537,xxx VINs Update

[iaaaaan]

I'm starting to see a few 537,xxx VINs show up in the order tracking spreadsheet (Teslike Model 3 Survey #1)

I'm curious if those who have received 537,xxx VINs have added your info on bloomberg's tracking site? (Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)
I havent seen any updated VINs past 530,1xx on their website.

 

[dandrewk]

I'm starting to see a few 537,xxx VINs show up in the order tracking spreadsheet (Teslike Model 3 Survey #1)

I'm curious if those who have received 537,xxx VINs have added your info on bloomberg's tracking site? (Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)
I havent seen any updated VINs past 530,1xx on their website.

There is now a 543,xxx in the spreadsheet. From the Netherlands.

 

[NeilT]

Wonder if these 530 or 540k are 2020 VIN's as some posts have been floating around noting being matched with 2020 VINs for model X and now 3's

 

[jonquiljo]

Wonder if these 530 or 540k are 2020 VIN's as some posts have been floating around noting being matched with 2020 VINs for model X and now 3's

Boy - another Marin Tesla waiter!

There is now a 543,xxx in the spreadsheet. From the Netherlands.

(to another person from Marin!) Is it possible that Tesla is using the same VIN structure Europe and Asia as in the US? If yes, this is confusing. Why is there not a big gap in VINs due to exported Model 3's? Only a few Europeans seem to post here.

I guess we have to see a lot of 530K's and 540K's from the US to know if US production is here or not.

 

[dandrewk]

No way to know. Worst case: the single 543 was from Europe. It could indicate the early quarter overseas run extends to 543, so we’d need to see numbers bigger than that to get our hopes up.

it’s kinda fun hunting for clues and speculating, but can’t wait to graduate out of this section.

 

[jonquiljo]

Yes, and the fact that over 42,000 Tesla orders have been placed since Oct 1 says that a large portion of the people making them are not at this web site. It's so hard to predict any real delivery dates in that the approx. 2000 orders a day that are for US and Canada may be piled up and up. The Fremont factory cannot possibly keep up with the orders.

It's clear (to me anyway) that the availability of Teslas (2-3 weeks turnaround) ratcheted up demand. Now that this has been smashed to pieces (6-10 weeks) and we are back to the long-term "I don't know" stage, will orders simply disintegrate as people walk away?

Why Tesla is pushing for demand growth (to please analysts) over actual deliveries (alienating consumers) in the US is baffling.

We hunt for clues and speculate because Tesla has no coherent or truthful information to give us - and the trade articles clearly are speculating based on less information than we share here.

 

[LOL@GAS]

Yes, and the fact that over 42,000 Tesla orders have been placed since Oct 1 says that a large portion of the people making them are not at this web site. It's so hard to predict any real delivery dates in that the approx. 2000 orders a day that are for US and Canada may be piled up and up. The Fremont factory cannot possibly keep up with the orders.

It's clear (to me anyway) that the availability of Teslas (2-3 weeks turnaround) ratcheted up demand. Now that this has been smashed to pieces (6-10 weeks) and we are back to the long-term "I don't know" stage, will orders simply disintegrate as people walk away?

Why Tesla is pushing for demand growth (to please analysts) over actual deliveries (alienating consumers) in the US is baffling.

We hunt for clues and speculate because Tesla has no coherent or truthful information to give us - and the trade articles clearly are speculating based on less information than we share here.

Once the gigafactory in China opens, that will lift a lot of weight off Fremont

 

[dillon]

Just saw VIN 543052 come active in the US... in Bellevue

 

[rtshefe]

Once the gigafactory in China opens, that will lift a lot of weight off Fremont

the China factory will be producing exclusively SR cars for the China market..from what I have read.
so I dont know how much stress thats taking off of the US factory considering the work load there isnt really changing at all.

 

[Needsdecaf]

Damn, a year ago I was excited that my VIN was 147XXX, and the "old timers" had VINs in the 50XXX to 80XXX range.

how times change!!!

 

[XLR82XS]

Wonder if these 530 or 540k are 2020 VIN's as some posts have been floating around noting being matched with 2020 VINs for model X and now 3's

Gotta check the 10th digit. If it's a 'L' - it's a 2020MY.

 

[dandrewk]

Just saw VIN 543052 come active in the US... in Bellevue

Where did you see this? I don’t see it in the spreadsheet.

 

[jonquiljo]

the China factory will be producing exclusively SR cars for the China market..from what I have read.
so I dont know how much stress thats taking off of the US factory considering the work load there isnt really changing at all.

Not much stress at all. Again it is one for the analysts saying that Tesla has more capacity. They spent $2B on the factory. Perhaps it will get Tesla to stop the games of long durations of Fremont delivering everywhere but the US?

 

[dillon]

Where did you see this? I don’t see it in the spreadsheet.

Tezz.la

 

[Solmors]

Just saw VIN 543052 come active in the US... in Bellevue

I'll swing by the Bellevue Tesla lot on Friday after work and take some pictures of the lot. When I was there ~10 days ago it was looking pretty sparse.

 

[dandrewk]

Tezz.la

Don't see it now. Wow, that got snapped up in a hurry, as it should!

 

[dillon]

Don't see it now. Wow, that got snapped up in a hurry, as it should!

Yep, gone

 

[wired-less]

Can confirm at lest for my 357168 VIN that it is a 2020, got my sales order from Tesla and it’s listing the model year as 2020

 

[dandrewk]

Am seeing several more 535xxx vins on spreadsheet. USA based. Looks promising, but still may be from surrendered deposits.

 

[Luso7]

Can confirm at lest for my 357168 VIN that it is a 2020, got my sales order from Tesla and it’s listing the model year as 2020

What exactly is the sales order? The only documents I see available are

Order agreement
Lemon law disclosure

and I also have a vin on my account. But I don’t see a sales order