SomeJoe7777
Marginally-Known Member
It has another 6 months to go before it exceeds how "too soon" AP1 hardware was.
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It has another 6 months to go before it exceeds how "too soon" AP1 hardware was.
Agreed, as it was never planned to be ready at this point, the MobileEye hardware was still supposed to be running the cars. Tesla had their hand forced by the split so it looks like they are attempting to make the best of a poor situation. That being said, they certainly did a poor job with communication of the timeline and situation.
It's a tricky game they play being at the razors edge of investor's confidence and financial viability so I understand the pressure to causing them to commit to overly optimistic dates. I just really hope the Model 3 launch goes well so and takes a little pressure off so they can be a bit closer to reality on their always ambitious timelines.
pedriscoll
Active Member
What makes you think the Model 3 launch will actually occur in 7 months. I am guessing 12-15 months, given Tesla's past history.
thegruf
Active Member
What confuses me somewhat is that UI software folk are usually different from OS folk are different from apps folk.
Given the 8.1 is supposedly primarily about an OS update with some revisions to the UI, I find it unlikely that much of those teams can switch to really quite specialist realtime vision recognition software.
I can cut Elon some slack over 8.1 delays, and in spite of the above observation I can certainly understand a total focus on AP2 as clearly it has presented far more of a challenge than expected (my guess is that Mobileye's algorithms are actually far more mature than AP2 HW even if AP2 HW has vastly more processing power and potential). However if I was an new tesla/AP2 owner I dont think I would be very happy at all at this point.
All will come good even if mankind has to do an other lap of the moon first.
@Elon - keep up the great work, but underpromise and overdeliver will always win.
Given the 8.1 is supposedly primarily about an OS update with some revisions to the UI, I find it unlikely that much of those teams can switch to really quite specialist realtime vision recognition software.
I can cut Elon some slack over 8.1 delays, and in spite of the above observation I can certainly understand a total focus on AP2 as clearly it has presented far more of a challenge than expected (my guess is that Mobileye's algorithms are actually far more mature than AP2 HW even if AP2 HW has vastly more processing power and potential). However if I was an new tesla/AP2 owner I dont think I would be very happy at all at this point.
All will come good even if mankind has to do an other lap of the moon first.
@Elon - keep up the great work, but underpromise and overdeliver will always win.
Tesla would have been fine if they'd explained - we're introducing AP 2 early because we're no longer partnering with Mobileye & we want to get the better sensors & processing power in our cars as quickly as possible, even if we don't have the software ready, AND it may take us 6 to 9 months to bring EAP with AP2 up to a level comparable to AP with AP1.
Would that have impacted Tesla sales? probably not...
Would that have impacted Tesla sales? probably not...
Apparently, it's easier to lie and hope you don't get called on it, and hope you have enough fanboys to refute the noise on the Internet. Tesla isn't known for "explaining".
I suspect most Tesla customers would agree Tesla could do more to keep their customers informed. The software release process continues to be frustrating with the seemingly random distribution sequence and frequent start-stops as they pause and resume distribution whenever they fix major bugs.
A recent example is the hold on delivery of new 100Ds. While it appears Tesla is waiting for the EPA to provide some form of certification, Tesla hasn't provided any official statement to the customers waiting for their 100Ds to be released for delivery - that have been sitting at their local Service Centers. Assuming this is a routine certification by the EPA - why wouldn't Tesla be more open about informing their customers of why their deliveries are being delayed???
Despite this, Tesla still ranks high on customer loyalty. And besides the S 100D we hope to buy any day now, we also have 2 Model 3's reservations.
A recent example is the hold on delivery of new 100Ds. While it appears Tesla is waiting for the EPA to provide some form of certification, Tesla hasn't provided any official statement to the customers waiting for their 100Ds to be released for delivery - that have been sitting at their local Service Centers. Assuming this is a routine certification by the EPA - why wouldn't Tesla be more open about informing their customers of why their deliveries are being delayed???
Despite this, Tesla still ranks high on customer loyalty. And besides the S 100D we hope to buy any day now, we also have 2 Model 3's reservations.
Think of this: Tesla has always be clear in that : the car is improved almost daily and the car you buy is the most up to date.
Would you really have preferred Tesla held back on that HW and have you buy an AP1 car, and a few months later, still probably a few days from your delivery announced all car are now AP2 equipped?
HW can hardly be retrofitted. SW can.
Tesla delivered a functional AP that is now recognized as a reference, being much more efficient than any other car manufacturer's.
