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4th Generation Tesla - "Affordable for all"

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Snow Drift

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Feb 10, 2016
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According to Bloomberg:

Elon Musk as reported by Jonas Cho Walsgard said:
Important with affordable EVs in future, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says at conference in Oslo.
Model 3 affordable for half of people, 4th generation will be affordable for everyone

So...

Gen 1.0 = Roadster
Gen 2.0 = Model S
Gen 2.5 = Model X
Gen 3.0 = Model 3
Gen 3.5 = Model Y (CUV)
Gen 4.0 = ?????

Would this be more like a Honda Fit ($16k) or Subaru Impreza ($18k)?
 
After the Y is the new Roadster, which is due in 2019. We probably won't see gen 4 until 2025 if I had to guess.

Well, I'd probably say that if Tesla really is considering a Gen 4 platform 2025 is probably a bit pessimistic. Yes, they still have the roadster and and pickup truck to do after the Model 3 and Model Y, but with the revenue they get from those vehicles they can probably afford to accelerate more rapidly. So, maybe something as early as 2022 wouldn't be so unrealistic. It would probably take until 2025 or so to get to full volume though.

The main thing here is what kind of vehicle will it compete with and at what volume do they intend to produce it. Something like this could potentially help Tesla get to several million units per year. At those volumes they would really make a dent.
 
1) I would venture the Roadster 3.0 is built on the Model 3 platform--creating platforms is expensive and on a low volume product, they would be hard pressed to make the money back
2) I think $35K is the lowest price point you ever see--Tesla positions itself as a premium brand--moving that far down-market will undermine their brand. Hopefully, someone will be inspired by the 400K reservations and look to tackle the power end segments, but before that can happen, battery costs have to drop even further unless its positioned as a city car with sub-100 mile range.
 
Maybe what he meant by an affordable gen 4 Tesla is an automated, rented Uber/Lyft type model. Still a Tesla, but rented or fractionally owned (or maybe he's counting the Roadster as Gen 0, I think I would...;)).

I agree with @roblab, affordability is a moving target. My opinion is that 35k will be lowest price Tesla for purchase. Rental maybe something else altogether.
 
I would expect the Gen 4 car before the pickup truck. Battery densities will have to go through a couple more generations before it will be feasible to make something that un-aerodynamic as an EV. Because the way the efficiency curves work, aerodynamics is a much more important factor at freeway speeds for an EV than for an ICE.
 
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Not sure Tesla would want to compete in the sub 20k price range. Leave that to the Bolts and Leafs and such. No way most people will pay $37k for those when you can have a Model 3 for less (base anyway). Chevy and Nissan will have to drop prices or up their design game significantly.
 
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I had to think about this for a while. Listening to what he said (thanks for posting pr0teu5), I think there probably will be an affordable sub 20-30k Tesla EV, IF there is nothing else out there by the time the model 3 and Y are mainstream.

While most premium legacy automakers would avoid that market like the plague, since it would "dilute" and "cheapen" the brand, EM's goal is to move us from ICE vehicles to EVs. I am thinking like all the premium automakers, and just realized Elon likely doesn't think like they do.

So now I believe that IF there is no sub 30k market (new cars, 200+ range) out there for EVs after the 3, and Y, Tesla will make them. I don't believe he intends to have a dichotomous market of upper end EVs, and lower end ICE, which is where it could potentially go (since the legacy automakers will likely just churn out cheaper ICE cars to stay alive rather than retool and reinvest in EVs). So he will fill that market niche if there is nothing out there.
 
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I absolutely think that Tesla would try their hand at a budget model - IF battery costs sink further (keep in mind that Lithium prices will probably rise significantly and make this a bit more difficult) it would seem to be the thing to do. I don't think EM is too preoccupied with keeping the Brand exclusively in the luxury segment... That is one of the things that makes Tesla great.... Good point though that the Bold and Leaf will have to significantly come down in price.... If the Model 3 ends up costing what it is supposed to, then very few people will even consider them an option... Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
I'm not sure that Tesla making a car that's cheaper than the Model 3 will necessarily be marketed as outside their current luxury ethos. I really wouldn't be surprised if it was marketed as a small city car rather than simply a cheap car. I think the best analogues would be the Audi a3 and the Mercedes CLA. As for the price I could see something at $25k-$28k as fitting squarely within the budget of most people.
 
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Everyone owning a car isn't the way to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport.

Tesla products can be made more accessible and affordable through a car or ride sharing program. I wouldn't mind a Tesla-designed autonomous UberPool pay-per-use service to complement mass transit, walking, and cycling.
 
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