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78% of drivers drive 40 miles or less per day

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by scottf200, Apr 3, 2013.

  1. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    #1 scottf200, Apr 3, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
    (This topic got brought up in another thread and I had these reference from some time ago. Yes, I have a Volt with 21K EV miles on it because of my work commute ... but I'm still interested in a Model X)

    78% of drivers drive 40 miles or less per day - so consider 20 miles one way to work (40 RT which is green box below)

    gmslide.jpg

    omnibus.jpg
    Above via: http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/omnistats/volume_03_issue_04/index.html


    Look at where the daily averages fall for real-world Volt folks in the voltstats.net link below. This real-world data below fits in with the studies on why 40 miles fits 78% of the users.
    voltstatsnetdailydrivin.jpg
    Above via: http://www.voltstats.net/#dailyTab
     
  2. kevincwelch

    kevincwelch Active Member

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    Well, not that I disagree with you, but you have a selection bias in your second graph. If the Volt is advertised for people who drive 40 miles per day, then most likely your survey participants (Volt drivers) are going to say they drive 40 miles per day.
     
  3. ohaq

    ohaq Model S #P9,326

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    People buy cars according to their needs (money, distance etc). If they drive 40 miles or less then they buy volt if they drive 70 miles or less then they buy leaf, if they drive more than that then buy Tesla.

    If they are rich then they buy Tesla even if they drive less than 40 miles.

    I would think that if you get the data from Tesla, it will show that most of the drivers drive more than 40 miles.
     
  4. agentsmith1612

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    ohaq explained the point very well.

    We have to analyse the data of a big number of ICE cars. Then we will get data with a more precise picture, how many mile were driven per day.
    Because if you asked a Volt, a Leaf and a Tesla driver, depending on the car you get different answers.

    Unfortunately the EV decided how far you will go every day, not the driver.
     
  5. Rifleman

    Rifleman Now owns 2 Model S's!!!

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    What is important to remember is that the daily drive is not necessarily equal to your needed range. I have a 60 mile round trip commute daily, with one day a week being around 90 miles. I think that most drivers probably have similar habits. I came up with a good rule for buying an EV without a range extender. What I recommend to everyone is to get a car with enough ideal range to complete your daily commute 2x without recharging, assuming that you are making a real effort to drive efficiently. If you do this, you will be able to make your daily commute without worry, and should be able to cover most of your longer commute days as well. 40 miles range would cover most American drivers commute to work and back, but it would not necessarily take care of all of their driving needs.
     
  6. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    While the data may be correct, I think it's important how it's interpreted. If it's interpreted to mean that 70% of drivers don't need a car with over 40 (or 70 or 200) mile range, I think that's incorrect. That analysis would say that since the vast majority of trips are single passenger in decent weather that people should just drive motorcycles.
     
  7. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    #7 ItsNotAboutTheMoney, Apr 10, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
    However, anyone driving beyond range will use the full range of the Volt. The only issue is fuel economy beyond that range and whether they could consider another vehicle with better highway fuel economy (which are almost all hybrids). If they wouldn't or couldn't buy a BEV or HEV that would beat the Volt beyond the Volt's range then the range argument is pretty redundant.

    Of course, that's operating on the naive assumption that consumers can reason correctly.

    There is selection bias, but it would include people who drive beyond range, rather than just within the range.

    What is interesting about the graph, however that it matches the general 78%. For a PHEV that's reasonable, since the purchase of a PHEV is generally due to the need to drive on longer trips, rather than simply being about daily commutes. I actually suspect that over time you'd see more effect of selection bias as options increase and people who commute shorter distance opt for shorter-range plug-ins.
     
  8. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    Uh ... that is not from survey participants. That is real world data from 1500+ drivers. You can go to the link ( http://www.voltstats.net/#dailyTab ) under that graph and click on any of the tabs. One is "Leaderboard" to show all 1500+ drivers. Click on any column to sort. Individuals signed up can download their data. This is not a GM or OnStar site. It is just a Volt owner in WI who put it together and is using an API from OnStar (originally he was simulating a smartphone but now he's using their new API).

    That graph certainly shows where most of the drivers fall in their daily driving.

