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70D deliveries starting H2/16

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
126
Portland, OR, USA
What a sad joke to end that sad joke of Model X reservation.
So if you want a Model X 70D and got your reservation 3 years ago, you still have another 13 months to wait (because we know what "beginning in the second half of 2016" means, right? - the first one will be delivered the week of Christmas 2016, assuming Tesla actually keeps their promise which usually they don't...), Tesla has had your $5k for something like 4 years with zero interest and all the waiting in line did you no good whatsoever as thousands of people who reserved years after you will get their P90D long before you.

I must admit that the crash landing going from being a huge Tesla fan to be utterly disgusted with the company has not been a good experience. But the last year has been a downward spiral as far as I'm concerned.
 

dmunjal

Active Member
Aug 17, 2012
1,186
1,257
What a sad joke to end that sad joke of Model X reservation.
So if you want a Model X 70D and got your reservation 3 years ago, you still have another 13 months to wait (because we know what "beginning in the second half of 2016" means, right? - the first one will be delivered the week of Christmas 2016, assuming Tesla actually keeps their promise which usually they don't...), Tesla has had your $5k for something like 4 years with zero interest and all the waiting in line did you no good whatsoever as thousands of people who reserved years after you will get their P90D long before you.

I must admit that the crash landing going from being a huge Tesla fan to be utterly disgusted with the company has not been a good experience. But the last year has been a downward spiral as far as I'm concerned.
I didn't get a reservation but was patiently waiting for 70D pricing and timing. I'm also disappointed in the timing but Tesla didn't lose a customer as I just ended up getting a S70D instead to add to my S60. I couldn't wait another year either.
 

BornToFly

Supporting Member
May 8, 2013
1,760
11,744
Elon's world
What a sad joke to end that sad joke of Model X reservation.
So if you want a Model X 70D and got your reservation 3 years ago, you still have another 13 months to wait (because we know what "beginning in the second half of 2016" means, right? - the first one will be delivered the week of Christmas 2016, assuming Tesla actually keeps their promise which usually they don't...), Tesla has had your $5k for something like 4 years with zero interest and all the waiting in line did you no good whatsoever as thousands of people who reserved years after you will get their P90D long before you.

I must admit that the crash landing going from being a huge Tesla fan to be utterly disgusted with the company has not been a good experience. But the last year has been a downward spiral as far as I'm concerned.

I understand your frustration, but you're not looking at the big picture. Tesla needs to be cash flow positive soon. Just by selling 2,000 P90Ds a month over the 90Ds, is around $40,000,000 a month in extra profit. I wanted a 90D, not a P90D, but I think I'm going to pony up so I can have the car sooner. By becoming cash flow positive in Q1, the stock price will increase a lot, so the next cash raise will bring in more money with less dilution. As a stock holder, that makes me happy. All car companies do the same thing with hot products with limited availability if they can. Tesla can not afford to leave money on the table right now with Gigafactory expansion, Model 3 development, etc., still weighing them down.

I have a solution for you. Take the money you were going to spend on the 70, and buy as much stock as you can next week. In Q1, when the stock hits 300, sell and buy a P90D! :smile:
 

Lyon

2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D
Dec 26, 2011
2,004
215
Eugene, Oregon
Tesla did something similar, IIRC, with Model S reservations who selected 60 or 40 kWh battery packs or steel spring suspensions. I was hoping they wouldn't do the same thing with Model X because they've already got 70 kWh packs and, unlike before, won't have to develop something new. Maybe there are complexities we're not aware of with the other variants but it sure seems as though they're simply trying to maximize margins early on.
 

dmunjal

Active Member
Aug 17, 2012
1,186
1,257
I understand your frustration, but you're not looking at the big picture. Tesla needs to be cash flow positive soon. Just by selling 2,000 P90Ds a month over the 90Ds, is around $40,000,000 a month in extra profit. I wanted a 90D, not a P90D, but I think I'm going to pony up so I can have the car sooner. By becoming cash flow positive in Q1, the stock price will increase a lot, so the next cash raise will bring in more money with less dilution.

Do they really make a profit selling the Signature models? They've already got the $40K deposit. Let's be generous and say that $40K is the profit on a loaded P90D. They're just moving money from one bucket to another. Of course, revenue definitely increases.
 

