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4th Generation Tesla - "Affordable for all"

Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by Snow Drift, Apr 21, 2016.

  1. Snow Drift

    Snow Drift Member

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    According to Bloomberg:

    So...

    Gen 1.0 = Roadster
    Gen 2.0 = Model S
    Gen 2.5 = Model X
    Gen 3.0 = Model 3
    Gen 3.5 = Model Y (CUV)
    Gen 4.0 = ?????

    Would this be more like a Honda Fit ($16k) or Subaru Impreza ($18k)?
     
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  2. Electric700

    Electric700 Member

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    That will be really good, and the prices you mention seem about right. I'm also hoping they come out with a 100% electric truck by 2020.

    Who knows, may be by 2030 we'll start seeing 100% electric Tesla semi-trailer trucks and airplanes too :cool:
     
  3. Xaff

    Xaff Member

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    After the Y is the new Roadster, which is due in 2019. We probably won't see gen 4 until 2025 if I had to guess.
     
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  4. pr0teu5

    pr0teu5 Member

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    Well, I'd probably say that if Tesla really is considering a Gen 4 platform 2025 is probably a bit pessimistic. Yes, they still have the roadster and and pickup truck to do after the Model 3 and Model Y, but with the revenue they get from those vehicles they can probably afford to accelerate more rapidly. So, maybe something as early as 2022 wouldn't be so unrealistic. It would probably take until 2025 or so to get to full volume though.

    The main thing here is what kind of vehicle will it compete with and at what volume do they intend to produce it. Something like this could potentially help Tesla get to several million units per year. At those volumes they would really make a dent.
     
  5. ggnykk

    ggnykk Active Member

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    I seriously doubt any Tesla in the future will ever go below $20k. Especially when you are talking about 2025 in time-value adjusted basis.
     
  6. Snow Drift

    Snow Drift Member

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    If the goal is to move everyone to electric you need to make cars for most demographics. Then again, Tesla could stay premium and hope someone else fills the lower end.
     
  7. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    Affordable for all??? That's a moving target!

    Everybody wants a $500 Tesla. New. Yup. That's all I can afford.

    You can buy a new gas car for around $15,000, and there are those who "can't afford" them.
     
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  8. omarsultan

    omarsultan Active Member

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    1) I would venture the Roadster 3.0 is built on the Model 3 platform--creating platforms is expensive and on a low volume product, they would be hard pressed to make the money back
    2) I think $35K is the lowest price point you ever see--Tesla positions itself as a premium brand--moving that far down-market will undermine their brand. Hopefully, someone will be inspired by the 400K reservations and look to tackle the power end segments, but before that can happen, battery costs have to drop even further unless its positioned as a city car with sub-100 mile range.
     
  9. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Maybe what he meant by an affordable gen 4 Tesla is an automated, rented Uber/Lyft type model. Still a Tesla, but rented or fractionally owned (or maybe he's counting the Roadster as Gen 0, I think I would...;)).

    I agree with @roblab, affordability is a moving target. My opinion is that 35k will be lowest price Tesla for purchase. Rental maybe something else altogether.
     
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  10. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    I would expect the Gen 4 car before the pickup truck. Battery densities will have to go through a couple more generations before it will be feasible to make something that un-aerodynamic as an EV. Because the way the efficiency curves work, aerodynamics is a much more important factor at freeway speeds for an EV than for an ICE.
     
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  11. pr0teu5

    pr0teu5 Member

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    For those of you who haven't seen it yet here's the conference where Elon mentions the "fourth generation" and "smaller cars." You should start at about 12:15, but he says it at 12:50 or so.

     
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  12. jonnyg

    jonnyg Member

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    Not sure Tesla would want to compete in the sub 20k price range. Leave that to the Bolts and Leafs and such. No way most people will pay $37k for those when you can have a Model 3 for less (base anyway). Chevy and Nissan will have to drop prices or up their design game significantly.
     
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  13. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    I had to think about this for a while. Listening to what he said (thanks for posting pr0teu5), I think there probably will be an affordable sub 20-30k Tesla EV, IF there is nothing else out there by the time the model 3 and Y are mainstream.

    While most premium legacy automakers would avoid that market like the plague, since it would "dilute" and "cheapen" the brand, EM's goal is to move us from ICE vehicles to EVs. I am thinking like all the premium automakers, and just realized Elon likely doesn't think like they do.

    So now I believe that IF there is no sub 30k market (new cars, 200+ range) out there for EVs after the 3, and Y, Tesla will make them. I don't believe he intends to have a dichotomous market of upper end EVs, and lower end ICE, which is where it could potentially go (since the legacy automakers will likely just churn out cheaper ICE cars to stay alive rather than retool and reinvest in EVs). So he will fill that market niche if there is nothing out there.
     
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  14. jame521

    jame521 Member

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    I absolutely think that Tesla would try their hand at a budget model - IF battery costs sink further (keep in mind that Lithium prices will probably rise significantly and make this a bit more difficult) it would seem to be the thing to do. I don't think EM is too preoccupied with keeping the Brand exclusively in the luxury segment... That is one of the things that makes Tesla great.... Good point though that the Bold and Leaf will have to significantly come down in price.... If the Model 3 ends up costing what it is supposed to, then very few people will even consider them an option... Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
     
  15. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    Tesla has never labeled itself as a premium brand, they had to start that way. He says in that video if he could have started with a cheaper version, he would have. Please remember the Master Plan.
     
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  16. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Great point about the battery. Reading some of the investor threads, seems the battery demand is pretty high (power wall). Sounds like GigaFactory 2 will be a necessity sooner rather than later...
     
  17. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Yes, that is my bias, which I am beginning to disabuse myself of... Hard to do, since the car is so good!
     
  18. Bangor Bob

    Bangor Bob Member

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    If VAG can sell both the Porsche 918 and a VW Polo, then Tesla can sell both a Model S and a B-segment car...
     
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  19. pr0teu5

    pr0teu5 Member

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    I'm not sure that Tesla making a car that's cheaper than the Model 3 will necessarily be marketed as outside their current luxury ethos. I really wouldn't be surprised if it was marketed as a small city car rather than simply a cheap car. I think the best analogues would be the Audi a3 and the Mercedes CLA. As for the price I could see something at $25k-$28k as fitting squarely within the budget of most people.
     
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  20. michaelwb

    michaelwb Member

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    Everyone owning a car isn't the way to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport.

    Tesla products can be made more accessible and affordable through a car or ride sharing program. I wouldn't mind a Tesla-designed autonomous UberPool pay-per-use service to complement mass transit, walking, and cycling.
     
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