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50,000 th Model S to be produced this month?

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by krla, Aug 4, 2014.

  1. krla

    krla Member

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    Production numbers were not always exactly communicated but here goes

    2012 = 3100+
    Q1 2013 = 5000+
    Q2 2013 = 5450 estimated by me based on guidance and deliveries
    Q3 2013 = 6600 estimated by me based on guidance and deliveries
    Q4 2013 = 6587
    Q1 2013 = 7535
    Q2 2014 = 8763
    3 weeks at 800/week before production was halted for retooling = 2400

    This brings us today to at least 45,500 units

    So at a run rate of 1000 per week as of tomorrow (5 Aug) we should reach 50,000 at the end of August or early September.

    (Doing the same calculation for deliveries but with exact numbers brings us to mid October)
     
  2. Evbwcaer

    Evbwcaer Member

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    I've got #49,867 coming on 9/17. I live in MN, so I figure a week to get it to me.
     
  3. hileyms

    hileyms Member

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  4. macpacheco

    macpacheco Member

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    Is Tesla producing @ 1000/wk cause it managed to stockpile Li-Ion cells during retooling or has supply increased ?
    1000/wk = 56k / year, that might mean 60k deliveries in 2015 or more... Amazing.
    Tesla might deliver the 100k Model S + Model X in 2015. Fingers crossed.
     
  5. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Tesla Motors asked Panasonic for more batteries around November 2013. Panasonic said, "No." That's why Tesla initially put off the Model X to 1st Quarter 2014. It took several months to negotiate a deal whereby Panasonic finally agreed to send more batteries than initially requested. The first of those larger shipments arrived in August 2014, just after the shut down to increase capacity.

    I believe that Tesla Motors will be operating at a level whereby production will trail capacity for a while. That is, this year capacity at Fremont was increased to 50,000... But projected production/deliveries will only be 35,000. I think that pattern will hold. Fremont's capacity will increase to 100,000 in 2015, but production may only reach about 60,000... There will be another increase to 200,000 capacity in 2016... But production will probably be about 140,000.

    Oh, but when 2017 rolls around, production will practically explode as they begin to sell Tesla Model ☰.
     
  6. mrElbe

    mrElbe Member

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    I wonder if you can really go by serial number. Are cancelled VINs recycled or skipped?
     
  7. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Skipped. Once a chassis is assigned a serial number, if it is scrapped the VIN is scrapped.
     
  8. macpacheco

    macpacheco Member

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    #8 macpacheco, Oct 26, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2014
    If your predictions hold true, it means a couple important things:
    1 - There is no demand limitations in Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X markets, contradicting Tesla naysayers that affirm model S demand isn't growing (at least in North America)
    2 - It sustains explosive growth even without the cheaper car, which means Tesla cash flow should be able to afford both the Gigafactory and the cheaper car tooling without any further bond sales
    3 - By early 2017 we might have a quarter million Tesla cars on the roads, even without the new car... Awesome !
    4 - The worldwide luxury car market is about 5 million units / yr. So 5% is 250k cars / yr. Tesla needs to get there ASAP to bring pain to the rest of the market that continues to move glacially torwards EVs. Until Tesla sales begin to threaten the luxury cars enough that luxury mfgs are forced to properly train dealers to sell more EVs in order to compete with Tesla. If Tesla gets 10% of the market, then the last voices that keep saying Tesla will fail will quiet down. Plus half a million cars @ avg $ 90k / car is tens of billions US$ / year in sales.
     

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