70D deliveries starting H2/16

[dirkhh]

No, and that won't be the case with the X either. The X90D will be delivered in 6 months (likely sooner). As will the 70 or whatever it actually comes as.

And that highly optimistic statement is based on... what?
Tesla's track record so far:

Promise "first production delivery in Q3"
Result "6 cars handed to insiders in the last week of Q3"

Promise "Signature reservations delivered in Q4"
Result "it looks like a hand full of lucky early Sig buyers will get theirs in the last week of Q4"

Promise "Model X 70D will start shipping in the second half of 2016"
Your expected result "All Model X reservation holders who want a '70' will have theirs by May 2016 (likely sooner)"
My expected result "First Model X 70D will be shipped to early reservation holder last week of 2016"

I don't know, somehow I think my prediction is more consistent with the pattern, but of course you could be right, because of all these other cases where Tesla has under-promised and over-delivered. Like "..." or "...".

 

[dmunjal]

If I remember correctly, people ordering P85s back in 2013 were getting their cars before those who had 60s and 40s on order for months before. I could see the same thing happening with the X launch.

 

[goneskiian]

OK, I admit my prediction is optimistic to the point of being overly so. I base it on Tesla's repeated statements that once they get production going they will be ramping up to hundreds a week quickly and my belief that they will get through the PX orders in a couple months. Then again, they were surprised by the numbers of PS's they sold too so maybe there will be more PX's than I think there will be.

 

[Sbkirkland]

I agree. It is ridiculous. When I put my deposit down in May of 2013 I was told my car would be configured and delivered based on my reservation date. Tesla has done a bate and switch. Now it is based on whether or not you want to spend an extra 30k for the bigger battery. It has been nothing but one disappointment after another. I couldn't even get excited about building my car because of course it will probably be a year from now until I get. Another case of corporate greed. They need money so who cares about the people who have been waiting the longest it is all about who will pay the most.

What a sad joke to end that sad joke of Model X reservation.
So if you want a Model X 70D and got your reservation 3 years ago, you still have another 13 months to wait (because we know what "beginning in the second half of 2016" means, right? - the first one will be delivered the week of Christmas 2016, assuming Tesla actually keeps their promise which usually they don't...), Tesla has had your $5k for something like 4 years with zero interest and all the waiting in line did you no good whatsoever as thousands of people who reserved years after you will get their P90D long before you.

I must admit that the crash landing going from being a huge Tesla fan to be utterly disgusted with the company has not been a good experience. But the last year has been a downward spiral as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I agree. It is ridiculous. When I put my deposit down in May of 2013 I was told my car would be configured and delivered based on my reservation date. Tesla has done a bate and switch. Now it is based on whether or not you want to spend an extra 30k for the bigger battery. It has been nothing but one disappointment after another. I couldn't even get excited about building my car because of course it will probably be a year from now until I get. Another case of corporate greed. They need money so who cares about the people who have been waiting the longest it is all about who will pay the most.

If you're not going to use your reservation, would you be willing to part your spot for $1,000?

 

[goneskiian]

Everyone here complaining needs to go reread section 2 of their reservation agreement.

I'll save you the searching...

2. Nature of Agreement; Non-Binding Reservation Payment
The Reservation Payment is fully refundable by us to you at any time
(for example, if you choose to cancel or abandon your reservation, or if
we decline to maintain you as a reservation holder). This Agreement
does not constitute an agreement for the sale of a Model X and does not
lock in pricing, a production slot, or an estimated delivery date. You are
under no obligation to purchase a Model X from us, and we are under no
obligation to supply you with a Model X or any other vehicle. If and when
we notify you of the availability of a Model X and you wish to proceed
with the purchase of a Model X, such sale and purchase will be governed
by a separate and legally binding Purchase Agreement between you
and us or between you and another authorized Tesla dealer (Tesla).

 

[simplejack]

Everyone here complaining needs to go reread section 2 of their reservation agreement.

I'll save you the searching...

2. Nature of Agreement; Non-Binding Reservation Payment
The Reservation Payment is fully refundable by us to you at any time
(for example, if you choose to cancel or abandon your reservation, or if
we decline to maintain you as a reservation holder). This Agreement
does not constitute an agreement for the sale of a Model X and does not
lock in pricing, a production slot, or an estimated delivery date. You are
under no obligation to purchase a Model X from us, and we are under no
obligation to supply you with a Model X or any other vehicle. If and when
we notify you of the availability of a Model X and you wish to proceed
with the purchase of a Model X, such sale and purchase will be governed
by a separate and legally binding Purchase Agreement between you
and us or between you and another authorized Tesla dealer (Tesla).

