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75kWh is first off the line?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by insaneoctane, Jun 7, 2017.

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  1. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Member

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    Lots of new speculation that the initial cars off the line will only be able to choose color and wheels. Everything else is locked to some predetermined configuration... Hmm. I am confident that will be all glass roof due to the RCs driving around (still hoping "optional" does not mean extra cost), but the initial size of the battery pack is far more speculative.

    Reasons it will be 75kWh:
    • More margin / profit
    • Best the Bolt when all eyes are watching

    Reasons it will be 60kWh:
    • Easier ramp on giga factory (5x60=4x75)
    • Better match to Tesla and SpaceX employees (they are clearly supposed to be the first receiptiants and they make only reasonable wages - 60 kwh is a better match for their salaries)
    • Closer to the "35k" car that the M3 was heralded as and it will be measured against
    • Better S/X separation
    I'm having a hard time believing that Elon is going to tell his employees that they must pony up $50k to help him work out the kinks. Also, seems like the media might accuse bait and switch- to sell a $35k only to say that you only have the $50k available. Just sayin'
     
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  2. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    I think the 'paint and wheels' may have been a bit of hyperbole by Elon (shocked, right?). I suspect at least interior color will also be an option. I'd be surprised if all the first x,000 Model 3s are black inside or white or tan. :)

    I wonder if the internal orders might get other combos to test things, like small battery, etc.?
     
  3. kbM3

    kbM3 Member

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    I think as long as the configurator is open and shows the cheaper option with a delayed date, then there should be no basis for a bait and switch accusation.

    Elon previously stated that the higher optioned model 3's would come first.
     
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  4. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    I was thinking the 60 would be the likely choice, but Tesla's history goes the other way. The X was big battery only for the first 8? months - I think the S was big only for several months too but I'm not quite sure.

    The 75 presumably has more margin built in, which can be critical in this initial ramp-up for profitability.

    Of course, the S and X had an initial signature and founder's edition with all the options on them to improve funding. We know that the initial batch won't have all the options - AWD and Performance are coming later.
     
  5. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Member

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    What is the current speculation on 75kWh upgrade price? I know that Elon is on the record in stating that they were already below $190/kWh, but won't specify exactly how below. That means Tesla cost for 15 kWh is below $2,850. I strongly suspect that they will make this a high margin upgrade, unlike their most recent 60 kWh to 75 kWh MS upgrade ($2k or $133/kWh) or 70 kWh to 75 kWh MS upgrade ($500 or $100/kWh). At 75% margin, the 75 kWh upgrade could be offered for $5k.
    Opinions?
     
  6. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    This is the correct answer ... Closer to the "35k" car that the M3 was heralded as and it will be measured against :cool:
     
  7. kbM3

    kbM3 Member

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    My guess is the 75 kWh will also have better performance and maybe even other options packaged with it so that it will be difficult to tell how much you are paying for just the battery portion.
     
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  8. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    I think you nailed it there. We know that the design studio has started to show this kind of setup for the model S and it makes sense to have prebundled model 3 configurations available when the design studio opens to ease manufacturing.
     
  9. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    I wonder what will be bundled with the $42,000 average price Model 3 Elon cited a while back?
     
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  10. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    Haven't they been building the cells they'll use for the Model 3 for use in powerwall for almost a year already? I would think they are ready to ramp by now, or maybe even stockpiling. It seems to make sense to start with the higher pack as they will almost certainly be slower building cars at the start than building battery packs. This will allow them to max their early profit without allowing the slow car production to be a bottleneck.


     
  11. googlepeakoil

    googlepeakoil Member

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    Tesla will "always" try and sell you the most expensive one first.
    The S and X were signature only to start with which are top of the range (all things included except S's rear facing seats) - all features included at $120k price in the case of the X.
    Of course within a few months -> 6 months there's an S or an X with a more powerful motor, bigger battery, other improvements.
    I imagine it'll look like this:
    Model 3 75, 250HP - Now - $43,000
    Model 3 75 350HP 4wd - Spring 2018 $55,000
    Model 3 55, 150HP - Summer 2018 $35,000
    (and ALL before $6000+ on self driving, $1500 for Turbine wheels, $1000+ on special paint jobs...)

    the HP numbers are my guesses - but it'll mean 0-60 of 5.5 for the S60, 4 for the S75 to 3.3ish for the 4wd.

    This way they're still offering a $35k car (and can't be told they're lying) - and be offering used S's for that price... and under-sell the 3 continually!
     
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  12. cdub

    cdub Future Model 3 owner / Current original Leaf owner

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    I think we can thow out how they did things in the past with the 3. The S & the X are luxury products for the well off.

    The 3, while still and expensive vehicle is more mainstream. We can't count on going by what they did before.
     
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  13. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Member

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    How could a 150HP propel the M3 to 60 in 5.6 seconds?
     
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  14. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    With enough torque, it's possible, I think.

    Assume 3800 pounds (=1700 kg). 60 mph = 26.8 m/s. So kinetic energy needed is 612 kJ.

    150 HP = 113 kW * 5.6 seconds = 633 kJ.

    You'd need enough torque to hit the power limit in the first half second...

    More likely, of course, is a higher power limit.
     
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  15. smilepak

    smilepak Active Member

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    If the initial release doesn't allow me to upgrade the battery to at least 75 kw/h, that is an automatic game changer for me. Cancel both my reservation until Model 3 get mature. It's already a disappointment for not having AWD in the initial release, but no battery upgrade, that is definitely a no-go for me.

    Unless Tesla can come up with a gauaranteed way to say they offer battery upgrade later on, I wouldn't want to buy something and can't upgrade it and be stuck with it just because.
     
  16. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    Yeah, Musk originally said highly optioned cars would roll out first but we know they flipped on that. No P, no D, only a couple options like color and wheels even available at launch. The 60 kWh pack would mean 20% more packs could roll out per week (800 of the 75 vs 1000 of the 60 with the same number of cells) which goes along with a ramping up. My guess is 60kWh now, 75 when D is available end of this year/beginning of next, and then more expensive options like tech packages etc when P is available next spring.

    I also believe the 60 will beat the Bolt's 238 mile range. Its coefficient of drag is 0.32 while the Model 3 is 0.21, both have a 60 kWh pack and I assume the Model 3 won't weigh that much more than the Bolt. If the base Model 3 doesn't beat the Bolt on range then you know that GM will use that as their main selling point against the Model 3, as will every anti Tesla blogger and reporter.
     
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  17. sammyfan711

    sammyfan711 Member

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    I'm going to get the first available configuration for the first model 3 - it's going to be a workhorse named Boxer.

    I hope it's the small battery but either way I'm chomping at the bit.

    Sig red would be my dream color, can't wait!
     
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  18. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    A lot of folks on this forum are going to be disappointed with the new Tesla strategy to deliver the basic features first ... read 55kWh RWD.
    The need to ramp output rapidly and maintain the $35K target price will not allow a software locked battery ... read no battery upgrade :cool:


     
  19. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    You can listen here what Elon said about this subject.
     
  20. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    So let me get this straight, after waiting a year and half you are going to cancel your reservation because you have to wait an extra few months? That seems silly to me. You say you'll cancel your reservation until it gets mature, but you're going to have to wait a long time after putting in a new reservation to get a car while tons of other people are getting exactly the car you were too impatient to wait for.
     
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