7-Series Competitor

[WhiteKnight]

Tesla used to tell investors that they would build 4 vehicles off the Model S "skateboard" platform:

• Sedan
• SUV/Crossover
• Van
• Cabriolet

Now they simply say:

• Model S
• Model X
• Future Product
• Future Product

From what we've heard about the Model X, it will have a stretched wheelbase (compared to Model S) and it will be "as functional as a Minivan and cooler than any Crossover you've seen" (combining the Van and Crossover concepts).

They're probably still going to do the convertible, so what will the 4th "future product" be?

Which made me think "why drive down market, when there's an untapped segment up market."

So if they're stretching the wheelbase then the next logical step (to my way of thinking) is to use that to create a BMW 7-series competitor that prices out $77K / $87K / $97K. Lexus is selling the LS460 Hybrid. I think Tesla could do very well in this segment competing against the S-Class, 7-Series, LS460, etc.

Has anyone heard any rumblings about this?

 

[AnOutsider]

No rumblings here, though that isn't a horrible idea. I just wonder from a PR standpoint if going back UP would make sense given their statements regarding the target being an affordable car for the masses. I imagine that would fuel more hate and bashing. Though, with the X likely going up above the S as well I suppose it's a wash.

I hope they get all the bang they can out of their bucks put into the platform. I can certainly see something like an A8 competitor, though the S is already fairly large (maybe not so much in the interior).

 

[VolkerP]

luxury class competitors would tap into high price segment, true. But consider that an investment of $100m in development and tooling the production lines must be paid back by the number of sold cars plus economics-of-scale cost decrements on the parts common to all models based on the skateboard platform.
If it is profitable to develop a Model X and sell 15k / year, why not a 7-Series competitor.
Methinks however that a sexy luxury convertible would really stir up things, receiving lots more of attention, press coverage, high profile first buyers, and so on.

 

[tdelta1000]

I like the idea but TM has to officially launch the Model S (Production), move the Model X into Alpha status, share images and information on the Roadster and/ or Bluestar before going in that direction. Just my two cents.

 

[Jaff]

This also makes me wonder about the Bluestar timeline, and, if the Bluestar will eventually be built.

If TM achieves great success with the Model S, Model X, a Future convertible, and perhaps a new Roadster, they might have to revisit the idea of even attempting to manufacture an entry level vehicle...there is plenty of room for TM in the upscale Sedan / Crossover / Convertible / Roadster marketplace...if the Bluestar's timeline gets pushed say 5 years down the road, will Nissan and other mainstream auto manufacturers have saturated the perspective Bluestar marketplace by then?...who knows...

luxury class competitors would tap into high price segment, true. But consider that an investment of $100m in development and tooling the production lines must be paid back by the number of sold cars plus economics-of-scale cost decrements on the parts common to all models based on the skateboard platform.
If it is profitable to develop a Model X and sell 15k / year, why not a 7-Series competitor.
Methinks however that a sexy luxury convertible would really stir up things, receiving lots more of attention, press coverage, high profile first buyers, and so on.

 

[Kipernicus]

if the Bluestar's timeline gets pushed say 5 years down the road, will Nissan and other mainstream auto manufacturers have saturated the perspective Bluestar marketplace by then?...who knows...

I think if Bluestar stays in the 3-series range of the market it should be ok re: competition.
I'd argue that the low end is already being saturated with existing (Leaf) and planned products (BMW 1 series active-e, VW Golf blue-e-motion, Ford Focus EV, mini-e, Toyota rav-4e, and maybe even BYD as a wildcard). Doesn't seem like there are as many shooting for the 3-series range.

 

[AnOutsider]

I'd argue that the low end is already being saturated with existing (Leaf) and planned products (BMW 1 series active-e, VW Golf blue-e-motion, Ford Focus EV, mini-e, Toyota rav-4e, and maybe even BYD as a wildcard). Doesn't seem like there are as many shooting for the 3-series range.

Agreed here

 

[shark2k]

I think if Bluestar stays in the 3-series range of the market it should be ok re: competition.
I'd argue that the low end is already being saturated with existing (Leaf) and planned products (BMW 1 series active-e, VW Golf blue-e-motion, Ford Focus EV, mini-e, Toyota rav-4e, and maybe even BYD as a wildcard). Doesn't seem like there are as many shooting for the 3-series range.

