600.000 model 3 orders now ?

[Ovulation]

A German local newspaper claims that Elon told in a press conference (11.08.2016 the Grohmann acquiring) that they have now 600.000 orders for the model 3 ^^

Tesla kauft Grohmann Engineering in Prüm - Eifel - Zeitung
Rund 400.000 verbindliche Fahrzeugbestellungen lägen dem Unternehmen schon vor, heißt es. Der Tesla-Chef Musk sprach am 08.11.2016 in Prüm sogar von 600.000 Fahrzeugen.

 

[JeffK]

No, the article is referring to production capability.

The official number is still 373,000

The relevant sentence in the article is:
"Rund 400.000 verbindliche Fahrzeugbestellungen lägen dem Unternehmen schon vor, heißt es."

I'm don't read German, but I'm fluent in Google Translate.

 

[Jason Bourne]

I wonder why Tesla has not updated their official reservation number in such a long time. They obviously know the number, but there's apparently a good reason that they're not disclosing it.

Maybe it's actually going down. Maybe a significant number of reservation holders bought an S as Tesla was pushing to increase delivery numbers for the end of quarter, combined with people changing their mind and/or jumping to a Bolt.

 

[SageBrush]

I think this is the relevant translated portion

After the launch of its new Model 3, the US company plans to increase production from 50,000 to 500,000 vehicles within two years.Around 400,000 binding vehicle orders were already submitted to the company.The Tesla boss Musk spoke yesterday in Prüm even of 600,000 vehicles. One million vehicles are planned for 2020.

Ambiguous, but I think JeffK is right that the 600k refers to production capacity.

 

[SageBrush]

I wonder why Tesla has not updated their official reservation number in such a long time. They obviously know the number, but there's apparently a good reason that they're not disclosing it.

Maybe it's actually going down. Maybe a significant number of reservation holders bought an S as Tesla was pushing to increase delivery numbers for the end of quarter, combined with people changing their mind and/or jumping to a Bolt.

Too many maybes

 

[DoctorZ]

......or 'taking delivery' on their $1K deposit to shop for the holidays.

 

[SureValla]

I wonder why Tesla has not updated their official reservation number in such a long time. They obviously know the number, but there's apparently a good reason that they're not disclosing it.

Maybe it's actually going down. Maybe a significant number of reservation holders bought an S as Tesla was pushing to increase delivery numbers for the end of quarter, combined with people changing their mind and/or jumping to a Bolt.

I also think this is more than likely but be careful most folks around here won't appreciate the negative suggestions...

I see a few scenarios and almost all of them announcing the number is negative for Tesla

1) Number went down - reaction: "oh no people don't want electric cars after all sell your stock!"
2) Number stayed the same - reaction: "only 400k people want this car, there is no demand for cars beyond the first year of production, sell your stock!"
3) Number went up small/moderate amount - "that's it? guess it wasn't worth the hype... sell your stock"
4) Number went up a large amount - "Tesla doesn't have enough money to do this, they will disappoint a lot of people. Sell your stock"

I'm not saying I agree with all 4 sentiments just my feeling at what the market is likely to say as its really easy to write a negative article on Tesla. Thus they don't want to fan any flames by announcing a number that as Elon says doesn't really matter or indicate anything.

 

[AB4EJ]

I also think this is more than likely but be careful most folks around here won't appreciate the negative suggestions...

I see a few scenarios and almost all of them announcing the number is negative for Tesla

1) Number went down - reaction: "oh no people don't want electric cars after all sell your stock!"
2) Number stayed the same - reaction: "only 400k people want this car, there is no demand for cars beyond the first year of production, sell your stock!"
3) Number went up small/moderate amount - "that's it? guess it wasn't worth the hype... sell your stock"
4) Number went up a large amount - "Tesla doesn't have enough money to do this, they will disappoint a lot of people. Sell your stock"

I'm not saying I agree with all 4 sentiments just my feeling at what the market is likely to say as its really easy to write a negative article on Tesla. Thus they don't want to fan any flames by announcing a number that as Elon says doesn't really matter or indicate anything.

Or how about: "Bob Lutz says that Faraday Future is the way to go! Sell your stock!"

 

[Ovulation]

No, the article is referring to production capability.

no

Das US-amerikanische Unternehmen plant nach dem Start seines neuen „Model 3“ die Produktion von 50.000 auf 500.000 Fahrzeuge innerhalb zwei Jahr steigern zu können. Rund 400.000 verbindliche Fahrzeugbestellungen lägen dem Unternehmen schon vor, heißt es. Der Tesla-Chef Musk sprach am 08.11.2016 in Prüm sogar von 600.000 Fahrzeugen. Eine Millionen Fahrzeuge sind für 2020 geplant. Musk favorisiert bei dieser Planung die Roboter-Technik. Maschinen sollen Maschinen bauen, sagte er. Den Produktionsausbau soll der ehemalige Audi-Manager Peter Hochholdiger organisieren. Ihn hat Musk auch bereits engagiert.

"On 8 November 2016, the Tesla CEO Musk spoke in Prüm, even mentioning 600.000 vehicles." [reserved], seeing how this sentence relates back to the previous one which mentions around 400.000 known reservations. However, the article isn't really well informed since they speak of "verbindliche Fahrzeugbestellungen" which would mean binding reservations (=orders) which we know they're not. But hey, on the Model 3 concept sketch thank you note I recieved it said "Thank you for ordering a Model 3" so we all know that Elon can be pretty sloppy with his used of "order" v.s. "reservation".

 

[lklundin]

no

However, the article displays a lack of understanding regarding the Model 3 reservations, since they refer to these reservations as 'verbindliche' (literally 'binding') which they are not, they are refundable.