    There are many Volt drivers that drive over 40 miles per day so the battery range is not limiting here (45 summer, 30 winter). Some are driving like 60 or even more. So imagine if you drive 60 and use 40 for EV driving and 20 for ICE driving. Imagine how much gas they are still saving over their previous ride!!

    My commute is 25 but go over 15 on some days doing other sport, etc activities. I have 21.3K out of 27.3K miles using the grid/EV_miles. I've saved a LOT gas over my previous ride. I'll be happy to drive a Model X and drive gas free but that is like twice the cost of my Volt.
     
  9. kevincwelch

    kevincwelch Active Member

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    #9 kevincwelch, Apr 10, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2013
    When I said "your survey," it's irrelevant whether you collected the data or someone else collected the data.

    If surveys show that most people drive 40 miles per day, volt users for the most part drive 40 miles per day. As someone pointed out, I'm sure most Tesla owners drive 40 miles per day. So, it's not surprising that Volt owners would buy into that and report 40 miles per day. But, in my opinion, a report or survey of volt owners who mostly drive 40 miles per day in a car designed to have 40 electric miles of range (in addition to gas range) is not surprising.


    Sent via Tapatalk.
     
  10. rcc

    rcc Model S 85KW, VIN #2236

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    I think it's kind of pointless to argue about whether 70 (or 140) miles is enough range. The market will make that clear and right now, the market data seems pretty convincing that range is an issue for a lot of people. Leaf and RAV4 EVs aren't exactly flying out of the dealers here in CA and CA is one of the (if not the) EV-friendliest states in the US.

    The Tesla reservation data and cancellation of the 140-mile S seem to indicate that >200 miles is the magic range number for a mainstream everyday car in the US. A mainstream roadtripping car will need more range. My bet is >500 miles.

    People can post all the graphs and survey results they want but the market seems to be voting with its wallet that a 70 mile range isn't nearly enough.
     
  11. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    The Leaf is still not the easiest car to find in this area and I could give you a long list of people who'd love to buy the RAV4EV but Toyota won't sell you one in Florida.
     
  12. quartzav

    quartzav Member

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    Untrue for me. I bought the Volt when I anticipates 6 miles RT commute. Now I relocated to another state and my commute changed to 35 miles RT by chance. (location is really depending on the surrounding variables rather than our preference) I don't know about others, but when I bought my Volt I wasn't that energy conscious and I really don't know how much of my driving will be within the electric range provided. In fact I was a little skeptical if I really fall within the 40 miles daily. With very little modification of my daily usage pattern I realized ~75% of my driving can be covered by electric. (BTW, in the past year I moved to a colder climate state and my Volt really doesn't give me 40 electric miles most of the time, I just keep driving when I needed to.)
     
  13. Ardie

    Ardie Member

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    "The graph clearly shows"

    Either:
    A) Tesla owners should be driving more than 100 miles per day,
    -or-
    B) Tesla owners bought *way* more battery than they need.

    And, in a way, it shows that GM knew what it was doing when it designed the Volt to go 35-40 miles on the batteries alone.
    (Maybe people just need to close the gap between the world they think they live in and the world they are actually living in.)


    And who drives 1-5 miles a day? My kid drives more than that.

    -- Ardie
    And how can she be late for school?
     
  14. 100thMonkey

    100thMonkey Member

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    when it comes to average daily driving, it's the exception that defines the need.

