500,000 M3's, but Where Do They Go?

[Quietninja22]

I understand that there are currently at or above 400k M3 reservations and that Tesla wants and needs to produce them as quickly as possible, but with Musk's plan to build 500k per year, where will the cars go? I know relatively little about S demand currently, but I assume it has varied since launch. In a perfect world, everybody who saw the car would want the car and order one, but you and I both know that there will be those that wish to hold on to their souped up gas-guzzlers until it is illegal. So my question to you is, where does Musk plan for the M3's to go?

 

[eloder]

Look at the number of Model S's shipped yearly compared to initial reservations/pre-orders.

There's your answer.

 

[zenmaster]

In a perfect world, everybody who saw the car would want the car and order one, but you and I both know that there will be those that wish to hold on to their souped up gas-guzzlers until it is illegal.

It doesn't work the way you think. The M3 would be a competitive value in the market and popular on that basis.

 

[Colsla]

About 100 million cars are sold per year world wide. There are many countries Tesla hasnt been introduced, but 500k cars a year is a drop in a bucket at 0.5% ish of the total market with 50 countries Tesla will sell their cars to. (50 comes from the dropdown list of Model 3 Reservation page. It may be 49.. but you get the idea)

Edit: 500k cars arent Model 3's. It will be the combination of Model S, X and 3. In addition, according to rumors, Tesla will introduce new Roadster in 2019

 

[SageBrush]

So my question to you is, where does Musk plan for the M3's to go?

Off-hand, to the same place the other 14 odd million new cars go each year in the US: towards replacing the fraction of the fleet lost.

WAG: A car has ~ 3 owners through its life

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Also, the ramp up just means that they get to a point where they CAN produce 500,000 cars annually, not that they have to. If for some reason the demand scales back then they can limit production as needed.

Dan

 

[proven]

From a anecdotal, non scientific perspective, I've talked to so many people who are interested in the Model 3 and they haven't put down a reservation (yet). Once the car is out there and people get to see it I think demand will only go up.

 

[JeffK]

If Elon was really holding back something awesome about the Model 3 that won't be revealed until the second reveal then I can see demand going up even more.

At this point in our society I don't know if a more advanced autopilot is enough of a selling point to cause the increase in demand he's expecting. People would be too cautious to get terribly excited besides us geeky folk. I'm sure they'll have no trouble selling as many as possible for the foreseeable future.

 

[ecarfan]

So my question to you is, where does Musk plan for the M3's to go?

To customers who pay for them.

 

[zenmaster]

Increased range on single charge would be the biggest selling point.

Secondary to that, imo they need to sort out the kludgy protruding lcd screen.

 

[JeffK]

kludgy protruding lcd screen

I'm worried about kicking it (the corners) by mistake...

 

[deonb]

I'm worried about kicking it (the corners) by mistake...

Uhh...

You might want to have the ergonomics of your seating posture re-evaluated.

 

[zenmaster]

I'm worried about kicking it (the corners) by mistake...

Seems the likelihood of this would depend on the passenger's seating position. But yes I can see it getting kicked.

Here's wishful thinking and plot twist: the panel's base mount can accept a variety of display types and form factors.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I have dogs, and the wife and I have hinted that at some points, our romantic evenings may be for more than just recreational purposes.....


I'm worried about the dogs and/or the result of our serious evenings kicking, pulling, or otherwise snagging themselves on that screen.

Of course, once it's shipped off to military school, I'll only have to worry about the dogs.

 

[Zarwin]

I have dogs, and the wife and I have hinted that at some points, our romantic evenings may be for more than just recreational purposes.....


I'm worried about the dogs and/or the result of our serious evenings kicking, pulling, or otherwise snagging themselves on that screen.

Of course, once it's shipped off to military school, I'll only have to worry about the dogs.

 

[proven]

Increased range on single charge would be the biggest selling point.

Secondary to that, imo they need to sort out the kludgy protruding lcd screen.

The screen on the X prototype was also sticking out above the dash. I imagine the production version will be different.

 

[jerry33]

Secondary to that, imo they need to sort out the kludgy protruding lcd screen.

That is how they do the Alpha cars. The X was the same way. That way they can change out components quickly. No doubt production 3 will be the same as production X and S.

 

[malcolm]

Uhh...

You might want to have the ergonomics of your seating posture re-evaluated.

*sigh*

Yet another item for the owners manual FAQ

" Tesla does not recommend the Legs Akimbo driving position since this can interfere with your ability to take control of the vehicle from the Autopilot. In addition, you may accidentally kick the LCD screen with your other foot if the Autopilot brakes suddenly and manage to sound the horn using an unapproved method"

 

[ModelNforNerd]

*sigh*

Yet another item for the owners manual FAQ

" Tesla does not recommend the Legs Akimbo driving position since this can interfere with your ability to take over control of the vehicle from the Autopilot. In addition, you may accidentally kick the LCD screen with your other foot if the Autopilot brakes suddenly and manage to sound the horn using an unapproved method"

Imagine the punch you'd get if the airbags deployed in that scenario......YIKES!!!

 

[zenmaster]

The screen on the X prototype was also sticking out above the dash. I imagine the production version will be different.

I would think they are doing something novel and don't want to give competition ideas at this point. However, at demo//launch they already stated it would be what goes into production. So how to reconcile unless that too is an option?