60D now, or Model 3 later? Help!

[ByranS]

I was planning to make my decision in June after the 3 reveal. But now, well.... you know.

Any advice from the community?

I am essentially choosing between a loaded 3 vs a base 60D with subzero.

Test drove an S this week. LOVED every second of it.
I don't need range at all.
I was shockingly unimpressed with the premium upgrade package when I test drove. Raised a lot of questions about how the 3 interior will feel with or without whatever upgrades it has.

Anyway... I honestly have no idea what to do.

 

[Nosken]

Get the Model S, since it will be awhile to get the 3, depending where you are in the que.
get an inventory or CPO car and get lifetime Supercharging.
https://ev-cpo.com/

 

[ByranS]

Get the Model S, since it will be awhile to get the 3, depending where you are in the que.
get an inventory or CPO car and get lifetime Supercharging.
https://ev-cpo.com/

I like your definitiveness. I've been studying that site recently. I can walk away with a great deal factoring in the tax credit . It'll still probably be more than I would have paid for a 3. I was a first day reservation but I live in Ohio. My Tesla store guys tell me my chance of a tax credit with the 3 are slim to none.
But I assume the build quality and overall feel will be better with the S. Key word being 'assume'.

 

[mbhforum]

A lot of us here are converted M3 reservation holders who changed their minds and went for an S. In my case, I was a day 1 M3 reservation holder in NY, so my situation was similar to yours. Ultimately, as the prices dropped for the S, I realized a loaded M3 will end up being around 50k and it still would be a small sedan for a family of 4. We never used my BMW 328xi for that reason and I felt by getting another similar sized car, I am just am carrying over that inconvienence and for 50k, it wasn't worth it for me. I ended up with a 2015 MS CPO for 72k and am very happy with the spacious interior and I will now not have to sweat out tax rebates or new model issues. To me, interior space really was the most important decision when selecting the S vs 3.

You have to decide what features are the most important to you, range, price, interior space, etc. I was going to go for a base 60 with subzero like you, but wanted some more options for a little cheaper of a price of a CPO, I am glad I did as I really like the pano roof, power liftgate and nicer trim. I hope you consider AP on any car you get as it's easily the best feature.

 

[ByranS]

A lot of us here are converted M3 reservation holders who changed their minds and went for an S. In my case, I was a day 1 M3 reservation holder in NY, so my situation was similar to yours. Ultimately, as the prices dropped for the S, I realized a loaded M3 will end up being around 50k and it still would be a small sedan for a family of 4. We never used my BMW 328xi for that reason and I felt by getting another similar sized car, I am just am carrying over that inconvienence and for 50k, it wasn't worth it for me. I ended up with a 2015 MS CPO for 72k and am very happy with the spacious interior and I will now not have to sweat out tax rebates or new model issues. To me, interior space really was the most important decision when selecting the S vs 3.

You have to decide what features are the most important to you, range, price, interior space, etc. I was going to go for a base 60 with subzero like you, but wanted some more options for a little cheaper of a price of a CPO, I am glad I did as I really like the pano roof, power liftgate and nicer trim. I hope you consider AP on any car you get as it's easily the best feature.

Great advice. I'm holding on the AP software for now. AP2 isn't amazing and the lower price eases the shock value for my wife. I won't mind upgrading in 8-12 months (even with the 1000k penalty) once AP2 is more refined. I also think it'll be cool to have a year old car that suddenly feels new again.

There's still a part of me that fears that some AMAZING upgrade/feature is about to be announced and I'd hate to regret my decision. I know this is inevitable with Tesla given how quickly they innovate. It just feels like a change is particularly eminent right now. Of course I could be completely wrong.

 

[jimmyz80]

I was in the same boat. We have a 3 reservation for my wife, and I was planning on selling my Roadster and also getting a 3 staggered from her by a year or two. For the following reasons I went ahead and ordered an S60D two weeks ago for myself:
-Drove a few loaners and it really grew on me
-Thought it might be nice to have a larger car around, instead of two smaller ones
-Wasn't particularly hot on owning two early-year Model 3s, since there will inevitably be complications and rapid product evolution

Granted my S60D optioned out will cost almost what two Model 3s would cost, so it wasn't an easy decision. But I'm impulsive.

 

[mbhforum]

Great advice. I'm holding on the AP software for now. AP2 isn't amazing and the lower price eases the shock value for my wife. I won't mind upgrading in 8-12 months (even with the 1000k penalty) once AP2 is more refined. I also think it'll be cool to have a year old car that suddenly feels new again.

There's still a part of me that fears that some AMAZING upgrade/feature is about to be announced and I'd hate to regret my decision. I know this is inevitable with Tesla given how quickly they innovate. It just feels like a change is particularly eminent right now. Of course I could be completely wrong.