The BMW Active-E should not be included in that list. BMW is not going to be selling that car. It is going to be a 2 year closed leased when it comes out at the end of this year/early next year. The first official EV release from BMW is going to be the i3.

-Shark2k

 

[richkae]

Its probably worth starting a Leaf vs Bluestar thread.
What will make the Bluestar more compelling than the Leaf?
Thats the only segment that we know for sure Tesla would have competition in.

 

[TEG]

I think VFX has pointed out that a likely upcoming Infiniti EV sedan would likely be closer competition. Probably BMW 'i' vehicles too.

Also, in 3-5 years, there are bound to be other choices...
I don't see much point in trying to predict direct 'bluestar' competition this far out.

 

[stopcrazypp]

As a smaller make, doing a car that will maximize margins with the same equipment is the best thing to do in terms of profitability. But there'll be some backlash from people saying they broke their promise on Bluestar and also their vision for the EV future (there's already plenty of people complaining from the start that Tesla isn't building an affordable BEV, although it isn't entirely clear their opinion matters that much, since they obviously aren't investors or early customers/supporters of Tesla).

However, if there are already many affordable BEVs available at the time they have the resources necessary to launch a Bluestar, then it is not entirely clear if Tesla can be competitive. If Elon continues with this vision, I think it in the end, it'll ride on the success of the Model S platform vehicles. The Model S platform must generate enough profit so they have capital to send on expanding production capacity and creating a smaller platform for the Bluestar. That's the only way Tesla can even build a 3 series competitor, much less an entry level vehicle.

 

[WhiteKnight]

I think it in the end, it'll ride on the success of the Model S platform vehicles. The Model S platform must generate enough profit so they have capital to send on expanding production capacity and creating a smaller platform for the Bluestar. That's the only way Tesla can even build a 3 series competitor, much less an entry level vehicle.

well said - 100% agree

 

[Nik]

will make the Bluestar more compelling than the Leaf?

Range and styling, plus the 'made in USA' label for the US domestic market.

 

[Kevin Harney]

If they can make the X and then bring in a competitor for the 3 series including a sedan, coupe and convertible in the upper middle class range and then follow that with a 1 series competitor that starts in the $ 30K that puts them very close to offering a "Bluestar" or what could be considered a Bluestar and still keep them in the luxury class category. I see that as the ultimate way down to the lower cost vehicles and still remaining luxury as they are now. I do not see them trying to make a "CHEAP" car. One for the masses does not have to be cheap !! I like the fact that they are shooting for BMW, Mercedes Lexus and other well known luxury cars and not Nissan, Toyota, Chevy, Dodge, and other cheaper cars.

 

[VolkerP]

By the time blue star hits the road, we'll have a revised definition of what a "cheap" car is. It will shift from today's "low up front cost" towards "cheap to operate", "cheap to fill up" and the like. EVs are all about individual mobility itself not becoming a "luxury" good.

 

[Kevin Harney]

I do not think the world will have made that pardigm shift by the time Bluestar comes out. Or at least I hope so ... (meaning I want Bluestar sooner rather than later)

 

[AnOutsider]

By the time blue star hits the road, we'll have a revised definition of what a "cheap" car is. It will shift from today's "low up front cost" towards "cheap to operate", "cheap to fill up" and the like. EVs are all about individual mobility itself not becoming a "luxury" good.

I dunno... I don't see that. People with the means, sure, but people on a budget and with lower incomes would most likely go for the cheapest up front cost and hope to be able to make the payments down the line (for financing and maintenance). If they can't one month, they can't, but they still have the vehicle.

 

[SByer]

By the time the BlueStar comes out we'll likely be looking at $6/gal. in the U.S. I think people will start thinking abou mileage and operating costs at about $5/gal.

 

[Lloyd]

Or more!

 

[vfx]

Don't assume one way or another that the BMW 3 series means the Tesla 3rd gen car has the same appointments and luxury rating as the beamer. I was also told that the "Bluestar" is comparable (in size) to a Jetta.