Oh, that makes everyone feel so much better......

I'm sure pretty much all of us could pull out the screenshots of the various dates we've been told the X would launch Tesla didn't come close to. Your point, while technically valid, completely misses the mark when it comes to a product that had been originally expected 2 years ago. Then everyone that waited for the "reveal" 2 months ago and at that time were not told anything about waiting for ANOTHER 9 months just to get the car. All the while collecting new deposits to deliver at the same time as someone who deposited 3 years ago. Then when they finally launch the vehicle, we're told everyone who doesn't want a P90D has to wait more.

I would have been fine with them communicating the following:

1. We are opening the configuration to all production reservation holders by end of 2016.
2. All P reservation holders who order a P90D will receive their cars first. As long as you have placed your order for a P90D bu Jan 15th, you will be one of the first P reservation holders to receive their car. We will do our best to deliver in order of reservation, but option configurations will alter the production schedule.
3. After we produce the initial round of P90Ds, we will produce 90Ds for the initial P reservation holders. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders of the P90D, but we estimate that initial deliveries of the 90D will happen beginning 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the initial 90Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 15th.
4. Once all of the initial 90Ds have been delivered we will be delivering the first 70Ds. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders for the P90D or the 90D, but we estimate the initial deliveries of the 70D will happen by the end of 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the first 70Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 28th.

The key for Tesla would have been to communicate this info BEFORE they opened the configuration to production reservations. This would have actually set expectations, rather than rely on people posting on an internet forum to piece the story together.

 

[Sbkirkland]

Bate and Switch

Well thanks for finding that, but that is not what was said by sales people over and over again. I was told time and time again when I called, when I went to test drive the new P85D, when they took the sequence number off the website and I called in, that I would receive my car based on my sequence number. In fact when I inquired, I was asked do you know your sequence number, then I was given an estimation of when my car would be delivered. There was absolutely nothing asked about which model battery are planning on getting.

Also as far as people who are saying the 70d was not even an option. When I put my money down in May 2013, they didn't know anything about what battery was going to be offered or what price the car was going to be. It was still a prototype and in the design phase. They had no ability to give any option or notification as to if I chose one battery over the other it would take longer. All they did know and what they told me to get me to put my deposit down was that it was going to begin production and delivery in the 4th quarter of 2014 and I would get my car based on when I made my reservations and my sequence number. Then they had delay after delay and here it is December 2015 and I still don't have my car. Now if I don't pony up for the bigger battery, I have to wait another year while people who just put in a deposit get their car ahead of me. Yes I am complaining!

In response to all those stock holders that are worried about the stock price if they don't have sales and revenue. None of that will matter if they don't have customers. Doing the right thing for your early believers who have stood by waiting patiently for the car that was promised to be delivered based on reservation number will not prevent them from becoming profitable. Matter of fact it will be the weakening of the foundation of buying a new Tesla over and over again. In the next year they will have competition from BMW Mercedes Audi Porsche with complete electric SUVs. So in the big picture you take of the customer so that they will continue to take care of you. This only brings ill will toward a company that was supposed to be a different type of car company.

Everyone here complaining needs to go reread section 2 of their reservation agreement.

I'll save you the searching...

2. Nature of Agreement; Non-Binding Reservation Payment
The Reservation Payment is fully refundable by us to you at any time
(for example, if you choose to cancel or abandon your reservation, or if
we decline to maintain you as a reservation holder). This Agreement
does not constitute an agreement for the sale of a Model X and does not
lock in pricing, a production slot, or an estimated delivery date. You are
under no obligation to purchase a Model X from us, and we are under no
obligation to supply you with a Model X or any other vehicle. If and when
we notify you of the availability of a Model X and you wish to proceed
with the purchase of a Model X, such sale and purchase will be governed
by a separate and legally binding Purchase Agreement between you
and us or between you and another authorized Tesla dealer (Tesla).

 

[dirkhh]

Oh, that makes everyone feel so much better......

I'm sure pretty much all of us could pull out the screenshots of the various dates we've been told the X would launch Tesla didn't come close to. Your point, while technically valid, completely misses the mark when it comes to a product that had been originally expected 2 years ago. Then everyone that waited for the "reveal" 2 months ago and at that time were not told anything about waiting for ANOTHER 9 months just to get the car. All the while collecting new deposits to deliver at the same time as someone who deposited 3 years ago. Then when they finally launch the vehicle, we're told everyone who doesn't want a P90D has to wait more.

