500 kWh Battery

[ssiegler]

Good grief, I'm not sure why I'm even posting this as I'm sure I will get fah-lamed.

So, I'm having dinner tonight at a taqueria in Redwood City, and three guys in tesla jackets approach me.
The oldest old, who appeared to be Eatern European in his late 50's says "is that your X out there?"
"Yes," I say.
"I worked on the battery in that", he says.
"Cool! Hey, is it true that there will be a 100kWh battery soon?"
"500."
"500 miles?"
"Kilowatt-hours"
""
"Roadster will get next gen first".
Then my kids expire and I thank the gentleman and depart.

I do not believe for a second this is true, or if it is, he's talk about anything that we'd see in under 5 years.
But possibly, something was lost in translation and he did mean miles. Roadster might make sense give the recent upgrade strategy.

Anyway - the incident is 100% true. The guy for sure works for Tesla.
But the actual info - YMMV (pun intended).

 

[David99]

The Roadster will get the next gen batteries first? That's surprising.

 

[bredi]

ha! well, yeah, you might get "fah-lamed" but I believe you had this conversation.
There is no doubt this technology is at its infancy.
pretty cool story. The roadster certainly has the potential to be a test for new battery technology given its size and weight.

cool

 

[Jason S]

500Kwh Roadster... the tires on that thing better be huge.

But I could see Tesla building a supercar with 500Kwh battery base and the specs of a Bugatti Veyron. Prolly cost as much too.

 

[ohmman]

Then my kids expire and I thank the gentleman and depart.

Interesting conversation aside, I'm very sorry to hear about the fate of your children.

 

[ChadS]

Any chance he said "500 kilometers" instead of "500 kilowatt hours"?

 

[gaswalla]

yes, my condolences.

you're a true fan.. kids expire, and still you wrap up the conversation about future battery tech. I appreciate the dedication.

 

[dc_h]

Interesting conversation aside, I'm very sorry to hear about the fate of your children.

How was the play Mrs Lincoln?

 

[ssiegler]

Interesting conversation aside, I'm very sorry to hear about the fate of your children.

Ha. Yes. I meant it in cheeky abstract sense, as a timer would expire.
They were getting bored, saw something outside, made a mad dash for the door and I needed to chase after them.

Any chance he said "500 kilometers" instead of "500 kilowatt hours"?

Yeah - my transcript above is hard to follow - but yes I clarified "500 miles?"
And he said "kilowatt-hours". But definitely possible that there was a language barrier or perhaps partial brain freeze on his part there as a result of frequently translating miles to kWh and back.

I will say he said it with a sly grin, expecting I would be impressed.
Though that would be true for either case: 500 miles or 500 kWh.

 

[Johan]

In all fairness, if they could make a 500 kWh battery today with decent cycle life they wouldn't. They'd make a light 150 kWh battery from the same cells.

 

[wdolson]

I believe the battery upgrade for the Roadster is with LG Chem rather than Panasonic, so I doubt the Roadster upgrade and the Model S/X next battery chemistry are going to be the exact same thing. The announced LG Chem upgrade is going to increase the Roadster's pack to 70 KWh.

I believe jumping from 90Kwh to 500Kwh density is theoretically possible, but it would be a huge jump in energy density and there have been no confirmed rumors anyone has gotten close to that level of energy density. It may be the guy is working on long range battery technologies which may be coming out in 5-10 years. It's possible there may be some kind of 300-500Kwh battery by then if there has been a recent battery breakthrough that hasn't hit the press yet. It's very doubtful such a big breakthrough has stayed a secret for the time it would take between the discovery and entering production (several years).

I am skeptical, however there have been a lot of people on the supercharger thread observing that supercharger expansion is way down so far this year. It might just be Tesla is trying to save money and cutting back on supercharger expansion is one area they could cut. That is the more likely possibility than the battery capacity is about to expand around 5.5X.

 

[Kyle Hubb]

What’s next 720 mile Range EV? - Torque News

Maybe he's telling the truth.

 

[Boourns]

I would think the Semi is the most likely platform for a 500kWh battery.

 

[Electroman]

If I were you, I would have disowned my kids momentarily, bought him lunch and drinks, anything on the house on my dime, and pounded him with hundred questions.

 

[Chuq]

I would think the Semi is the most likely platform for a 500kWh battery.

Just what I was thinking. Trucks are already hugely expensive. The extra expense of a battery of that size can be absorbed easier.

 

[raysspl]

Would be nice. Law of accelerating returns would make this happen

 

[wdolson]

Semis also have make money for the owner. The cost of operation is a major factor when considering purchases. If an EV semi costs 2X an ICE but is significantly cheaper to run, it will sell well. That includes how much down time it has.

 

[david_42]

I've been following battery technology for 30 years and there is nothing even in the laboratory (Class 5 as Musk calls it) with this kind of energy density, except air-aluminum and no one has demonstrated a rechargeable version.

 

[wdolson]

I've been following battery technology for 30 years and there is nothing even in the laboratory (Class 5 as Musk calls it) with this kind of energy density, except air-aluminum and no one has demonstrated a rechargeable version.

Air-aluminum wouldn't be rechargeable, though if a battery could be made that could be quickly refurbished by changing the anodes. Al-air batteries have about 8X the energy density of current Li-ion batteries which get about 300 miles in a 90 KWh pack. If the batteries could be made to be quick and easy to refurbish, it would be like an oil change to refurbish a battery. For the driver, it could be done quickly at a battery swap station, than the batteries could be refurbished later.

However all of this might be too expensive to contemplate. It requires more infrastructure than the superchargers to support.

 

[Ulmo]

Air-aluminum wouldn't be rechargeable, though if a battery could be made that could be quickly refurbished by changing the anodes. Al-air batteries have about 8X the energy density of current Li-ion batteries which get about 300 miles in a 90 KWh pack. If the batteries could be made to be quick and easy to refurbish, it would be like an oil change to refurbish a battery. For the driver, it could be done quickly at a battery swap station, than the batteries could be refurbished later.

However all of this might be too expensive to contemplate. It requires more infrastructure than the superchargers to support.

The logistics would work out in a truck yard easier than in the errand-driven world of individual people. This would require that the "refurbish" cost was low.