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Discussion in 'Model S' started by fasteddie7, Jan 9, 2019.
Don't feed us this BS... You love doing all that planning.
MR (Mid Range)
It's all about marketing. Nobody wants a short range. That is why there isn't a short range Model 3 option. LOL
Other than the ~2 years the Model 3 was sold with a single battery size, right?
I think in the long term you're absolutely right and there will be multiple battery sizes again, but I don't see it happening immediately. If that was the case, why announce the change at all? What incentive does Tesla have to convince a bunch of fence sitters to click "buy" on a 75 only to come out with a better replacement the day after they discontinue it? That's not good business.
Fair point on the M3. Although that's a bit of a special circumstance, I would argue.
It's makes a lot of business sense. There are undoubtedly a bunch of people who are on the edge of buying an S, who are on the edge of being able to afford or justify the cost of a 75D. They would be really upset if the 75D unceremoniously disappeared in favour of a somewhat more costly one. And the new bottom end will (at least for now) be somewhat more costly. This will give them a chance to buy in. It is possible that it will take a week or two for them to make the announcements, but I firmly believe it will happen.
I'll bet you a die-cast model S that there will be at least 2 battery options come end of day January 25th.
Ahem... SR,MR,LR - > standard range, medium range and long range. And maybe a really long range... let's call it the Texas medium range (TMR) to reference a really old joke.
I stand corrected... LOL
I'll take that.
Cool! I was thinking about buying one. Now I won't have to!
Still have my original 40 (locked) w/CHAdeMO. 90k miles. No regrets (so far). I've also owned a 3... and I've often recommended a low end S or CPO to those considering a 3. The S, despite it's design age is a better car (IMO).
Tesla is intentionally trying to make a distinction based on price disparity and profit margins. Good for them... not so good for us.
Guess all they need right now is to focus on Model 3 sales. Model 3 is their revenue stream to the entire world, and the company is not new any more.
Considering they now want the delivery experience to be like a Starbucks mobile order... online, pick up, then get the hell out... in under 5 minutes (no bow for you!)...
I think their battery sizing lexicon should adapt to what everyone on the planet is already used to: Tall, Grande, Venti
The 'Roadster Trenta'... coming soon.
I haven't read all the posts, but have read a decent number of them. Forgive me if I'm redundant.
I doubt they can sell 100,000 S/X per year if there isn't a 75D option. Anecdotally, it seems like the 75D is the most common S/X new delivery in my neck of the woods, and it is what I chose. For me, the extra ~80 miles of range wasn't worth $18k, and after 25,000 miles I have had two occasions in which the larger battery would have sped my trip up by ~30 minutes by not having to Supercharge. I would also disagree that the 75 buyers are going to just move to the 3. The S is simply larger than the 3 and the 3 is much, much smaller than the X. The 75D S/X is still a high margin car that contributes to their bottom line substantially, andI just don't see them walking away from that.
I think this is going to coincide with the SC v3 announcement that will let the 100kWh batteries in the S/X charge much faster. The 75kWh batteries wouldn't benefit from v3, so they can't offer it. I suspect they will produce 6-8 weeks of only 100kWh Model S/X and then come out with the standard range and long range S/X in the early spring with the 2170 cells. The SR will likely be an 85-90 kWh pack with 300 miles range and the LR will be a 120kWh with a 400 mile range. I suspect the pricing on the SR and LR will be marginally higher (3-5% maybe?) than how the 75 and 100 are priced now.
If this happens it will really put pressure on these "Tesla Killers" that are supposedly coming. The EQC, e-Tron, and iPace are going to look much less appealing than similarly priced a Model S/X with a range of 300 or 400 miles and significantly faster charging.
Good thoughts all. Agree that this is a move to 2170, which means lighter/cheaper/smaller battery packs per given kwh. They will be moving towards 2 range models with those packs by the end of 2019, and will thus destroy the upcoming Aud etc. competition by the time those arrive in any numbers in 2020. They will need an interior refresh by then too on the S to maintain the ability to ask luxury pricing.
That's a lot of expensive battery cells left unused.
I think for now 100D will get a price cut but no battery change. 2170 switch and 130D will happen after model Y.
I have a 5 years car replacement insurance which is different from original value payment without deductible. I asked my insurance if I need to replace my car in event of total loss, and that model is not available. Their reply was, they will replace my car with current model of the same company. In this case they will replace my 75D with then 100D (maybe 130D in next 3.5 years).
If they don’t go 2170, then it will be 85 and 100. There’s zero chance that they have only one battery. It would be leaving money on the table.
Given Tesla’s push to streamline manufacturing and production overall, I’d have to think they will ensure a standard set of 2170 battery sizes are used across all models.
Model 3/Y SR - 220 miles
Model 3/Y LR - 310 miles
Model S/X SR (likely an M3 LR battery) - 310mi
New Model S/X LR - est. 400+ miles
(Assume Y and X are slightly lower in range)
3 batteries for 4 different vehicles and 8 sets of ranges. Makes total sense from a manuf standpoint and keeping it clean for customers across all models.
Similar to ICE manuf streamlining 1 4cyl, 1 V6 and adopting turbos etc to vary power and output.
Looks like you have a date with a power pole in your future.
My prediction is the switch to the 2170 cells with the following ranges:
Model X SR - 250 miles
Model X MR - 320 miles
Model X LR Performance - 350 miles
Model S SR - 275 miles
Model S MR - 350 miles
Model S LR Performace - 400 miles
SR is plenty of miles for most people, keeps entry price down and boosts sales, MR offers more range For those who need it, and then package the LR with performance at an ultra premium EV at an ultra premium price to help increase the average margin (in dollars) for the S and X.