I would have been fine with them communicating the following:

1. We are opening the configuration to all production reservation holders by end of 2016.
2. All P reservation holders who order a P90D will receive their cars first. As long as you have placed your order for a P90D bu Jan 15th, you will be one of the first P reservation holders to receive their car. We will do our best to deliver in order of reservation, but option configurations will alter the production schedule.
3. After we produce the initial round of P90Ds, we will produce 90Ds for the initial P reservation holders. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders of the P90D, but we estimate that initial deliveries of the 90D will happen beginning 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the initial 90Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 15th.
4. Once all of the initial 90Ds have been delivered we will be delivering the first 70Ds. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders for the P90D or the 90D, but we estimate the initial deliveries of the 70D will happen by the end of 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the first 70Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 28th.

The key for Tesla would have been to communicate this info BEFORE they opened the configuration to production reservations. This would have actually set expectations, rather than rely on people posting on an internet forum to piece the story together.

Well thanks for finding that, but that is not what was said by sales people over and over again. I was told time and time again when I called, when I went to test drive the new P85D, when they took the sequence number off the website and I called in, that I would receive my car based on my sequence number. In fact when I inquired, I was asked do you know your sequence number, then I was given an estimation of when my car would be delivered. There was absolutely nothing asked about which model battery are planning on getting.

Also as far as people who are saying the 70d was not even an option. When I put my money down in May 2013, they didn't know anything about what battery was going to be offered or what price the car was going to be. It was still a prototype and in the design phase. They had no ability to give any option or notification as to if I chose one battery over the other it would take longer. All they did know and what they told me to get me to put my deposit down was that it was going to begin production and delivery in the 4th quarter of 2014 and I would get my car based on when I made my reservations and my sequence number. Then they had delay after delay and here it is December 2015 and I still don't have my car. Now if I don't pony up for the bigger battery, I have to wait another year while people who just put in a deposit get their car ahead of me. Yes I am complaining!

In response to all those stock holders that are worried about the stock price if they don't have sales and revenue. None of that will matter if they don't have customers. Doing the right thing for your early believers who have stood by waiting patiently for the car that was promised to be delivered based on reservation number will not prevent them from becoming profitable. Matter of fact it will be the weakening of the foundation of buying a new Tesla over and over again. In the next year they will have competition from BMW Mercedes Audi Porsche with complete electric SUVs. So in the big picture you take of the customer so that they will continue to take care of you. This only brings ill will toward a company that was supposed to be a different type of car company.

You both express very much what I feel here. Tesla is extremely lucky that the competition is asleep at the wheel. But that will change. And the wave of goodwill that they are gliding on right now will end.
I have already bought two Model S and was excited about the Model X. Right now I have very mixed emotions about the way I'm being treated by Tesla. Add to that what's happening with the v7 firmware (and yes, that's another reason I'm not too keen on the Model X - it will have v7 firmware, no doubt)... anyway. thanks to Sbkirkland and simplejack for chiming in

 

[Sbkirkland]

True Big Picture

The big picture that Tesla knows and all the annalists know is that for them to a sustainable car company they have to make the more affordable versions of all their cars. The problem is that they are late to that market and all the other car manufacturers are already selling plugin hybrids. These hybrids give the driver the ability to do their day to day driving without have to buy gas, but the comfort that they can go on long drives with the back up of gas. That is still a problem that Telsa has to overcome. Convincing the skeptics that their affordable version will still be able to drive long distance the same as a gas car. Telsa NEEDS customer loyalty and fans out their raving about how great the car is to over come the majority of car buyers. Tesla will not be able to pull this bate and switch with the more affordable models because there will already be too much competition.

Selling 2000 P90ds is not going to get them profitable nor to a sustainable car company!!!!! Pissing off their loyal customers who have been patiently waiting for the Model X standing by them with their countless delays is not the way to build customer loyalty. They have had my money for 2 and half years with no interest and now they are going to let people who just put their money down cut in front of me for 40k more. Again in the big picture those 2000 or whatever number of P90Ds is not going to make the difference in whether or not Tesla survives. What will make the difference is building brand loyalty and this is not the way to go about it.

Tesla stand by your loyal customers and produce their car in the order the reservation dated. That will go a lot further in helping you become a profitable and sustainable car company than selling a couple thousand P90Ds!!!

I understand your frustration, but you're not looking at the big picture. Tesla needs to be cash flow positive soon. Just by selling 2,000 P90Ds a month over the 90Ds, is around $40,000,000 a month in extra profit. I wanted a 90D, not a P90D, but I think I'm going to pony up so I can have the car sooner. By becoming cash flow positive in Q1, the stock price will increase a lot, so the next cash raise will bring in more money with less dilution. As a stock holder, that makes me happy. All car companies do the same thing with hot products with limited availability if they can. Tesla can not afford to leave money on the table right now with Gigafactory expansion, Model 3 development, etc., still weighing them down.

