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500 mi range S-X after Battery Day...?

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Even though I'm not effectected directly by the 'gates', it says a lot about Tesla both commercially, technically and morally how the capping issue gets resolved, and for me it should be top of battery day agenda.

What's the point of more extreme promises if the warranty and ethics aren't there to back them up? What's the point of (esp free) Supercharging if in reality you are just bringing on early demise of your battery? Without a binding 'battery condition indicator' ALL cars will suffer at resale due to buyer uncertainty and uncertain warranty cover for battery.

It's like the rush to ever higher CPU speeds back in the single core days where buyers latched onto that as a measure of performance, when all that happen was that memory had multiple wait-states added because it couldn't keep up. End result was little if any performance boost but less reliable systems. Just like adding more and more weight in the name of getting a higher range number for marketing purposes potentially puts more stress the rest of the car with minimal net gain.

I hope that there is an equal push for longevity with open disclosure and transparent warranty as well as option for longer range for those that really need it.
Well said, and increasingly relevant to many things regarding Tesla.
 
You should probably clarify something here. When you start a trip, you are at 100% but you seem to think you would start at 80%. That small difference and now you are at 550 miles with a one stop trip. That is a pretty long trip but everyone is different.

In the Model 3 world, we chose to spend $4k to go from 250 to 325. Partly because my Model S is a 70D and down to about 220. So the Model 3 was going to be our long range car. Especially with the much faster supercharging. We would not have paid another $4k to get to 400. (well maybe)

If we could assume higher pricing for the S and that a 400 miles S costs $75k, I think you would have buyers for a 500 mile S at $85k. I think that is fairly reasonable ask. You would still likely sell more 400 mile versions but the take rate would be reasonable. And then of course, the P would be the 500 mile battery and be that much faster.

There is a 200 pound weight difference between the 70D and 100D so I would predict that it could be done for another 200 pounds. Worked into a refresh and no suspension changes needed.

If I was planning a refresh, I would shoot to use 2170 and get the range to 500. I would also hope to keep overall weight the same. Personally, I would not need the 500 and would consider a "short" range option in the mid 300s.

Having lived with a 220 car and a 325 car for a combined 100k, I have very little use for a 325+ car. A use for sure but very little and not worth thousands.

I rarely ever start a trip at 100%. Coordinating the car to be at 100% just when I want to leave is not easy. Now if you don’t care about leaving your battery at 100% that fine. But if I charge 100% I wanna go. Also I don’t like charging to 100% in case things don’t go as planned, which happens. Now I have a full battery and no place to go. Trip might get canceled to to weather or a friend canceled. My life is not so smooth I guess.

As mentioned it’s not efficient time wise to charge above 80% at a super charger.

I’ve been looking at houses that are 120 miles away all summer. No SC within 50 miles of where I’m looking. The day of looking at a few houses is 400 miles. I’d have to stop twice for SC once on the way up and once on the way back. Also timing that with appointments is a pain too. So I take the Volt with no need to stop which makes the day easier. I’d love to take the X (326 “range”) but it requires to much planning to make it. This is with ideal weather and I average higher than EPA with the X. A real 500 mile range makes that all go away. Except if it was winter.
 
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Maybe they will announce a reasonably priced replacement 85 battery pack for all those people affected by batterygate and chargegate. I hope Tesla does right by it’s loyal customers for once.

I think you’re dreaming. I’m sure there are tons of mods through out the car as they tweak the batteries. Cooling has probably changed too. It’s also not just the battery that’s increasing the range. All doable but too costly and too little demand to invest in such a project.

They offered a new battery for Roadster. $40K and the car had to be shipped back to California.

Some day (maybe) the cars might be designed to be more modular in replacing the battery. But that adds cost up front too.
 
I think you’re dreaming. I’m sure there are tons of mods through out the car as they tweak the batteries. Cooling has probably changed too. It’s also not just the battery that’s increasing the range. All doable but too costly and too little demand to invest in such a project.

They offered a new battery for Roadster. $40K and the car had to be shipped back to California.

Some day (maybe) the cars might be designed to be more modular in replacing the battery. But that adds cost up front too.
The S was designed with “pit stop” 3-minute battery swaps in mind. But Supercharging became the standard instead.
 
I can last 5 hrs on a trip. At ave 70 mph that’s 350 of hwy range. I agree that the most efficient way to charge and deplete is 10% to 80%. So a 500Mi epa range would be actual 400 mile range at 80%. Subtract 10% for hwy speed inefficiency and you got 360 miles of hwy range. That’s perfect for me.

add 250 kw of peak charging, we can figure 165 kw charging average for the session. Assume 120 kWh battery and you will need 96 kWh of charge every stop to go the 360 miles. 96/165=35 min of charge time each 5 hrs. That’s perfect for a quick meal and potty break.

so please give me 120 kWh battery with 500mi epa range and 250 kw charging and I’m sold!! And please keep adding V3 charging stations!!
 
I can last 5 hrs on a trip. At ave 70 mph that’s 350 of hwy range. I agree that the most efficient way to charge and deplete is 10% to 80%. So a 500Mi epa range would be actual 400 mile range at 80%. Subtract 10% for hwy speed inefficiency and you got 360 miles of hwy range. That’s perfect for me.

add 250 kw of peak charging, we can figure 165 kw charging average for the session. Assume 120 kWh battery and you will need 96 kWh of charge every stop to go the 360 miles. 96/165=35 min of charge time each 5 hrs. That’s perfect for a quick meal and potty break.

so please give me 120 kWh battery with 500mi epa range and 250 kw charging and I’m sold!! And please keep adding V3 charging stations!!
Sounds great, only question is if newer cars will also suffer from batterygate and chargegate like older cars. I’ve only had my 2020 LR+ for 5 months and 3500 miles, guess we will find out in a few years.
 