If it wasn't for Tesla, there would still be no AP provided by any carmakers. Thanks to Tesla, it is also proposed at a relatively reasonable price. Industry, before tesla, agreed back then that availability of AP in cars was years away and prices would be 10x what Tesla is asking for.
So again, I understand the frustration of having such a great car, with a paid option that is still not fully delivered. I've been there.
But do consider the above to put some perspective in your judgement.
Shock-On-T
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Agreed. Once real competition arrives Tesla will be toast if Elon continues on his current trajectory.
How about Musk keep his big mouth shut until he actually has agreements in place for the things that are "supposed to happen"? It seems like he made a bunch of promises based on an assumption, not on an actual commitment or agreement from MobilEye. Musk needs to cool it and start acting like a real CEO. I no longer believe anything he says. Credibility=zero.
I'm aghast at the number of people who want the first 3's off the line. It's not even a good idea to do that with an established automaker like Honda, let alone Tesla who has never manufactured anything this way before. It took three years before the S was a good vehicle.
I expect I'll be able to sell mine for a profit
If you couldn't afford a Model S and right now are stuck with a Honda Accord - I'd take the early Model 3 personally and have a spare beater around for when my 3 was in the shop.
When Tesla has problems selling cars you'll have a point. Til then it is your opinion on what Musk should do vs the data. Currently the data is winning and has been for years while all the while people have moaned and groaned with your same complaint.
Tesla sales are slowing considerably vs two prior quarters. Demand levers are fewer and market competition is nearing. Even the three will depress higher margin sales. Personally I won't enthusiastically recommend Tesla to anyone based on how the company has acted since I put down a deposit. Just not the right way to treat customers if you want long term relationships. Communication in any relationship is the most critical element and Tesla is headed for some nasty breakups soon.
I will go on to say that, Tesla has been so anti-classic-auto-industry, it will take a while for all of us to get adjusted to that. He is testing everyone, including himself - they are quite literally in an unknown untraveled path. Wild wild jungle out there, and he is making bets. His team is hopefully still supporting him - even though they are perhaps working 24x7 - because you can see they are rolling out s/w updates one after another. Some will burn out and complain. But I am sure he will march on. In the next 10/20 years when hopefully the world is literally 80% AP and battery/alternate fuel driven, these 4-8 months delays would be likely forgotten or at least forgiven. But, this team that Tesla has built that is trying to change the world - will be vindicated and be remembered. At least, I hope so . In the meanwhile, sit-back and see what they have done to auto industry:
. In the meanwhile, sit-back and see what they have done to auto industry:- Automakers never tweeted (people didn't bother following their announcements with edge of the seat expectations)
- automakers never touched the cars outside of their own service garages after delivery (they were busy with next refresh cycle 3yrs down the line) - where-as we are getting s/w downloaded overnight
- Automakers never bold enough to challenge the regulations to be progressive
- Automakers never thought could build a car in silicon valley - real estate alone is through the roof and imagine asking smart brains to to build a car, where-as apple, google, facebook and netflix are building next-gen cloud solutions
- Automakers never put the planet ahead of money (with exceptions like Prius, Leaf and Volt)
I agree, and don't.
I'm personally happy with Tesla bringing AP2 out because
-it allowed me to get AP2 hardware for the future
-TACC and Autosteer is very functional for me. (most of my driving is highway at speeds under 45mph)
-I bought EAP but not FSD
-My Tesla S is way more advanced than my 2005 Lexus. (so I personally went forward, not backwards)
-I'm a pretty chill guy.
BUT THAT SAID: there were big errors. the way I read Tesla:
Tesla probably had three choices once they had their tiff with MobilEye
Continue AP1 hardware. (might not have been a choice)
Switch to AP2 hardware.
Use no hardware.
If continuation of AP1 hardware was not an option, then their only choices were to switch to AP2 hardware or to deliver cars without hardware.
if this is the case, I'd rather they deliver cars with the hardware knowing they can do OTA updates later.
Next, Tesla has a problem with how they've prioritized the OTA updates, and how they have communicated their intentions.
I think their communication in end-2016 was at best misleading and at worst fraudulent.
Their communication today is at best nonexistent.
Their priorities for OTA updates are strange.
I would have focused on the basics first. "dumb" cruise control, auto wipers, auto lights, etc.
once that is good, then TACC on highways
once that is rock solid: then AutoSteer on highways
Once that is rock solid: Then reading street signs/etc on non-highways
Once that is rock solid: then Autosteer on non-highways
once that is rock solid: then FSD.
instead: we got a partially functional highway Autosteer and a non-functional local street Autosteer.
Sad that Tesla didn't release functionality the way I listed above, with more accurate and more timely communication.