I have a solution for you. Take the money you were going to spend on the 70, and buy as much stock as you can next week. In Q1, when the stock hits 300, sell and buy a P90D! :smile:

 

[Blastphemy]

Tesla has had your $5k for something like 4 years with zero interest and all the waiting in line did you no good whatsoever as thousands of people who reserved years after you will get their P90D long before you.

You hit it on the nail. While perhaps the fine print in our reservation contract legally absolves Tesla from producing vehicles in the order reserved, the implication of having a firm reservation number was that #2,001 would receive his/her car immediately after #2,000, not after #20,000! This is a scummy bait and switch that doesn't produce enough robust revenue to offset the distrust and displeasure Tesla has now engendered. Tesla won't be profitable for quite some time, and now that eager reservation holders know what Tesla thinks of them, it's going to be even longer.

 

[aija SigX 649]

The big picture that Tesla knows and all the annalists know is that for them to a sustainable car company they have to make the more affordable versions of all their cars. The problem is that they are late to that market and all the other car manufacturers are already selling plugin hybrids. These hybrids give the driver the ability to do their day to day driving without have to buy gas, but the comfort that they can go on long drives with the back up of gas. That is still a problem that Telsa has to overcome. Convincing the skeptics that their affordable version will still be able to drive long distance the same as a gas car. Telsa NEEDS customer loyalty and fans out their raving about how great the car is to over come the majority of car buyers. Tesla will not be able to pull this bate and switch with the more affordable models because there will already be too much competition.

Selling 2000 P90ds is not going to get them profitable nor to a sustainable car company!!!!! Pissing off their loyal customers who have been patiently waiting for the Model X standing by them with their countless delays is not the way to build customer loyalty. They have had my money for 2 and half years with no interest and now they are going to let people who just put their money down cut in front of me for 40k more. Again in the big picture those 2000 or whatever number of P90Ds is not going to make the difference in whether or not Tesla survives. What will make the difference is building brand loyalty and this is not the way to go about it.

Tesla stand by your loyal customers and produce their car in the order the reservation dated. That will go a lot further in helping you become a profitable and sustainable car company than selling a couple thousand P90Ds!!!

I've said this before, but it warrants repeating - TM has a lot of balls in the air! Satisfying customers, share holders, partners, and employees is an extremely delicate balance, especially while going up against the establishment! You and I may not agree on everything they do, and they may even admit taking some wrong turns, but all things considered - they are doing a phenomenal job! Against all odds - what they've been able to accomplish to date, and the plans they are executing against for the future, is nothing short of miraculous! Have faith and enjoy the ride :biggrin:

 

[Zaxxon]

I've said this before, but it warrants repeating - TM has a lot of balls in the air! Satisfying customers, share holders, partners, and employees is an extremely delicate balance, especially while going up against the establishment! You and I may not agree on everything they do, and they may even admit taking some wrong turns, but all things considered - they are doing a phenomenal job! Against all odds - what they've been able to accomplish to date, and the plans they are executing against for the future, is nothing short of miraculous! Have faith and enjoy the ride :biggrin:

I agree with this. I largely expected the X rollout to play out this way (Ps first, then biggest battery offered but non-P, then lower capacities) since that's what they did with the S. So I'm not losing any sleep over it, even though it means more delays for me since I won't be getting a P.

But that said, I had hoped that the rollout would be handled differently. With the S, it made complete sense--Tesla had no money, and they needed to get revenue coming in quickly and as efficiently as possible (so highest-margin vehicles at the front of the line). They also hadn't yet rolled out the various performance and battery capacities, so from all angles the move made sense. Today, there's less reason to put revenue ahead of satisfying customers, and the two capacities and all motors involved are already shipping.

So I'm modestly frustrated by the move, but I get Tesla's rationale. It's too bad that reservation holders are still being treated like a fungible commodity, though.

 

[simplejack]

I've said this before, but it warrants repeating - TM has a lot of balls in the air! Satisfying customers, share holders, partners, and employees is an extremely delicate balance, especially while going up against the establishment! You and I may not agree on everything they do, and they may even admit taking some wrong turns, but all things considered - they are doing a phenomenal job! Against all odds - what they've been able to accomplish to date, and the plans they are executing against for the future, is nothing short of miraculous! Have faith and enjoy the ride :biggrin:

There are no shareholders without customers.

There are no employees without customers.

