5 Myths About Energy in America

[NigelM]

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/10/27/5-myths-about-energy-in-america/

Myth No. 1: The world is about to run out of oil.

Myth No. 2: We import all of our oil from the Middle East.

Myth No. 3: Conservation isn't a meaningful part of our energy strategy.

Myth No. 4: Electric cars will have a huge impact on our auto fleet over the next 10-20 years.

Myth No. 5: Wind and solar are clearly the key to our future energy needs.

Fire away....

 

[efusco]

OMG! ""[T]he world has decades of further production growth before flattening out into a plateau -- perhaps sometime around mid-century -- at which time a more gradual decline will begin."


And this is "OK"--we've got until the mid-Century!? That's freaking scary as hell! My children will be middle age. My grandchildren will be young children. Let's just pretend the problem doesn't exist today and dump in in the laps of our grandchildren to solve--freaking brilliant plan.

I don't know anyone who think that his "Myth"s #2 and #4 are true.

#3--yea, we're conserving more, but we still use more than anywhere else.

#5--not the immediate future, but a good goal to work toward.

 

[TEG]

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/10/27/5-myths-about-energy-in-america/

...Yergin cautions, however, that even under the most aggressive scenario, "[O]nly about 3% of the automobile fleet by 2020 would be electric vehicles." Ultimately, he wants to see what happens over the next five years or so before getting too optimistic about this emerging trend...

Hard to argue for or against a "crystal-ball" prediction, but I have seen others suggest they think higher than 3%...
Let's check back later and see if Nissan's Ghosn is closer to the mark...
Ghosn: 10% Electric Cars by 2020
Carlos Ghosn: EVs could account 10 percent of global sales in 2020
Dont Tell Tesla: In 2020, Sales Of Electric Vehicles Will Be Less Than 8% Of The Global Market | TechCrunch

(I suppose the numbers depend on your definition of 'electric vehicle'. Do you include REEVs like the Volt? Plug-in-hybrids like the Plug-in-Prius?)


​

 

[NigelM]

Hard to argue for or against a "crystal-ball" prediction, but I have seen others suggest they think higher than 3%...

Yergin though attempts a self-fulfilling argument: we have plenty of oil, and don't worry about the middle east, so he isn't sure that electric cars will gain traction.....

 

[richkae]

Myth No. 1: The world is about to run out of oil.

This is my favorite because it is irrelevant. What is relevant is that demand is growing and supply can not keep up. The most accurate statement about supply is that the cost of the new oil supply is increasing dramatically. Those two things combine to mean oil prices rise and rise dramatically.

We will *never* "run out" of oil. At some point the oil remaining in the ground will be more expensive to pump up and use than an alternate energy source. Whoever takes advantage of and controls the alternate energy sources first will benefit the most.
That situation is going to arrive while there is still a LOT of oil in the ground.

 

[PopSmith]

#1 - The Tupi oil field (as an example) was discovered in 2006. At that time it was "the largest oil discovery in 30 years". How much oil does it contain? Enough oil to meet global supply for...........................three months.

#2 - No matter were the oil comes from, the fact is we're going to run out of oil at some point.

#4 - This one depends on too many factors, in my opinion, to call either way.

#5 - They won't become our greatest source of energy for sometime, possibly never, but every bit of renewable energy produced (instead of non-renewable) helps.

 

[richkae]

Dont Tell Tesla: In 2020, Sales Of Electric Vehicles Will Be Less Than 8% Of The Global Market | TechCrunch
​

From that article:
J.D. Power says from their research, a very clear, dominant demographic emerged: “buyers of HEVs and BEVs are generally older, more highly educated (possessing a postgraduate degree), high-income individuals who have a deep interest in technology, or who like to be among the early adopters of any new technology product.”

How about providing the data without coloring it with their biased conclusions? Here is my biased conclusion: "Buyers of HEVs and BEVs are generally more highly educated people who can do math and see that the long term cost and total cost of ownership of the HEV or BEV is much less than an ICE."

 

[bolosky]

J.D. Power says from their research, a very clear, dominant demographic emerged: “buyers of HEVs and BEVs are generally older, more highly educated (possessing a postgraduate degree), high-income individuals who have a deep interest in technology, or who like to be among the early adopters of any new technology product.”

In other words, the early adopters of EV are....early adopters! It doesn't seem safe to conclude from this that only early adopter types will ever buy them, however.

 

[qwk]

That article is pretty much guaranteed to be sponsored by big oil.....

 

[zack]

That "article" is an ad. Read to this paragraph:

One thing we do know for sure is that there are incredible opportunities for investors right now within the energy sector. To learn more about one idea that we're particularly excited about, take a look at this free report, which highlights the "one energy stock you'll ever need." It's completely free -- click here to get your report right now.

 

[TEG]

That article seems to be a quote fest from Daniel Yergin's report.

Here is another story about his work:
Can Big Oil Survive Russian Roulette? - DailyFinance

... the co-founder and chairman of Boston's Cambridge Energy Research Associates...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_Energy_Research_Associates

...Peak Oil As the controversy over Peak Oil intensified in 2006, CERA found itself on the optimistic side of predictions, forecasting that a peak would not occur before 2020, and this would not be a "peak" but rather an "undulating plateau". [SUP][2][/SUP] This opinion has been met with criticism by those who believe a peak has already occurred or is imminent.[2][3][4][5] In June of 2008, CERA called $120-$150 per barrel the "break point" for oil, the point where demand erosion would halt the price rise.[6]
CERA researchers have predicted in September 2009 that peak demand has come and gone in the OECD world, likely sometime in 2005. This is not, however, in agreement with peak oil, which is more on the extraction and production side. CERA continues to believe that there is plenty of oil under ground. In predicting peak demand in developed countries, CERA states that long-term demand is softening as a result of demographic and socioeconomic changes in developed countries (such as the aging of OECD populations), improved transportation efficiency, and encroachment by substitutes such as biofuels and natural gas. [SUP][3][/SUP]
Leadership

• Daniel Yergin, Chairman
• James Rosenfield, Co-Founder...

The Sad Record of Daniel Yergin and Cambridge Energy Research Associateshttp://home.entouch.net/dmd/cera.htm​

 

[TEG]

Another related:
Yergin: Only politics can threaten energy supplies

...
AP: How will electric cars change gasoline demand?
YERGIN: It's still the very early days. In our most optimistic scenario we show that about ten percent of (global) new car sales in 2020 could be electric vehicles. That's still a lot of cars. But it's a small part of the overall market. So you don't really start to see the impact until 2030.
...

So he says 10% one place, and 3% another?