4th Generation Tesla - "Affordable for all"

[EinSV]

Tesla's "Secret Master Plan" has always called for building lower priced models "as fast as possible" (see quote below). Elon's quote in the original post above is just the logical next step after Models 3 and Y.

"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."

I would guess that Gen 4 will launch in about the 2021-22 timeframe and be priced in the $25-30K price range. With fuel savings from electric power instead of gasoline that will be an affordable vehicle for a very large number of people.

 

[Ludus]

I think by the time Tesla would build it in the 2020's it will be pretty obvious that the market segment for the most "affordable" cars is rapidly
dying.

Who exactly wants to buy the cheapest, least comfortable cars? Pretty much people who have no reasonable alternative. When you can get excellent service from Mobility fleets for the same cost or less why buy a cheap car and let it sit around 95% of the time while you pay for insurance, parking and upkeep?

Oddly I think the high end market where Tesla already dominates will be the most secure for continuing sales to end customers. There may be a desperate struggle for the shrinking "affordable" market among legacy carmakers that need the volume.

[I'm assuming most new cars are autonomous by 2025, have been operated in OEM controlled Mobility fleets since 2019 or so, and by 2030 major cities are making human drivers illegal]

 

[MartinAustin]

Lots of good points in this thread. My $0.02...

Very happy to hear Elon mention "fourth generation" - now it is official that there will be another car, that isn't a roadster or a truck. (my opinion)

Tesla's mission is to replace EVERY gasoline car with an electric one. This includes Mazda 2's and Tata Nano's. You can bet that they will look hard at making cars as cheap as they can. There are always people too poor to afford a car. The goal is for them to buy an electric car instead of a used gasoline car. You do this either by bringing down the price of new AND used electric cars. A cheaper product is a great way to create that market.

In addition to being physically smaller, a cheaper car can have older technologies that are tried and tested (so long as the parts are still cheap to manufacture... sometimes older components go up in price) Also a shorter range than other cars in the Tesla range - perhaps it will be a true "City car" like the BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf currently are - though I think not.

All the while though, battery gravimetric and specific densities keep improving, so don't be surprised if there's a 55kWh battery in a $20,000 car by 2025. That could give a small car compelling interior space and decent range - perhaps staying above 200 miles. My money is on a 2-door hatchback.

I bought a Honda Civic in 2002 for $16,000. It appears to still be in that price range 14 years later. (yes it has fallen in price, in real terms) Perhaps $16,000 will remain an entry-level sort of price for Honda cars. As some have pointed out, by 2025 there will be a lot of cheap electricity around, and the financial savings Tesla will reap over gasoline cars (both for energy and for maintenance of things like engine and brakes) will be significant for buyers. It could be that the base price of the fourth generation car might be $20,000, and buyers will understand that those savings will cause the car to cost about as much as a $16,000 gasoline car that still needs expensive fuel, engine and brake maintenance.

Key thing is, ONLY Tesla will have the expertise in producing low-cost batteries required to sell a truly amazing small car. Everyone else is still playing catch-up and I don't see that being much different by 2025.

 

[tree]

The Motley Fool has elaborated on that Gen 4 vehicle mentioned by Musk in Norway. After Model 3 will come Model Y. You can imagine Tesla potentially targeting a price point in the neighborhood of $20,000 next. Meanwhile, we already know that Musk wants to do an electric truck at some point.

After Model 3, Tesla Motors Will Make an Even More Affordable Car -- The Motley Fool

 

[voyager]

 

[wdolson]

Europe has much denser population densities than many parts of the US, so this isn't as big a problem there as here, but when population densities get below various thresholds, mass transit costs more and is more polluting because you have a bus that gets 6 mpg hauling three passengers. Mini buses on those routs help, but they still are less efficient. We live in the outer suburbs of the Portland metro area and there is bus service out here that runs mostly empty during off peak hours. I did some calculations in my head and when the bus had fewer than 12 passengers, it cost less in fuel for those 12 passengers to drive economy cars themselves rather than ride the bus. That doesn't even include the cost of running the bus or the wages for the bus driver.

Light rail requires even higher population densities to make sense. Most mass transit systems need to support highly unprofitable routes to the edges of their service area to accommodate passengers who can't drive for some reason. Autonomous vehicles available for light transit areas would reduce the costs of running mass transit aren't practical.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm not sure if the story on the following link is viable or what, but IF its true, then I'm getting angry. The article states that Elon Musk is talking about a Model 4. The model that is going to come after Model 3. For crying out loud...it doesn't even complete the word S≡XY. What does S≡X4?


