. Every little bit of weight cut though is good stuff -- weight is, for me, the main performance drawback for EVs now that range has been brought to reasonable levels..

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, def agree.
Unless the 4680 turns out to be a lemon, I don’t see how they can avoid the car getting better. It should be stiffer and lighter, and even if only by 80-150 lbs (hedging down from standard Tesla hype levels) that will make for a better car. They could probably even slightly REDUCE the amount of electricity storage from current level tiniest bit and still come out with same range or slightly better due to weight savings, though weight isn’t the main driver of range. Every little bit of weight cut though is good stuff -- weight is, for me, the main performance drawback for EVs now that range has been brought to reasonable levels..

Sure.

I do think between the front casting and the structural battery we’ll see something closer to 300 pounds of weight savings. We’re rolling multiple improvements at the same time. But your more conservative numbers might end up true as well.

Regardless, we’ll see soon enough.

 

[jackmott]

Is the curb weight and 0-60 times really that proportional? Are you telling me if I carry a few generously sized passengers the car will be that much slower?

If powered remained constant yes, however, there is evidence some Tesla's limit acceleration via software so maybe not.

 

[KJD]

Sure.

I do think between the front casting and the structural battery we’ll see something closer to 300 pounds of weight savings. We’re rolling multiple improvements at the same time. But your more conservative numbers might end up true as well.

Regardless, we’ll see soon enough.

That word soon, seems to mean a lot of different things.

Back in February I was inclined to agree with you. Now not so sure.

 

[jackmott]

Sure.

I do think between the front casting and the structural battery we’ll see something closer to 300 pounds of weight savings. We’re rolling multiple improvements at the same time. But your more conservative numbers might end up true as well.

Regardless, we’ll see soon enough.

If we use history of cars as a guide, somehow the new model Y will not end up any lighter at all. Any mass budget saved will be eaten away by cost savings or making things more reliable or quieter.

Hear me now believe me later? Hope I'm wrong. EPA filing curb weight for the new Standard Range would imply I am right if it is real.

 

[Ogre]

If we use history of cars as a guide, somehow the new model Y will not end up any lighter at all. Any mass budget saved will be eaten away by cost savings or making things more reliable or quieter.

Hear me now believe me later? Hope I'm wrong. EPA filing curb weight for the new Standard Range would imply I am right if it is real.

From the sound of it the first gen 4680 in the SR they are shipping to employees is still WIP.

You are right about one thing though for certain. The big deal on the 4680 is cost savings the moment.

Curious to see if any off these end up shipping to non employees

 

[ZenRockGarden]

From the sound of it the first gen 4680 in the SR they are shipping to employees is still WIP.

You are right about one thing though for certain. The big deal on the 4680 is cost savings the moment.

Curious to see if any off these end up shipping to non employees

Yeah, I figure in the next month or two we'll see the MYAWD go live on the website with Q3 or Q4 delivery time estimate...

Probably depends on how well things are going with the early units in employee hands.

If I were Tesla, I'd line up MYAWD public availability with a few key differentiators to the MYLR and MYP.... but I'm not them, and they seem to do things when it's convenient more than when would be optimal from a product standpoint.

 

[SilverSp33d3r]

From the sound of it the first gen 4680 in the SR they are shipping to employees is still WIP.

You are right about one thing though for certain. The big deal on the 4680 is cost savings the moment.

Curious to see if any off these end up shipping to non employees

I’d be a Guinea pig if they offered free FSD

 

[Fairchild]

I’d be a Guinea pig if they offered free FSD

BEAN COUNTER ALERT! The only thing FREE from TESLA is the FREEDOM to wait for your car or in the case of FSD, the freedom to pay now for a long-delayed promise, sometime, somewhere. And BTW, from data gathering, to production delays, long waits, quality issues, et al,
Hey, YOU cannot have the exclusive right to Guinea Pig. For, we are ALL already Guinea Pigs.

 

[Brolan]

The only way you are getting free FSD is if Santa Claus brings it for Christmas.

 

[tangible1]

The only way you are getting free FSD is if Santa Claus brings it for Christmas.

Actually, based on how well it works, it should be free. Or perhaps it's worth a pro-rated fee.
Only when FSD fulfills it's potential can current charges be justified.
Unfortunately software pricing strategies long ago priced products based on potential rather than performance.