4Q18 Model 3 Production

[ValueAnalyst]

3Q17: 220
4Q17: 2,425
1Q18: 9,766
2Q18: 28,578
3Q18: 52,500 (est)
4Q18: ??,???

Please feel free to share your reasoning in a comment below.

 

[Mo City]

I think they should work out enough kinks to average ~5K/week for Q4. Maybe more.

 

[humbaba]

With only ~10 production weeks in Q4 my 5.5k per week seems low by the options given, but regardless of what the factory can potentially turn out, the numbers always seem to be well below those limits -- otherwise would be looking at something like 8k per week with 80,000 estimated.

 

[trentbridge]

Since the new Grohmann equipment is coming early Q4 in the Gigafactory:

Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly.

So 5,500 x 12 weeks (lose a week for Holidays in December..) = 66,000.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

With only ~10 production weeks in Q4 my 5.5k per week seems low by the options given, but regardless of what the factory can potentially turn out, the numbers always seem to be well below those limits -- otherwise would be looking at something like 8k per week with 80,000 estimated.

Your company must have a generous PTO policy.

 

[humbaba]

Your company must have a generous PTO policy.

Hey, I'm just going by what others (here in the TMC forum) have said with respect to work weeks at Fremont. But between Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years I can understand why there could be fewer work than calendar weeks.

You said you wanted basis for the number so I gave it. If you don't like the 10 work week go with 13, either way I think 5.5k per week is -- as far as any prognostication goes -- a reasonable guesstimate. A 13 work week quarter gives you 71.5 M3's produced.

 

[Heimdallr]

I think Tesla will guide 65,000 to 70,000. High confidence they can reach an average of 5,000 per week over the 13 weeks, with possible bursts all the way up to 7,000 or even 8,000.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think Tesla will guide 65,000 to 70,000. High confidence they can reach an average of 5,000 per week over the 13 weeks, with possible bursts all the way up to 7,000 or even 8,000.

If Tesla achieves 52,500, the mid-point of its Q3 guidance, then I expect 70,000 to 75,000 to be the Q4 guidance.

I expect 75,000 Model 3's to be produced in Q4, or 6,500 weekly average for 11.5 production weeks, with 1.5 weeks of holidays.