COME ON!!! You haven't even built the factory for the Model 3 yet. Are you going to have a Model 4 kickoff in June requiring another $1000 for a car that will be released in 2025?

Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3

Check out the video around the 12 minute mark.

 

[theganjaguru]

I'm not sure if the story on the following link is viable or what, but IF its true, then I'm getting angry. The article states that Elon Musk is talking about a Model 4. The model that is going to come after Model 3. For crying out loud...it doesn't even complete the word S≡XY. What does S≡X4?


COME ON!!! You haven't even built the factory for the Model 3 yet. Are you going to have a Model 4 kickoff in June requiring another $1000 for a car that will be released in 2025?

Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3

Check out the video around the 12 minute mark.

..
Elon has decided to go big pimin. The 4 will be followed by a small SUV. It will be called the U (utility) New acronym is S.≡.X.4.U

 

[EinSV]

Now, now. In fairness, this has been the plan for 10 years:

"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

IMHO, Model 3 is going to ramp much faster than the pessimists project, and Model 4 will be released long before 2025.

 

[Drivin]

a 4 can be written to almost look like a Y

|_|
,, |



well, you get the idea

 

[Garlan Garner]

Now, now. In fairness, this has been the plan for 10 years:

"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

IMHO, Model 3 is going to ramp much faster than the pessimists project, and Model 4 will be released long before 2025.

That makes me feel much better.

 

[EinSV]

..
Elon has decided to go big pimin. The 4 will be followed by a small SUV. It will be called the U (utility) New acronym is S.≡.X.4.U

This is pure genius! Mix in a Model Y and you have S.≡.X.Y.4.U.

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is pure genius! Mix in a Model Y and you have S.≡.X.Y.4.U.

Hmmmm. That's true. So I guess he's going to need a model Y and U.

 

[vinnie97]

This may very well be the vehicle I have to wait for given my health and financial straits. It also means maximizing range at a much lower cost in comparison to the Model 3.

 

[Thalass]

The Model Ute. It works! Headcanon confirmed.

 

[EinSV]

This is pure genius! Mix in a Model Y and you have S.≡.X.Y.4.U.

You can also mix in a Model R (new roadster):

S.≡.X.Y.R.4.U.

Spelling is overrated

 

[Patrick0101]

Why would you be "a little angry" that Tesla has plans for vehicles beyond the Model 3? As a company, they need to have a roadmap of products that brings in more customers with each generation of vehicles. Since I want them to succeed long term, I am happy to hear this. It's not as if this announcement slows down the delivery of M3 at all; not even one day. Are you worried about the Osborne Effect? M3 has plenty of demand. In fact, Tesla may even want some people to opt for the M4 (or MY) so they can fulfill a higher percentage of M3 orders under the full federal incentive umbrella.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Why would you be "a little angry" that Tesla has plans for vehicles beyond the Model 3?

I explained why in my opening post. Its my opinion.

 

[McHoffa]

You HAVE to expect them to make an even more affordable car as soon as they can. Of course, it would be the size of a civic, or a hatchback probably, rather than a BMW 3 series competitor.

First though, they have to make the Model 3. They won't even fill preorders before 2019. Then there is the Model Y that Elon mentioned that will have falcon wing doors, most likely built on the Model 3 platform. Then the roadster followup. The 4th generation (they didn't say Model 4) will probably be in 2025, which is a decade from now. Remember, a decade ago, the Roadster was just being built, with the Model S just being in design phase and the 3rd generation being a far off idea.

Of course they'll have newer, more affordable cars in 10 years. But they'll have the Model 3 in just 18 months or so

 

[Lem89]

For those of you who haven't seen it yet here's the conference where Elon mentions the "fourth generation" and "smaller cars." You should start at about 12:15, but he says it at 12:50 or so.

An important point in that video is Musk explaining how ICE vehicles are subsidized way more than electric vehicles. I never knew this info myself and will look into it more myself.

As for a cheaper 4th gen, it's the only step that makes sense for Tesla's mission, accelerating the advent of sustainable transport. Musk explains that half of the market can afford its Model 3 which is priced like a new Audi or an entry BMW, but obviously the majority of people cannot afford these luxury cars. So at some point, hopefully soon, there needs to be an EV alternative have to Camrys and Civics if they want the masses to adopt electric. It's the simple, logical next step.