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600.000 model 3 orders now ?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Ovulation, Nov 16, 2016.

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  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    I considered this but as reservations go further out the wait time lengthens and the likelihood of cancellations increases.

    Tesla has to balance the good news of reservations with the relatively higher weighted future negative press.
     
  2. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

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    I don't think you are approaching the math correctly. The 12/31/15 number of $283 million contains substantially all of the X reservation money, including probably close to 2800 Sigs (maybe 3,000 total, less 206 delivered in 2015) that were reserved at 40,000 a pop. Sigs alone are $112 million off the $283 million number.

    Then consider all the X reservations from past years. There were big reports of reservations but let's be super conservative and say just 12,000 existed at 2015 year end (15,000 total minus 3000 Sigs) at $5k a pop. That's another 60 million out of the $283 million number. I'd say most of the backlog (say 80%?) was completed by 9/30/16. All those older X deliveries didn't increase the $283 figure - they were already factored in. 48 million + 112 million = $160 million to be subtracted from the $283 figure due to old X reservations clearing out. Of course, these get replaced with some level of new X orders but it's pretty hard to quantify.

    Same with S movements. I don't think you can just look at sales and assume deposits went up on account of S. S production in 15Q4 was 13,530, then 12,851 in 16Q1, 12,145 in 16Q2 and 14,735 in 16Q3. So, it's not as if there was massive production/deposit increases here, especially since they sought to deliver every car possible at end of Q3. Orders are rising, but they are also being fulfilled at a faster rate, which moves the deposit off the books.

    One thing we know is that typical cars in transit at end of quarter has increased from 15Q4, from about 3k to 5k. So, 2k additional deposits * 2500 = 5 million, basically nothing.

    690 million - 283 million = 407 million. Conservatively add back 160 million from old X res clearing the books (remember, even order cancellations after 12/31/15 would reduce the deposits figure) = 567 million. Lets say 10,000 people (seems high) have new X $2500 deposits in but no car as of 9/30/16: subtract 25 million = 542 million. There's no good data to suggest there's more people waiting on S with deposits in, but let's assume another 10,000 increase just for fun. Subtract another 25 million = 517 million from Model 3.

    TL;DR: 517,000 Model 3 deposits as of 9/30/16 seems like a conservative estimate.
     
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  3. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    With the exception that we know for a fact the reservations had decreased at one point. The official number of 373,000 was given again recently .... if it was much high they'd announce it. It was was lower and expected to rise then they'd keep it under wraps.
     
  4. Ovulation

    Ovulation Member

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    Did they ??? I don't think so
     
  5. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    It's on seeking alpha and in announcements made by both Elon and JB. At one point they were nearly at 400,000 and then the number magically became 373,000 and stayed there officially for months. You can listen to the financial calls too.
     
  6. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    Tesla has to manage expectations.

    If they say "we have more reservations than we can fill in a year," investors are quite rightly going to discount the reservations that cannot be filled in a kinda/sorta timely manner, so no substantial upside other than bragging rights.

    OTOH, if only 1/3rd of those late fill reservation cancel it is still going to be negative news that the short positions will scream about any chance they get.

    Information is asymmetric. So I don't know if Tesla has more than ~ 400k reservations but I can certainly understand them keeping it low key if they do. Good news gets dripped out by companies when the timing is best.
     
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  7. Ovulation

    Ovulation Member

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    I listen to the conference calls .... and if I remember correctly they don't really comment on that subject.

    btw. The whole under 400.000 thing was IMO only a stunt by the shorts (SA^^) Elon put out some vague numbers and the shorts, of course, run with it
     
  8. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

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    Seeking Alpha is a horrific source for TSLA news, just so you know. The 373k is the official number since right after the unveiling. They have declined to update it. The 400k was never an official number.

    If you listened to the Q3 ER call, you know that your reasoning above re: "if it was higher they'd tell us" is probably not right. They are anti-selling the Model 3 - they try to get people into an S/X when they get questions about the 3. Elon said there's no point in pushing orders of the 3 right now since 12 months of production are already sold out. They are downplaying the Model 3 at this point to every extent possible to sell available cars now. Publishing higher reservations (i) discourages future 3 reservations as the waiting list looks impossibly long and (ii) gives competitors valuable inside information. There's plenty of reasons to keep bigger numbers under wraps.
     
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  9. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Tesla's J.B. Straubel Says Jeju Island's Carbon-Free Future Sets Example, Confirms 400,000 Model 3 Pre-Orders
     
  10. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

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    That's not proof of anything - in fact, it's a datapoint suggesting preorders are up, not down.

    JB gave a subsequent unofficial update of 400k. No reason to think it's false, so there's some data suggesting reservations didn't stop at 373k. After that, when asked, Elon said they are going to stick with the last officially disclosed number (373k) and refuse to comment on it further, as a matter of policy.

    All we know is that overall deposits have gone up every quarter in 2016, net of losing all those old Model X deposits as I previously mentioned. All data points we have point toward higher deposits, not lower. As I said, there's no benefit to showing a higher number.
     
  11. harry

    harry Member

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    Don't forget -- those of us with more than 2 Model 3 reservations were cut back to that number. That's when the ~400K number went to 373K.
     
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  12. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

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    Once again, the subsequent 373k number given after JB informally mentioned 400k in a speech did not reflect actual reservation numbers at that time. Elon specifically said they were going to stick with the original official 373k number and no longer update it as a matter of policy. For all we know the real number was 450k when he said that.

    Even without Elon's specific description of the 373k number and its reasoning-which is 100% dispositive here, there's no room to reasonably argue otherwise-do you really think the cutting of excess reservations coincidentally reduced the actual number of reservations back to exactly 373k, the official tally?
     
  13. eisbock

    eisbock Member

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    Accelerate the Model 3 launch?

    There's a point where you need a certain amount of time to accomplish a task, but money can most certainly be used to make things move faster, regardless of whether it makes sense from a financial standpoint for what you'd gain.
     
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  14. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    373,000 is the official number. Speculating up or down is just speculation...
     
  15. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

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    Exactly how? They can't make a new factory in that time. They can't hurry on their suppliers. They can't train new employees faster with money.

    "Adding more people to a late software project makes it later." -_the mythical man-month_

    Thank you kindly.
     
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  16. Trips

    Trips "Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"

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    This is bad math as some of the deposits were $40,000 for the X that have be cleared up.

    There is no upside to releasing the number and that is why they have paid $$$ to individuals that figured it out and did not release it to the public.

    Electrek did a nice article a couple weeks ago looking at the balance sheets. https://electrek.co/2016/10/27/tesla-model-3-700-million-customer-deposits/
     
  17. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    Fallacy.
     
  18. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Banned

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    Anti-selling? What does that mean?
     
  19. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Discouraging new Model 3 reservations by warning that the first year's production is already sold out and by steering people interested in getting a Tesla to a low-end Model S/X instead.
     
  20. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Well-Known Member

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    It's funny though. There's no evidence of any kind that that's what he would do.
     
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