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60KWH roll-in - B5 theory: they won't do it til after Jan1

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Babylonfive, Nov 29, 2012.

  1. Babylonfive

    Babylonfive Power12

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    #1 Babylonfive, Nov 29, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
    Perhaps, but I think that they won't even think of the 60s before the end of the year, even if everything was approved.

    Here's why: anything different might slow the factory, and they want to blow their delivery estimate for the end of the year out of the water - therefore reduce the risk, and ship 4K or more. It drives their stock price up early next year when they announce beating expectations.

    That's my theory and I'm sticking to it.

    Thoughts?

    p.s. - I want to be wrong about this, reeally i do... <sigh>
     
  2. Kipernicus

    Kipernicus Model S Res#P1440

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    I'll take a couple week delay for a long term positive impact on stock price!
     
  3. SteveH

    SteveH Member

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    I agree with the conclusion: no chance of getting 60s this year. But if we can get to January and everyone ahead of us has their cars already then at least we don't have to wait til Feb. Sure would like to see my car sometime in Jan.
     
  4. Tempus

    Tempus Member

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    yeah - i figure once they start producing the 60's, those of us under 5k reservation number should get em pretty quick - can't imagine there's that many of us. Here's to early january!
     
  5. vcor

    vcor Member

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    I've been told there is a reasonable chance of getting my 60KW this year, but it may end up in January. I think they'd like to ship a few so they can say it's in production, if they do make some this year and how many, that's still unclear. No VIN yet. (P236).
     
  6. SteveH

    SteveH Member

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    You've got the lowest 60kWh # I've seen yet. I'm pulling for you to get it this year. And welcome to posting!
     
  7. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    My money is still for 60's to ship in the Fall. So what is the last day of Fall again?:cursing:
     
  8. mbcaffe

    mbcaffe Member

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    I agree. I think they will start a production this quarter and deliver a couple so they can report a milestone on next earnings report.


    P3446
     
  9. ahimberg

    ahimberg Member

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    60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60! I sent an email to tesla also to see if they'd get any info on production ETA for my 60 (P3081)

    hopefully we'll at least get a timeline for 60 production start to get something to string us along a little longer. (and selfishly hope that they don't deliver too many >3000 before I get mine :) )
     
  10. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    @aimberg, you are right after me and just down the street (I'm in Issaquah), I'd bet we get ours at the same time, maybe in a delivery party, thanks for sending off an email to TM!
     
  11. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    I think you're dead on. Plus, I'm sure the profit margin is higher and just simply more profit to be had on Max Pack cars. That will help to show everyone that Tesla will reach Elon's announced goal of making profit by next year and being cash flow positive before the end of this year.

    Tesla Motors CEO: We Expect to Be Profitable Next Year | Fox Business Video
     
  12. ahimberg

    ahimberg Member

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    Good odds of that yeah! I will choose the earliest time they offer me though, no offense :tongue:
     
  13. Ceilidh

    Ceilidh Member

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    #13 Ceilidh, Nov 30, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2012
    I have to say it is hard watching folks who reserved much later than me get their cars so much sooner... damn my cashflow.

    Having said that, I am still glad I took the $10K I would have spent on upgrading to the 85kWh Battery and put solar on my roof. Once the car is here I'll be glad I can drive it on pure sunlight most (if not all) of the time.

    I am happy that so many peeps are hearing good things from Tesla. I just hope us paupers with 60 kWh reservations hear something good soon as well...

    Cheers.


    Just to clarify: I put Solar on the roof of my house, not on the roof of the car, which I also don't own yet, because I ordered the 60 kWh battery.
     
  14. Babylonfive

    Babylonfive Power12

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    Thanks @vcor, @discoducky, etc. and that would be a great feather in the cap if they could say they started shipment (with even a few), but the rejiggering of the line seems like a risk that's not acceptable for the level of value, compared to getting more of a 'drum beat' of success: start fall deliveries of 85, beat the delivery estimate for fall/2012, start 60s in spring, start 40s in late spring?
     
  15. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    This is probably the biggest driver, they need the gross margin and the attendant cash flow in this Q4, just as much as the overall numbers. A few 60's would not dilute much, but if the logistics are an issue at all, why would they risk it?
     
  16. Ceilidh

    Ceilidh Member

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    Because some of us who ordered 60 kWh batteries put down our reservation the opening week 3.5 years ago? Might want to be more thankful to the early believer despite income levels. Only putting out the most pricey cars adds to the public opinion (that is still pretty strong thanks to the recent political season) that Tesla only makes cars for the rich.

    IMHO it would make sense for them to quell this concern by churning out some lower priced cars ASAP so they can say they make cars that are cheaper than $100k.

    Just a thought.

    PS--Your forum screen name cracks me up. I keep picturing the bald chick every time I see it, if I am interpreting your reference correctly...

    Cheers.
     
  17. Babylonfive

    Babylonfive Power12

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    Yea, I thought it was the first Star Trek movie, as well...

    persis.PNG
     
  18. ahimberg

    ahimberg Member

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    So I got a response but nothing detailed, just that I'm on track for early 2013 delivery. (they didn't respond to when 60's in general go into production)
    guess we can hope for the tesla bulletin board to get an official answer soon

    I also asked about getting the 12way+heated textile seats but the response was you have to delay into the 2013 post price increase to get that option.
     
  19. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    I am a 60kWh reservation (#1431). Delaying an order until the heated textile seats are available may exclude one from having access to the Supercharger Network. Something to look into.
     
  20. ahimberg

    ahimberg Member

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    There was a mention on one of the other threads of someone who said their DS was going to let them change their config (maybe to Red?) and keep the SC credit. Unknown if they'll do the same just for changing your config for seats. While I'd really like them too, waiting an additional 4 months is not worth it... (plus my wife hates heated seats since heat is bad for certain types of back problems.. she'd want a seat ice-r)
     

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