I think about now is the time to buy if going with the S75. The $5K price drop was nice, then there is the $7500 tax credit that will not be around long once the 3 ramps up. I don't know how significant it is but my serial number is 199XXX. If they are numbering sequentially from 1, then it's foreign sales keeping us below 200,000.
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Ya, but this time around... at least it will maybe be a real 85!
whitex
Well-Known Member
Yes, foreign sales don't count, but on the other hand there are Model X US sales that count towards the 200,000 as well (also numbered sequentially from 1). Anyone know what is the number of sold Tesla's in the US?
If I remember right, there are gaps in the VIN sequences.
However, less than half of Teslas are sold in the U.S.
We've got a good bit of time left on the rebate, depending on how fast the 3 ramps and what Congress does.
As Tesla don't give out numbers per country it's hard to get exact number but Insideevs have tried to keep count and according to them Tesla had sold 110 849 at the end of 2016 in US.
US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker
For 2017 they have counted 15 590 in the first five month so if Tesla don't manage to ramp up Model 3 in huge speed they shouldn't pass 200 000 this year. After they have pass that number Tesla still have up to two quarters with full rebate wish means that maybe Tesla have the full $7500 until June 2018.
Possibly, but with the price of batteries continuing to go down, if they're not going to software limit a 100Kwh battery they'll just sell the 100Kwh battery as the lowest price point eventually. Not far fetched to imagine a P120D in 2020. Took 4 years to go from 85 to 100. I'm confident in another 2-3 they'll go from 100 to 120.
The new small pack will probably be called an 85, but it will be a bit more than 85, closer to a new 90. However, the performance will be pretty much the same as the current 75. With only 14 modules, the pack voltage is only 350V instead of the 400V of the larger pack. That affects how well the car can launch.
The range might end up being a little better than the old 90 due to the lighter weight with the smaller pack.
It will work to distinguish the Model S from the Model 3. The top Model 3 will likely have less than 300 miles range and the new 85 or 90 will be close if not a little more than 300 miles.
The range might end up being a little better than the old 90 due to the lighter weight with the smaller pack.
It will work to distinguish the Model S from the Model 3. The top Model 3 will likely have less than 300 miles range and the new 85 or 90 will be close if not a little more than 300 miles.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Yea, but by just rearranging the same cells the current capacity will drop. Bottom line is each cell has maximum power (voltage*current) output, you can play with how you arrange them all you want but it will not increase the max power output.
The battery chemistry establishes the voltage of the cell. The chemistry Tesla uses produces a cell that's just a little over 4V at full charge and around 3.5V for most of its discharge cycle. When you wire cells in series, the voltages add up and when you put them in parallel, the current rating adds up. The power is always based on the total number of cells regardless of how they are arranged.
Tesla's smallest element within the module is a 6 cell string in series that is 24-25V at full charge. The original 60 and 70 packs had fewer of these strings in parallel, but the 75 pack and 90 pack both had 74 strings in parallel for a total of 444 cells per module. I believe the 100 KWh pack (and the future smaller pack) has 85 strings, possibly 86. That's how the overall power of the pack is increased.
I think the module is 86 strings because I vaguely remember wk057 in his 100 KWH pack tear-down saying the overall power of the 100 pack was just over 100 KWH. With 86 strings, that makes each module 516 cells instead of the 444 in the 85, 90, and 75 packs. Each 18650 cell has about 12.25 WH of storage. With that many cells, that makes the 100 KWH pack actually around 101 KWH. A 14 module pack will be 88.47 KWH. They could market that as either a 90 or an 85. In either case, it would actually have slightly more capacity than the 90 KWH pack they just discontinued which had about 87 KWH.
By a straight calculation, that makes the range 298 (1.7% more capacity). Though the actual range will probably be a little better because the car will be a little lighter. The old 90 had 7104 cells in 16 modules and the new small pack will have 7224 cells, but the weight of the extra two module assemblies won't be there so the overall weight might be a tad less.
If they can squeak out 300 miles EPA rating on the small battery pack, that will be a big psychological barrier crossed. Tesla has tended to keep at least 15 KWH between their small and large pack cars for all but transition periods. The smaller packs have often been a little bigger than advertised and the 85 and 90 were a little smaller than advertised. The 100 KWH pack is the first large pack larger than advertised. There is more perceived gap for the consumer between an 85 and 100 than 90 and 100 pack, which is why I think the next gen small pack will be advertised as an 85.
Though the car's acceleration will pretty much be the same as the current 75 because it will be the same voltage.
I expect the new 85 will be out in the next few months. They will be wanting to both discontinue making the old modules and establish the distance from the Model 3 before the Model 3 hits the market. A new 85 will also help stimulate sales and help curb the Osborne effect on the Model S.
Tesla's smallest element within the module is a 6 cell string in series that is 24-25V at full charge. The original 60 and 70 packs had fewer of these strings in parallel, but the 75 pack and 90 pack both had 74 strings in parallel for a total of 444 cells per module. I believe the 100 KWh pack (and the future smaller pack) has 85 strings, possibly 86. That's how the overall power of the pack is increased.
I think the module is 86 strings because I vaguely remember wk057 in his 100 KWH pack tear-down saying the overall power of the 100 pack was just over 100 KWH. With 86 strings, that makes each module 516 cells instead of the 444 in the 85, 90, and 75 packs. Each 18650 cell has about 12.25 WH of storage. With that many cells, that makes the 100 KWH pack actually around 101 KWH. A 14 module pack will be 88.47 KWH. They could market that as either a 90 or an 85. In either case, it would actually have slightly more capacity than the 90 KWH pack they just discontinued which had about 87 KWH.
By a straight calculation, that makes the range 298 (1.7% more capacity). Though the actual range will probably be a little better because the car will be a little lighter. The old 90 had 7104 cells in 16 modules and the new small pack will have 7224 cells, but the weight of the extra two module assemblies won't be there so the overall weight might be a tad less.
If they can squeak out 300 miles EPA rating on the small battery pack, that will be a big psychological barrier crossed. Tesla has tended to keep at least 15 KWH between their small and large pack cars for all but transition periods. The smaller packs have often been a little bigger than advertised and the 85 and 90 were a little smaller than advertised. The 100 KWH pack is the first large pack larger than advertised. There is more perceived gap for the consumer between an 85 and 100 than 90 and 100 pack, which is why I think the next gen small pack will be advertised as an 85.
Though the car's acceleration will pretty much be the same as the current 75 because it will be the same voltage.
I expect the new 85 will be out in the next few months. They will be wanting to both discontinue making the old modules and establish the distance from the Model 3 before the Model 3 hits the market. A new 85 will also help stimulate sales and help curb the Osborne effect on the Model S.