Yes, if you go new vs CPO, it's not a terrible idea to see how AP2 pans out. I am sure glad I went with CPO with AP 1.0 now. I am sure in 2 years I will be kicking myself, but nothing is stopping me from trading up. You are correct, there is always something new on the horizon, and if you worry about that, you'll never pull the trigger. I shocked myself buying a CPO as I almost always buy the latest and greatest and NEW. The price difference was only 3k when you factored in the tax credit, but I got better range, more options and didn't have to worry about higher monthly payments since the tax credit wouldn't be factored in.

 

[davidc18]

Get the car now and enjoy.

 

[Troy]

My Tesla store guys tell me my chance of a tax credit with the 3 are slim to none.
But I assume the build quality and overall feel will be better with the S. Key word being 'assume'.

The store employees are wrong. They know less than a random forum member. The phase out calendar starts when Tesla hits 200,000 sales in the USA. Global sales are irrelevant. The rules are explained on the EPA website here. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.

Ask them how many cars Tesla sold in the USA in 2014 and 2015 and whether or not Tesla publishes USA sales numbers. They will tell you that Tesla does not publish this data and that the numbers are unknown. The answer is Tesla sold 16,689 cars in the USA in 2014 and 25,202 cars in 2015. These numbers were published by Tesla here in the table at the bottom of page 1. Many people have overlooked this data including people who follow Tesla closely because Tesla mentioned those in an unrelated context to compare their USA sales to BMW etc. I have processed all the data Tesla has published and other institutions have published. You can find these on THIS page.

As of today. Tesla's USA sales count is 118,667 units. They are expected to hit 200,000 sales in late December this year or early January in 2018. According to the rules, full credits will continue until the end of the following quarter they hit 200K. For example, if they hit 200K in Dec, that means full credits will continue until 31st March 2018 and then it will drop to $3750 for 2 more quarters. Therefore there is 100% chance that you will get at least $3750. I would say there is more than 50% chance, you will get the full credits. There are only 2 scenarios to consider.

Pessimistic Scenario (If Tesla hits 200K USA sales in Q4 2017)
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019

Optimistic Scenario (If Tesla hits 200K USA sales in Q1 2018)
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open THIS page and scroll all the way to the right. If you are a Model 3 reservation holder, check out the Model 3 Delivery Estimator. It integrates this information to the output based on your delivery estimate. It displays both the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios.

 

[Troy]

Before you make a decision, let me show you some numbers I would expect to see:

Model S 60:

• $68,000 before options
• 210 miles EPA rated range
• 5.5s 0-60mph
• Comes with older 18650 cells. Won't support Supercharger V3

Model 3 75D

• $47,000 before options
• 304 miles EPA rated range (see details here)
• 5.0s 0-60mph
• Comes with newer 2170 cells. Will support Supercharger V3
• 18% faster supercharging compared to Model S 75D because of higher efficiency. I'm not adding Supercharger V3. That will be an additional speed increase on top of the 18%.
• 18% cheaper to charge than the Model S because of higher efficiency
• Same cabin space as the Model S

 

[Sonny Daze]

Can you order the S and just delay delivery for several months? Once more info about the 3 comes out and you decide you'd prefer that, you would probably have to eat the deposit on the S (I doubt they would let you transfer to 3 purchase).

 

[davinci2017]

If you are willing to wait like upto 2 years, then yeah take a chance and wait. Unless the demand for the top of the line reduces and he is willing to fill in newer orders for the top of lines first, in which case you may get it a lot sooner. It really depends on how far Elon wants to push the plan of selling the most expensive models first before reaching the base model.

If you need a car now, get the 60 or 60D, its a terrific car, no doubt about it.

Also for anyone saying the 3 will be equal to the S but smaller and 20k or more cheaper, they are delusional, a company cannot survive with that strategy and it will obliterate their current customer base and their entire product line will be a joke. You really expect a $100k car and a $50k car to have the same features and quality and the 60k car just happens to be a tad smaller and slower to 60mph?

While the battery will be an upgrade compared to the current 60 for sure, It will be a downgrade in all other fronts and you will know it (materials, space, practicality, storage, drivability, comfort, features, tech).They are not going to re-invent the S to justify the price point above the 3 anytime soon, the 3 will sit below the current S and stay that way for this decade until a full redesign in 2020. My 2 cents.

 

[mbhforum]

Before you make a decision, let me show you some numbers I would expect to see:

Model S 60:

• $68,000 before options
• 210 miles EPA rated range
• 5.5s 0-60mph
• Comes with older 18650 cells. Won't support Supercharger V3

Model 3 75D

• $47,000 before options
• 304 miles EPA rated range (see details here)
• 5.0s 0-60mph
• Comes with newer 2170 cells. Will support Supercharger V3
• 18% faster supercharging compared to Model S 75D because of higher efficiency. I'm not adding Supercharger V3. That will be an additional speed increase on top of the 18%.
• 18% cheaper to charge than the Model S because of higher efficiency
• Same cabin space as the Model S

This is the first time I've seen that the M3 has the same interior size as the MS. Where did you see this info? I recall Tesla being very vague about interior cabin space.