MrBoylan

Member
Aug 2, 2013
945
267
New York, NY
Tesla did something similar, IIRC, with Model S reservations who selected 60 or 40 kWh battery packs or steel spring suspensions. I was hoping they wouldn't do the same thing with Model X because they've already got 70 kWh packs and, unlike before, won't have to develop something new. Maybe there are complexities we're not aware of with the other variants but it sure seems as though they're simply trying to maximize margins early on.
Yes, they are. And yes, it's the right thing to do to maximize profits while production-constrained. And YES, it sucks if you've been waiting for a 90D or 70D Model X.

As someone said earlier (I think it was vandacca), I support this as a shareholder but am tormented by it as a Model X depositor who doesn't want to pony up 20K to shave 1 second off the 0-60 time and get the car several months sooner. I want my 90D now!

- - - Updated - - -

Do they really make a profit selling the Signature models? They've already got the $40K deposit. Let's be generous and say that $40K is the profit on a loaded P90D. They're just moving money from one bucket to another. Of course, revenue definitely increases.
The key is the "P" not Signature specifically. The Performance upgrade is $20K, add another $10K for Ludicrous. The P upgrade involves a larger motor, maybe some upgraded wiring, "performance tuning," red calipers and an auto-adjusting spoiler. There must be *gobs* of profit in that. And I have a feeling that those who do decide to get the P will be more likely to get other options... "well I'm already spending $115K, why not add another $4,500 for fancy auto-opening doors, leather armrests and an air filter that will survive the zombie apocalypse?" More options=more revenue and more profit.

But as for the Sigs, I believe they are not allowed to realize the $40K deposit as revenue since it is refundable. So every Sig they can deliver counts as the full $132K or $142K in revenue, even though Tesla already has $40K of that in the bank.
 

dmunjal

Active Member
Aug 17, 2012
1,186
1,257
Yes, they are. And yes, it's the right thing to do to maximize profits while production-constrained. And YES, it sucks if you've been waiting for a 90D or 70D Model X.

As someone said earlier (I think it was vandacca), I support this as a shareholder but am tormented by it as a Model X depositor who doesn't want to pony up 20K to shave 1 second off the 0-60 time and get the car several months sooner. I want my 90D now!

- - - Updated - - -


The key is the "P" not Signature specifically. The Performance upgrade is $20K, add another $10K for Ludicrous. The P upgrade involves a larger motor, maybe some upgraded wiring, "performance tuning," red calipers and an auto-adjusting spoiler. There must be *gobs* of profit in that. And I have a feeling that those who do decide to get the P will be more likely to get other options... "well I'm already spending $115K, why not add another $4,500 for fancy auto-opening doors, leather armrests and an air filter that will survive the zombie apocalypse?"

But as for the Sigs, I believe they are not allowed to realize the $40K deposit as revenue since it is refundable. So every Sig they can deliver counts as the full $132K or $142K in revenue, even though Tesla already has $40K of that in the bank.
The revenue increase I agree with but I was responding to the point about increasing profits and cash flow. My point was that cash flow doesn't really increase since the $40K goes from the refundable deposit category to the net profit category. No new cash on the balance sheet.
 

Zythryn

Model Y custom Warming Stripes wrap.
Mar 18, 2009
2,174
1,199
Minnesota
The revenue increase I agree with but I was responding to the point about increasing profits and cash flow. My point was that cash flow doesn't really increase since the $40K goes from the refundable deposit category to the net profit category. No new cash on the balance sheet.

I'm not an accountant, so someone who knows better please feel free to correct me...
My understanding is the deposits are considered a liability.
So not only are they gaining ~$142k in a sale, they are removing $40k from the liability category.
 

simplejack

Member
Aug 7, 2015
91
0
United States
I understand your frustration, but you're not looking at the big picture. Tesla needs to be cash flow positive soon. Just by selling 2,000 P90Ds a month over the 90Ds, is around $40,000,000 a month in extra profit. I wanted a 90D, not a P90D, but I think I'm going to pony up so I can have the car sooner. By becoming cash flow positive in Q1, the stock price will increase a lot, so the next cash raise will bring in more money with less dilution. As a stock holder, that makes me happy. All car companies do the same thing with hot products with limited availability if they can. Tesla can not afford to leave money on the table right now with Gigafactory expansion, Model 3 development, etc., still weighing them down.

