I am posting this to share some information and seek some input.
After years of waiting, I am getting close to ordering my MX 90D. I was able to test drive an MX on March 26, 2016 for the allotted 15 minutes. (This test drive required me to travel several hours each way over Easter weekend.) I liked the car and configured at that time, but I have not ordered.
I have had my reservation for about 2½ years. (My reservation number is 5xxx.) I have had virtually no substantive communication from Tesla during that time. I was happy to receive an email from Tesla on April 4, 2016. The email stated:
“We've ramped up Model X production significantly and accelerated delivery timelines. In just a couple of weeks, we'll be opening up orders online and in-store for Model X. Before we do that, we'd like to invite you to configure yours first.” I called a Model X hotline that the email mentioned was available for immediate assistance. I was told that this “opening” will occur in a couple of weeks.
Tesla’s email encouragement to order stated: “If you confirm now, the estimated delivery window is April/May 2016.” As I suspected, this is not true for those who want a 5-seater. To the contrary, two people at Tesla told me that if I order my 5-seater now, I could expect to get it: 1) in the second half of the year, and 2) before the end of the year (not “mid-2016" as currently indicated on the Tesla web site). This is a potential complication for receiving the tax credit for this year.
I would like to spend more than 15 minutes driving the MX before committing to it. I have been unable to see a 5-seater or get much information about it. Also, I was told by two people at Tesla that an MX will be available to see in a store in Florida by the end of April 2016. Assuming that this is accurate, I think it pays to wait at least for that opportunity (even if it means another multi-hour trip to test drive the MX).
If you have any estimate of the practical effect of Tesla “opening up orders online and in-store for Model X” for a customer who wants to buy a 5-seater, please let me know. How many 5-seat orders are likely to jump ahead of me per week or month? There is no reliable information as to when Tesla will actually start to produce the 5-seater.
For reasons that are obvious to anyone who has spent time on TMC, I cannot depend on Tesla’s stated time frames. I am not comfortable giving them too much lead time to produce my 5-seat MX. They now say they will deliver it by the end of the year. What if, after I order, delivery takes even longer than the end of the year (or doesn't come at all due to lack of customers)? (Should I bet my time and deposit against that?)