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5K/week pushed back to Q2
- Thread starter Nuclear Fusion
- Start date
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- Model 3
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Ok, here goes plans for EU deliveries in Late 2018 out of windowIf no more delays ( joke?) people who reserved online on 31th will see their TM3 in January 2019....
I'm not giving up just yet.
It depends on the geographical distribution. Why not phase in shipments to Europe at the beginning of Q3/2018? Gives them a chance to distribute the cars evenly over the world, less supercharger conjestion in the US, more potential tax credits etc.
OK probably not.
I doubt they ll be able to reach 5k/week any time in the near future. They just don't have enough people to actually make that many cars... If they want to go from 25k cars/qtr to 20k Model 3's alone in a month, they ll need a lot more workers regardless of efficiency/automation. There's no way to hire that many skilled car builders in such a short time.
Tesla has had the workforce hired for sometime now to make 5,000 cars a week. This is why they are "burning" through cash and why Wall Street is nervous. They also have the sales force, suppliers lined up and distribution channels set up in order to deliver this number of cars. What we are seeing is all part of typical exponential growth in manufacturing/logistics. 2 steps forward/1 step back. They spent a lot of time focusing and trying to rush as many cars in 2017 as possible to local California owners. Now that the 2017 target is behind them, they will start rolling out things more nationally as it makes more sense for logistics(notice all the East Coast emails going out today). In addition they will continue to fix the "bugs" quicker than they did with the S/X since the M3 was "designed to manufacture easily". Remember there are still very few options and when they get rolling the ramp up will go fast.
If they hit their current updated targets, they will still deliver 150,000 model 3's in the 2nd half of 2018. Think about that for a second. That is pretty much as many cars as they delivered in all of 2016 and 2017 together. That doesn't count a number of around 18-20 K that they will deliver in Q1 2018 and probably around 30-40k in Q2 2018.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
The problem with this analogy is that there were other phones available at the time. Tesla still is really the only game in town. It is true that more cars are coming but until we see some movement on charging infrastructure from other manufacturers the other cars are basically local only. I am not too worried about competition right now.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I hear what you are saying, but Tesla employs over 330K people that does not include a marketing dept at all. Isn't that enough?
Garlan Garner
Banned
You should watch the videos from the Model 3 Road Trip stops. I talked to those guys first hand, and in every video I've seen they say the same thing. They think the Model 3 is so good, it will cannibalize Model S sales. Even given the software bugs that are clearly annoying, they're still very positive about the car.
This is literally what Apple did early on. iPhones were very hard to come by, and people waited months to get theirs. They also had purchase limits when they went on sale for the first several years of availability.
And they still have massive delays on new products. The AirPods were delayed for months before manufacturing even started, because of problems in the factories. And when they did start coming out, quantities were severely limited. This is life of making complex products, I'm afraid.
Yeah, I get the idea that it's novel and exciting and has a bunch of positives, but I also see the growing list of issues, some of which are permanent and some might get corrected couple of years down the road. Thing is, the price of the car will likely be a double of my past purchases, which for the most part were very adequate functionally, so the idea of spending twice as much and getting issues I didn't have in the past ... takes some getting used to.
What I've heard so far, permanent issues:
- back windows roll down only half way
- steering wheel not heated
- back seats are uncomfortable being too low, so your knees are sticking up
- ride feels hard/bumpy if you're in the back
- back window "too high" and hard to look through, so using camera view is preferred, however, camera view is bad especially in the dark or rain/snow to the point of being unusable
- trunk security insufficient: if back door window is broken, trunk can be easily accessed from inside the car (I believe at least some cars have this implemented better)
- some "vampire drain" or battery heating going on, did not read up on this, concern is if you leave your car in the airport for a few weeks it might not start and get you home when you come back, which is not a concern for ICE.
- very loud "getting ready" sounds(clicking/clunking) when you approach the car (might be able to reduce when this happens but likely not the loudness)
- honestly, not very impressive outside trim on some cars, like the stripe in the middle of the doors not being aligned by 0.5 inch or so, which I believe Tesla considers within their margin of error and not needing a fix
"Temporary":
- screen glitches that make maps unusable (for the road trip guy, You You, even Tesla technician visit did not fix this)
- other glitches with lost sound etc. that require "hard reboots"
- AP not to be trusted on 1. Combinations of hills/curves 2. Roads with minimal amount of snow 3. Any construction zone (doesn't see cones and even barrier in the lane - there's a crash video). This puts a fat question mark on the $5K cost/benefit
- other smaller issues with clicking on top of your audio etc
- I think I forgot a bunch of other things
I still feel that there will be more positives to outweight the above. It's just...the perfection doesn't exist. Oh well
Garlan Garner
Banned
I think you are being sarcastic......as they averaged 500 Model 3's per week in December instead of the forecasted 5000 per week.
Garlan Garner
Banned
WOW....thanks for writing your forum suicide note. I would be amazed if you are still posting past tomorrow. LOL Just kidding.
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T34ME
Active Member
The front end of the car looks like an Edsel - sucking a lemon! and Motor Trend informally compared the Julia to a model 3 and Julia did not measure up.
T34ME
Active Member
Oh what's a hundred thousand here or there if it clarifies where you are really coming from.