 

[aija SigX 649]

There are no shareholders without customers.

There are no employees without customers.

..and no customers without product!

If the product is good, customers will come. We all hope the wait will be worth it.

 

[vandacca]

I'm in agreement with everyone that's posted about the lack of fairness with the current roll-out plans. But I do need to make a few points:

1.) I don't think the term, "Bait and switch", really applies here. They're not giving your a Model-Y when they promised a Model-X.

2.) I don't believe Tesla is as strong as everything thinks they are. They wouldn't have done another round of funding recently if they were doing well financially. Therefore, this particular roll-out scheme may still be necessary, as it was for the Model-S. Sure they're more secure than when the Model-S came out, but only because they now have a decent track record and investors are willing to cut them some slack.

3.) While I wish competition was on the horizon, I don't believe any of the big manufacturers are anywhere close to releasing a competing EV. I don't consider hybrids as competition. And even when there is a competing EV from another manufacturer, it still doesn't count unless they have a SuperCharger network to go with it. Therefore, I don't see there being a lot of pressure on Tesla right now to speed things up, which distresses me somewhat because sometimes I think they could use a little more focus.

4.) While I don't like them prioritizing Performance models first (I was not planning to go performance), in doing so, they will maximize the number of performance models they sell because there will be more people considering it, in order to get the vehicle sooner (not exactly fair, I know). From a business stand-point, this is a good decision (especially if you own TSLA stock). From a reservation holder stand-point, its horrible.

However, if there are a lot of stubborn people out there that refuse to get the performance model, then that should speed up the transition to non-performance, since they'll get through the P90D fairly quickly.

And I'm in agreement with others that have noted that the delay of the 5-seat option is likely due to some re-design work (maybe folding seats?) being done as I type.

 

[goneskiian]

Well said vandacca. Thank you for the level headed response.

 

[flankspeed8]

..and no customers without product!

If the product is good, customers will come. We all hope the wait will be worth it.

But I would not invite Tesla to be complacent or presumptive that prospective customers will continue to take these delays without consequence. For a practical reason, I cancelled my X reservation that was placed a year ago. I called the 800 number and the cancellation was completed in less than 3 minutes. I asked the gentleman if he needed any more information and his quote kind of surprised me: "nope, your not the first to cancel today...we have been getting lots of calls." He was very courteous and honest. By the way, this was the day after it was announced that the smaller battery cars were going to be delayed. It will be interesting to see what the X backlog is when they report the next q's financials. Strangely, my dashboard still shows my reservation as active.

 

[MrBoylan]

I would have been fine with them communicating the following:

1. We are opening the configuration to all production reservation holders by end of 2016.
2. All P reservation holders who order a P90D will receive their cars first. As long as you have placed your order for a P90D bu Jan 15th, you will be one of the first P reservation holders to receive their car. We will do our best to deliver in order of reservation, but option configurations will alter the production schedule.
3. After we produce the initial round of P90Ds, we will produce 90Ds for the initial P reservation holders. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders of the P90D, but we estimate that initial deliveries of the 90D will happen beginning 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the initial 90Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 15th.
4. Once all of the initial 90Ds have been delivered we will be delivering the first 70Ds. We are not sure yet of the production capacity or expected orders for the P90D or the 90D, but we estimate the initial deliveries of the 70D will happen by the end of 2Q 2016. All current reservation holders that want to receive one of the first 70Ds will need to confirm their order by Feb 28th.

The key for Tesla would have been to communicate this info BEFORE they opened the configuration to production reservations. This would have actually set expectations, rather than rely on people posting on an internet forum to piece the story together.

Well said. And probably close to the truth! They should totally just cut and paste your post into an e-mail and send it out too all production reservation holders.

 

[dirkhh]

But I would not invite Tesla to be complacent or presumptive that prospective customers will continue to take these delays without consequence. For a practical reason, I cancelled my X reservation that was placed a year ago. I called the 800 number and the cancellation was completed in less than 3 minutes. I asked the gentleman if he needed any more information and his quote kind of surprised me: "nope, your not the first to cancel today...we have been getting lots of calls." He was very courteous and honest. By the way, this was the day after it was announced that the smaller battery cars were going to be delayed. It will be interesting to see what the X backlog is when they report the next q's financials. Strangely, my dashboard still shows my reservation as active.

That's interesting. Of course only anecdotal information, but still interesting. And if this is indeed a reflection of reality, then this is very bad news for Tesla.I really hope that we'll get a good idea of the number of conversions from the 30k+ Model X reservations. My guess is that they'll convert maybe 2/3 if they are lucky.