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$561.8 million in revenue.. WTF???

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by CapitalistOppressor, May 8, 2013.

  1. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Did anyone come in with a revenue number this high? And if so how? My models were predicting ~$518m with credit revenue this high, with 4,750 sales. That includes a slightly higher revenue number for their drivetrain business. 150 sales does not get me $45m in revenue.

    Deducting credits and their development revenue, I get per car average revenue of over $100k.

    Elon mentioned (millions) in apparel revenue. Do we think it credible that there could be $30m+ in merchandise revenue from the stores?

    Any other suggestions?
     
  2. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    As sited in the report there were also $7mill in sales to Merc for power trains and an undisclosed $ in sales to Toyota for power train.
     
  3. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    It sure could be millions from merchandise, have you bought one of their $30 hats yet? I have, and given several to friends

    Also they sell accessories on the a tesla online store, I myself have bought the trunk, frunk all weather mats, several adapters for the UMC, an extra J-772 adapter, paid for 4 years of prepaid maintenance etc. I'm waiting for the all weather interior mats to be availble... More money more money more money :) to Tesla

    Shop Tesla Gear Model S
     
  4. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    $30 million is not possible in shirts. That's a little over $1 million per store for the quarter or $333,000 per month. Let's say each shirt averages $50 then you get 222 shirts per day, at EACH location. Nope. It's not possible.
     
  5. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    jeeezzz- mitch alone accounts for a good hunk of it! :)-
    you should have sent those figures into Cappy before the call :)
     
  6. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Lol, too funny.
     
  7. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    This could easily generate $30 million in sales.
     
  8. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Especially if you include shipping costs.
     
  9. dgmanny

    dgmanny Member

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    They can't book the money they collect for prepaid o&m as current quarter revenue. They can book the cash but revenue will be booked over the period of the agreement.
     
  10. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Yes I know, but it's still $1,900 of revenue over the next 16 quarters (4 years), so a little over $100/quarter can be booked. Mo money mo money mo money :)

    They have to be making bank on those $30 hats though :) and I imagine there are good margins on most of the accessories as well.
     
  11. Morristhecat

    Morristhecat Member

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    Revenue from carbon tax credit sales could be easily this much.
     
  12. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Thats the development income I cited.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's my thought. $1m in revenue from merchandise is a decent number for a store trying to be a retail operation.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The online store is a possibility. The retail operation can only be a fraction of that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    See, thats the secret to this thread. Tesla cited $68m in ZEV credits. Never mentioned GHG or CAFE credits at all. Were they sneaky about that or just playing fast and loose with the language?

    My first guess is sneaky. Everything they mentioned vis a vis ZEV credits is only valid for actual California ZEV credits, as issued by CARB. I think they completely papered over the GHG and CAFE revenue.
     
  13. akula

    akula Member

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    I think it's very much this. There is no way it can be anything else, t-shirts don't do it for me. (although they are nice and I have a few) :)
     
  14. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Quick model to illustrate the problem -

    1,470 60kWh sales @ $80,000 = $117.6m
    1,715 85kWh sales @ $90,000 = $154.4m
    1,715 P85 sales @ $100,000 = $171.5m

    total
    4,900 = $443.5m

    ZEV Credits = $68m
    Development Cash = $7m

    Total = $518.5m

    Actual = $562m

    Missing = $43.5m??? From web merchandise and retail sales? We are talking like $8,900/car worth of revenue.

    If CAFE prices equal GHG prices, then going off the model in the OP that would be worth ~$7,200/car. Totally speculative though, and is based only on EPA guidance of $23/Mg of CO2 with a multiplier of 2. Current CO2 price in Europe is ~$4/Mg, but thats because of a collapse. It's been as high as $40/Mg before the financial crisis, with many predicting $100+/Mg.

    Regardless, its the only (potentially) missing line item which is at the correct scale (that I see anyways).
     
  15. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Where is the income from the RAV4EV drive trains and packs they are selling to Toyota? I don't see it above.
    Where is the income from the tesla online store for accessories?
    Where is 1/16 income from selling 4 year service plans? They pushed pretty hard to get us to buy those..

    I think your missing a bunch of income.
     
  16. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    Are you sure about your average pricing per model? I think they're low, but not by much, especially when you think about 2013 pricing. If you bump your avg up about $2500 or so (more on the higher end models, less on the 60's), I think you'll easily arrive where you need to be.
     
  17. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    There might also be a month or two worth of 'finalized' orders. That could easily add up to $8M-$16M.
     
  18. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    your still low on dev money. I am sure it said $7mill for Merc. It didnt disclose how much they got off of Toyota.
     
  19. spatterso911

    spatterso911 MSP#7577 **--** MX#1891

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    Don't count the HPWC units as part of the vehicle income either. There could also be a million in income from those sales too.
     
  20. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    #20 SteveG3, May 8, 2013
    Last edited: May 8, 2013
    CapO, I think I see a part of the gap. While your sales mix lines up with what Elon said today, Q1 revenue would not have had this mix because I believe 60 kwh were not delivered at all for many weeks in quarter, and not batched very much for the rest. I did a quick search without much success as to 60 kwh deliveries in Q1, but I suspect this discrepancy is about $15 million of the mystery money (1000 of mix shifted to 85s and P85s)

    Additionally, I've heard management at times talk about developmental service revenue broken out separately from powertrain sales in regards to work with Daimler and Toyota. On this point, while not a Tesla document, Seeking Alpha article below says power train sales averaged $12 million the prior two quarters.

    Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? - Seeking Alpha
     

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