 

[dennis_d]

In all honesty, you don't need a sub-zero package, I would say it's a waste of money, you can always preheat your car over the phone. Heated seats come standard. In cold climate you probably don't need the sunroof either, I live in CA and car heats up pretty fast with pano-roof. I'd rather have something to shield me from the sun.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @mbhforum. My comment is based on a few data points.

• Motor trend has published the Model 3 dimensions. These are available on Wikipedia here. Model S data is here. Both cars have the same height. Width is very similar too.
• I have measured the frontal area of both cars. The difference is only 2.9%, basically neglectable. See my method and data sources here.
• In this video, Tesla VP of engineering Dough Field explained how they increased cabin space by removing the dashboard.
• During the Model 3 reveal event, after the 6 min mark, Elon talked about how they increased the cabin space.
• There is the following image that compares the two cars.

 

[mbhforum]

Hi, @mbhforum. My comment is based on a few data points.

• Motor trend has published the Model 3 dimensions. These are available on Wikipedia here. Model S data is here. Both cars have the same height. Width is very similar too.
• I have measured the frontal area of both cars. The difference is only 2.9%, basically neglectable. See my method and data sources here.
• In this video, Tesla VP of engineering Dough Field explained how they increased cabin space by removing the dashboard.
• During the Model 3 reveal event, after the 6 min mark, Elon talked about how they increased the cabin space.
• There is the following image that compares the two cars.

I recall the dashboard discussion which actually convinced me to even place a reservation as I didn't want another BMW series 3 size, but didn't think it would be that close in size.

I would imagine the trunk and frunk size would be considerably bigger than the M3. I agree with @davinci2017's statement about the MS being more upscale in certain areas and I would be really surprised if cabin space wasn't bigger than 3% difference. They just have to create reasons for people to spend another 20k.

 

[Troy]

@mbhforum. No, Tesla doesn't have to do that. Instead, they will select a much simpler solution. They will discontinue the Model S variants that don't sell much. 90 will be gone within 6 months. 75 kWh will be gone by mid-2018. That's my prediction.

The Model 3 is cheaper to produce. They have a much more automated production line. In conference calls, Elon referred to it as alien dreadnought version 0.5, meaning that when the Model 3 production line reaches v1.0, it will look like alien technology. Elon also said humans won't be allowed in the Model 3 production line because they would reduce the speed to human speed. I recommend listening to Tesla conference calls. You can find them here. You can enter any name and email to listen.

Update: I've found the relevant section. The audio starts HERE at 44:11

The Model 3 – the internal name for designing the machine makes the machine is the – we call it the alien dreadnought. At the point at which the factory looks like an alien dreadnought, then you know you've won. It's like, what the hell is that? So we've got alien dreadnought version 0.5 will be Model 3. It will take us another year get to version 1 and probably a major version every two years thereafter. By version 3, it won't look like anything else. It might look like a giant chip pick-and-place machine or a super high-speed bottling or canning plant, and you really can't have people in the production line itself. Otherwise, you'll automatically drop to people speed. There's still a lot of people at the factory, but what they're doing is maintaining the machines, upgrading them, dealing with anomalies. But in the production process itself, there essentially would be no people.

 

[mbhforum]

@mbhforum. No, Tesla doesn't have to do that. Instead, they will select a much simpler solution. They will discontinue the Model S variants that don't sell much. 90 will be gone within 6 months. 75 kWh will be gone by mid-2018. That's my prediction.

The Model 3 is cheaper to produce. They have a much more automated production line. In conference calls, Elon referred to it as alien dreadnought version 0.5, meaning that when the Model 3 production line reaches v1.0, it will look like alien technology. Elon also said humans won't be allowed in the Model 3 production line because they would reduce the speed to human speed. I recommend listening to Tesla conference calls. You can find them here. You can enter any name and email to listen.

I definitely think they will simplify their options. I just don't know if all that will be left is a 100 kw option. Time will tell

 

[calisnow]

WRT unlimited supercharging - just remember that most of those inventory unlimited supercharging cars were built prior to the small overlap crash protection improvements that Tesla made on January 23rd. Check the build date of any car you are considering buying.

Currently there are only 9 Model S's that have 2017 VINs and also have free unlimited supercharging. The good news is some of those 9 were added to stock today - clearly cars are still coming out of the factory which were ordered just before the supercharging deadline but which entered production after the Jan 23 safety improvements.

 

[fasteddie7]

Get the S. Elon has said on several occasions that the 3 is being built with manufacturing simplicity in mind so it will not have all of the bells and whistles and luxury of the S. The S is an amazing vehicle and worth every penny. Why wait an unknown number of months (or years) when you can start enjoying a Tesla asap.