I take back what I said earlier. I suppose Tesla will need to go 500+ miles to avoid falling behind Lucid.

Lucid Air EV Has a Projected 517 Miles of Range

Meh.

Important to note you'll damn well NEED 500 miles in a Lucid given the piss-poor state of non-Telsa L3 charging infrastructure (in the US at least). If I'm spending my money, a 400 mile Tesla plus Supercharger network beats a 500 mile "other car" without Supercharger network every time.

Not to mention Lucid still needing to prove they can deliver a product and operate sustainably.
 
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I take back what I said earlier. I suppose Tesla will need to go 500+ miles to avoid falling behind Lucid.

Lucid Air EV Has a Projected 517 Miles of Range

I don't think so. The prototypes that were able to eke out 517 miles in "independent testing" are not fully loaded production vehicles. As I've seen 110kWh quoted for the battery pack, I don't see 500+ miles being achievable on the EPA test cycle. That would come out to 4.7 miles/kWh in a rather heavy vehicle on a test cycle weighted towards "city' driving.
 
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I don't think so. The prototypes that were able to eke out 517 miles in "independent testing" are not fully loaded production vehicles. As I've seen 110kWh quoted for the battery pack, I don't see 500+ miles being achievable on the EPA test cycle. That would come out to 4.7kWh/mile in a rather heavy vehicle on a test cycle weighted towards "city' driving.

math problem here. Those numbers (110 KWh and 517 mile range) give 213 Wh/mile.

think you meant 4.7 miles/KWh (the inverse)

the Ioniq is close to that (4.5ish)
 
math problem here. Those numbers (110 KWh and 517 mile range) give 213 Wh/mile.

think you meant 4.7 miles/KWh (the inverse)

the Ioniq is close to that (4.5ish)

I don't think it's too far-fetched. Lucid would need to be 15% more efficient per Wh, which is challenging but not impossible.

Based off the current 402-mile Model S (95 kWh of usable capacity), efficiency is roughly 236 Wh/m.

Assuming Lucid's battery has 105 usable kWh capacity, it would need efficiency of 203 Wh/m to return 517 miles.

I've driven our Raven S 25 miles roundtrip and averaged just under 200 Wh/m at 45-50 MPH. Lucid also claims to have integrated many components to improve efficiency. Their battery tech doesn't appear to be as far behind Tesla as everyone else is. Not surprising since Lucid has former Tesla talent on their payroll. Things will be interesting in 2021/2022. At least it's something to keep Tesla motivated and driven.
 
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Aerodynamics is the key to EVs. I was the leader of the UC Berkeley Solar Car team back in college, so I had to learn all about EV efficiency. (JB Straubel was on the Stanford Solar Car team.) If you make a car more aerodynamic, you get more range (especially highway range, which is more important) at the same manufacturing cost, or the same range at a lower manufacturing cost. Even better, improving the aero cuts the operating cost, and the customers of a car with lower operating cost can use the savings to buy more car, meaning you can actually charge more money.

In summary, better aero means the car is cheaper to make, gets better range, is cheaper to run, and can be sold for more money. A 500mi EV with a 120kWh battery is better than a 500mi EV with a 150kWh battery on every financial measure.

For home charging, once you get a battery above about 120kWh, you can't charge it overnight anymore. These packs with 150, 180, and 200kWh are just not ideal for regular people.

Both Tesla and Lucid are companies that get it. They are the most aggressive at pushing aero. Other companies trying to get range with huge batteries (e.g. Rivian, GM) are going to struggle.
 
Meh.

Important to note you'll damn well NEED 500 miles in a Lucid given the piss-poor state of non-Telsa L3 charging infrastructure (in the US at least). If I'm spending my money, a 400 mile Tesla plus Supercharger network beats a 500 mile "other car" without Supercharger network every time.

Not to mention Lucid still needing to prove they can deliver a product and operate sustainably.

Have you heard of Electrify America with their 350kW charging? Lucid has stated they will use EA's network. More than double the charge rate of Tesla Supercharger. Below is a map of their current 350kW chargers with more to come.

I don't understand why people are so against EV that is not Tesla. Lucid should be given credit for breaking the 500 mile barrier. Competition always creates better products for the consumers. Here are the reviews from Motor Trend, Car and Driver and Bloomberg which backs up Lucid's claim. They rode along with Lucid prototypes in real world driving conditions and with 70mph on highway. The test cars are "massed" up to reflect production weight.

2021 Lucid Air First Ride Review: 450 Miles on One Charge!
How Lucid’s New Electric Car Stacks Up Against Tesla and Porsche
Lucid Air EV Has a Projected 517 Miles of Range
 

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I don't think so. The prototypes that were able to eke out 517 miles in "independent testing" are not fully loaded production vehicles. As I've seen 110kWh quoted for the battery pack, I don't see 500+ miles being achievable on the EPA test cycle. That would come out to 4.7 miles/kWh in a rather heavy vehicle on a test cycle weighted towards "city' driving.
The uncorrected EPA test cycles were over 700 miles for both city and highway. Then they applied 70% correction.