I have a solution for you. Take the money you were going to spend on the 70, and buy as much stock as you can next week. In Q1, when the stock hits 300, sell and buy a P90D! :smile:

Well, that would be a foolish investment based on Tesla's delivery track record to date, and the fact that you assumed they would be able to sell 15k P90s at about $130k a car. This is more than MB AMG/BMW X5 M/Porsche Cayenne Turbo combined sell in a year and you think Tesla is going to double that in 6 months?

Lots of air in that bubble your blowing IMO.
 

Aljohn

Member
Oct 17, 2014
907
505
Georgia
Interestingly, we didn't know there even was a 70KWH battery option until a few days ago. Elon always said, if there were a 70Kwh and Single motor option, it wouldn't be until the end of 2016 -- Tesla has 25,000 reservation holders who have waiting for 1-3 years for the Model X. I could be mistaking, but the expectation was due to the additional size and weight, the Model X was planned to have only the 85Kwh battery -- the 65Kwh was never a suggestion.

I understand the disappointment in the timing, but the reality may be the 70Kwh option was not expected until recently. When Tesla announced the Dual Motor (P85D), they decided to build only the Performance model first. To Tesla's surprise, more wanted the P85D over the 85D for early delivery. Some (including myself) expected Tesla to do the same with the X,
to leverage manufacturing process and garner economies of scale. Those who don't want to spend the extra $20,000 for the Performance Model have an argument as well -- but if Tesla can stream line the production process and ramp with a Single Model... they may produce the 90D and 70D faster than published -- that's what occurred with the Model S. Maybe history will repeat.
 

goneskiian

Active Member
Nov 16, 2012
2,623
811
Bellevue WA
I'm surprised there is actual shock being experssed by this tactic of Tesla's. No offense, but if you didn't see this coming you haven't been paying attention.
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,983
8,907
Marin County, CA
By the end of Q1 Tesla will be producing 600-1k MX's per week. So if you have a reservation you should have your car by June.
 

shokunin

P85 & M3
Feb 28, 2012
1,199
630
Irvine, CA
By the end of Q1 Tesla will be producing 600-1k MX's per week. So if you have a reservation you should have your car by June.

I agree with this. Regardless of what pack size you order, you'll likely get your car by June (assuming they get through supplier issues). While they are supplier constrained, they will ship out the most profitable cars first. After those constraints are gone, they need to feed and keep the production line busy. It's way optimistic to think there's 15,000 people lined up to buy a 140K SUV, if you follow the Model S ordering thread, roughly 15% opt for the performance model.
 

Zaxxon

Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2012
4,668
21,467
Colorado
I sure hope you guys are right, but I can't think of any examples where Tesla beat their public guidance by months.
 

Merrill

Merrill
Jan 23, 2013
3,909
1,381
Sonoma, California
I agree that the Model X ramp up and delivery is disappointing to everyone, but for me I did not expect to receive my model X until summer of 2016. So if I decide to order the 70 waiting another few months is not a big deal. Now for me I like to look at the big picture, I want Telsa to survive to make the Model 3. I will not purchase this vehicle but believe it will be a game changer for the automotive world, and I want to support a company that has this vision. We all must keep in mind that there has not been an independent car company that has survived since Henry Ford, let alone an all electric well designed, can go several hundred miles on a charge, fun to drive, a technological dream that is a decade old not a century old!
 

shokunin

P85 & M3
Feb 28, 2012
1,199
630
Irvine, CA
So, what we should see coming is Tesla beating delivery expectations for the first time ever? Not sure I understand that logic.

They did this same tactic with the Model S launch. People upgrading from 60 to 85 to get their car sooner. When the Model S launched the talk was "a year wait" if you reserve now.

However, Tesla blew through most of those 20,000 reservation from December-May. Now this excluded all of the international reservations. I had a friend who put a deposit down in May '13 and got his car in July of 2013. So much for that 1 year wait.
 

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