Also, right after mentioning the 600k number (of vehicles not vehicle-reservations) comes a 1000k number which quite clearly is some kind of production number.

So the quality of this source is not that high, specifically with regard to the Model 3 reservations.

 

[dsvick]

I see a few scenarios and almost all of them announcing the number is negative for Tesla

1) Number went down - reaction: "oh no people don't want electric cars after all sell your stock!"
2) Number stayed the same - reaction: "only 400k people want this car, there is no demand for cars beyond the first year of production, sell your stock!"
3) Number went up small/moderate amount - "that's it? guess it wasn't worth the hype... sell your stock"
4) Number went up a large amount - "Tesla doesn't have enough money to do this, they will disappoint a lot of people. Sell your stock"

I agree, there is no compelling reason for them to release the numbers at this point. I doubt they've gone down, at least not by much, but if they have or if they remain flat the media will say people are having second thoughts or that the demand isn't there. Any large increase and they'll say that they'll never produce them all.

 

[Chopr147]

Sure I can see the number having gone down a bit but not a large %. Many like me have decided on buying an S but kept the model 3 reservation if only to see where this car goes. If it's a huge hit and Motor Trend calls it the best car ever, or it breaks the CR index
I still want my reservation. I plan on getting the 3 anyway but delaying my delivery now.

 

[Booga]

Based on some corporate filings...

tsla-10q_20160930.htm
Page 4
Customer deposits, under liabilities:
690,364 (thousands)

They had $690 million in customer deposits as of September 30th, 2016. The most comparable figure, pre-Model 3 announcements, is $283 million as of December 31st, 2015. (The March filing could not be used, because I'm not sure if it already includes some Model 3 reservations or if those hit the following statement.)

So there has been a gain of about $400 million during this time in deposits, which isn't far off from the original reservation count of 373,000. In addition, given the increase in sales (from $1.2 Billion per quarter in Q4 2015 to $2.3 Billion Q3 2016), there is likely some increase just due to increased deposits from customers buying the Model S or the Model X. The challenging part is that inventory sales are becoming a larger percentage of their transactions versus custom orders and as far as I know, we don't know that percentage.

Keeping it simple, if we assume that the original figure of $283 million had grown at the same pace as sales, deposits for the S/X were anywhere from $283 million to $548 million by the end of Q3 2016. (I assume no change in the percentage of customers that place deposits down for simplicity)

This means that Model 3 reservations are anywhere between 142,000 and 407,000. I think it's on the higher end, but not by too much more than the initial announcement. I wouldn't be surprised if we get more reservations after the final reveal (with option pricing, etc.) and that some were lost as they bought a Model S instead. Based on my assessment, these reservations are largely held by people excited by the technology. Most others who are less interested will wait for cars to be available at a dealership with a smaller wait time. At the same time, there could be some people who defer their reservations and so it's not shooting up as fast as I had personally expected.

 

[Booga]

Sure I can see the number having gone down a bit but not a large %. Many like me have decided on buying an S but kept the model 3 reservation if only to see where this car goes. If it's a huge hit and Motor Trend calls it the best car ever, or it breaks the CR index
I still want my reservation. I plan on getting the 3 anyway but delaying my delivery now.

I'm also likely to delay delivery, though mostly because I'm weary of the quality of an initial release based on what early Model S/X users experienced. I think the Model 3, a year or two after release, is going to be much more matured. The tradeoff will be the reduced/eliminated tax credit though.

 

[Jayc]

What are the chances that someone who ordered a Model 3 will abandon Tesla altogether and get an EV from a competitor? At the moment, only a very insignificant probability I would say - and that also answers the question whether Tesla is worried about M3 pre-order rate.

As long as net orders (M3 + MS + MX) is on the upward trend and surpassing predictions, Tesla has every reason to be happy.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder why Tesla has not updated their official reservation number in such a long time. They obviously know the number, but there's apparently a good reason that they're not disclosing it.

That questioned was asked of Musk and answered.

Paraphrased: The number is of no importance beyond showing that there is significant demand for an affordable EV. The Model 3 is sold out for its first year of production. We are in fact anti-selling the Model 3.

 

[Booga]

What are the chances that someone who ordered a Model 3 will abandon Tesla altogether and get an EV from a competitor? At the moment, only a very insignificant probability I would say - and that also answers the question whether Tesla is worried about M3 pre-order rate.

As long as net orders (M3 + MS + MX) is on the upward trend and surpassing predictions, Tesla has every reason to be happy.

If they were comparable in more ways, I would be open to a competitor, but when it comes to the autopilot technology, the Chevy Bolt isn't even close, and so I won't consider it.

 

[Booga]

That questioned was asked of Musk and answered.

Paraphrased: The number is of no importance beyond showing that there is significant demand for an affordable EV. The Model 3 is sold out for its first year of production. We are in fact anti-selling the Model 3.

It's funny though. If the number were a lot higher, maybe 700,000, he would be touting it as a reason to possibly raise more capital.

 

[Topher]

It is possible that Tesla has saturated the market for spending $1,000 to pre-order an electric car you won't see for 2 years. I can't find a way to make that seem a bad thing. Since no other car can do anything like that, to say nothing of to the tune of 400,000 such orders, I am unable to imagine a scenario where it doesn't sell like hotcakes when actually available today(ish).

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

It's funny though. If the number were a lot higher, maybe 700,000, he would be touting it as a reason to possibly raise more capital.

Raising capital comes with inherent liabilities, no reason to do it if you don't HAVE to. Tesla is currently bringing the 3 into production as fast as it can, and at the same time ramping up the production capability as fast as it can. It doesn't NEED money, it needs time. (and while time may be money; money most certainly isn't time). What would Tesla do with more capital if it had it?

Thank you kindly.