    The Leaf, the Volt and the Tesla S are all three, great cars and will appeal to a varied market. In my two + years of EV ownership I have noticed that while the miles the average driver goes in a day may be low, it says little about how important the exceptions are. I think when choosing which EV or hybrid, or which combo, fits one's needs, it's important to look at how often one will want to drive longer distances in the given car, as the average miles per day may not show just how inconvenient it can be to sit for hours while the car charges. Even with the Tesla S, without a CHAdeMO adapter in this area, we are limited to slow charging for across state trips or multi state trips. it's too easy to be optimistic about how nice it will be to "slow down" and be more "zen" while waiting for your car to charge while in reality, it gets old fast. if the car is sitting in a parking lot for hours every day where it can be charging, that's one thing, but having to "on the go" charge, where you are actually waiting for the car to charge is something all together different, particularly if you are using the car as a "family car", where multiple people are waiting at once. the sweet spot is likely a little different depending on personal preferences, but I think it's best to choose the car that has you rarely (maybe a few times a month max) using public infrastructure where you are actually sitting and waiting for the car to charge. For us the combo is a Leaf, which gets low miles and almost never charges publicly and a Tesla S, that has a large enough battery to take us the vast majority of our miles, including most extended jaunts. In nearly 4 thousand miles of driving, we have yet to publicly charge the 100% electric Tesla S. We go to CA a few times a year and until the Tesla super charging network is in place, we will need to tolerate flying and renting a car. once the network is in place, we will be happy to drive that distance and charge along the way, as the charging interval will nicely coincide with needing to take a break from driving and the rate of charge will make the stop relatively short, about the length we will want to be stopping anyway. the Leaf takes too long to public charge frequently for long trips and it's hard on the battery, even with a fast charger. The volt would be a contender if it were larger and had decent storage, but was not a good replacement for our SUV and it uses gas, something, with each new oil spill, we detest even more. Surprisingly, the Tesla S pretty well fills the shoes of our previous SUV, in terms of utility and of course blows it away in terms of performance.
     
  15. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    I agree and disagree with this simple statement. First 70 'miles' isn't enough for me personally. I will drive 60-65 miles at least once a week, and at the interstate speeds I travel that 70 'miles' won't cut it. But I drive a LOT more than most people. I was really considering buying a LEAF, and forcing myself to drive slower. Because I spent the time and really looked at my driving habits. My wife thinks she drives more than 70 miles often, when I bet I can count on one hand the number of times she will do this in a year, and most of those will be on the weekend when she could take my car. People just don't realize how little they really drive in a day.

    Well as to A. I think it should be often enough to justify not renting a car. If I drove over 100 miles ever 10 days I would say getting big battery is the way to go.

    As to B. There are PLENTY of benefits to having 'way more' battery. Less degradation, higher performance, more comfort, more freedom.

    There is also another easy reason. SIZE. The Model S is big. Much bigger than any other EV out there. My wife was forbidding me from getting a LEAF because it was too small. And apparently my next car purchase was going to overlap with children (not yet present, or in the pipeline) and I needed a 'full sized car'.
     
  16. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    They could always buy a RAV4EV over the Internet from CA. A bit like buying a Tesla but without the local prep. They'd have to pay shipping (~$1k) to avoid the CA sales tax.

    Dianne Whitmire, the Internet Fleet director at Carson Toyota posts on PriusChat and last I read was advertising a $10k rebate on RAV4EVs. She (or her minions) regularly arrange shipping of Priuses to out-of-state buyers.

    - - - Updated - - -

    For the Volt, it's not just about the range. To get EV-at-any-speed you need enough battery to deliver the power. Lower than 16kWh means higher discharge rates, which is why the Energis' default mode starts running the engine in the 60s even with spare charge. GM might have been able to do an EREV with a bit less capacity, but not much.
     
  17. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    I do. :-D

    I work from home, so there are days -- sometimes entire weeks -- where I only leave the house to drop off my daughter at school, a three-mile round trip. And most of the time my better half picks her up, so those three miles are all the driving I do that day.
     
  18. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    I'm not sure about that. 50 miles is minimum for me on a work-day and that's only if I don't go anywhere else (of course, if I don't drive on the weekend, my average would be less). Denise drives far less than that when commuting but she regularly stays elsewhere one to three days where there won't be charging, so her between-charge distances would easily be in the 70-120 mile range.
     
  19. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    I like your point about the exceptions. That is real reason I don't want one of the "~75 mile (~50 winter)" EVs that Nissan started as the trend. I realize it fits in with studies and with many of the real-world Volt owners on Volt Stats! Tracking real world usage of Chevy Volts in the wild... but I want a vehicle I can drive all the time except on long trips as my daily driver (including weekends). Last weekend I went to a local sports tournament and went over 80 miles. Instead of taking our ICE only car I could still drive the Volt and use much less gas. My future Model X would easily handle that weekend even on a very cold winter day when I had the heater cranked.

    Many Volt owners drive over 40 miles per day and they just don't car and use the maximum battery running it down until it switches to the ICE. See "we" try to avoid that but the beauty is that we have not worries. I do need to do something for ICE maintenance finally after 2 years (get my oil change because of it's age).
     
  20. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    #20 scottf200, Apr 11, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2013

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