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8 weeks and counting, crickets from Tesla

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by SoCalGuy, Aug 28, 2018.

  1. SoCalGuy

    SoCalGuy Active Member

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    Placed AWD NonP order end of June and have heard exactly nada from Tesla. I'm a day 1 reservation holder and paying cash with no trade in. Weird that delivery estimate still says Sep-Nov and there's been no other communication from Tesla.

    Anyone else in this boat?
     
  2. 0mpg

    0mpg Member

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    Nc
    Im 9 weeks since i configured and haven't heard a peep. When I call they tell me that it depends on alot of factors and that i will get mine before the end of November. im sure I picked the wrong color and rims. :)
     
  3. gtbuzz

    gtbuzz Member

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    I'm in this boat. What wheels did you go with? Seems the 19s are in short supply right now
     
  4. Zeno 5

    Zeno 5 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2018
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    Location:
    Salem, Oregon
    3 31/16 online reservation
    6/26/18 configuration
    AWD MSM 18” Aeros
    Cash
    No trade
    EAP
    FSD
    Portland delivery

    Not a peep
    (Groan)
     
  5. SoCalGuy

    SoCalGuy Active Member

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    Yeah I picked 19s and I also picked silver :confused:
    I'd ideally want an early November build/delivery I think... enough time to sort out the remaining issues (and less pressure for them to pump out volume before quarter end).

    I do wish Tesla would give you a narrower window further in advance, eg "Your car is scheduled to be in production the week of October X" - they have enough orders already to make production schedule weeks and months in advance IMO.
     
  6. loelee16

    loelee16 Member

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    Same here. Line waiter and ordered 6/26. I thought I had a vin last week for obm awd 19” eap. Then when I called back to get the full vin for loan they said I don’t have a vin. They said they made a mistake of giving vin from wrong account. I was worried that they linked my account to someone else. They said human error!
     
  7. brkaus

    brkaus Well-Known Member

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    No news here. I’m hoping for a nov delivery. Keep the cash in my pocket for a while. And they will have the heated steering g wheel by that time. (Kidding)
     
  8. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Active Member

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    I believe that you will continue to hear crickets until the vin is assigned, so don't worry
     
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  9. Dinozero

    Dinozero Member

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    It seems some people think they are still making the cars to order. They have never started that with the mod3 yet.

    They make the cars in batches I'm assuming based on whatever supplies they have available at the time. They make say 400 whites with aeros and then whites with 19s and then whites with white interior with aeros and so on.

    Then they pull up their vast order backlog and pair cars with the orders..


    Some people get really lucky with this system some have to wait. But this system does allow for more total cars to be made per week than any other system would allow for.
     
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  10. MikeATL

    MikeATL Member

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    This is the expected experience. Until they match you with a VIN, there's really nothing to tell you. You're not assigned to a Delivery Specialist because there's nothing for them to do (and they have actual cars ready to deliver that need their full attention.)

    Some of us did see our delivery estimates change last week... from "oct-dec" to "oct". I would not expect to see frequent updates to that... clearly they just did some high level planning and felt they could promise better dates and made those updates. I do hope that they are being conservative so that they meet/beat these estimates (unlike Elon's high level delivery promises!!)

    BTW -- everyone who saw their estimates move up seemed to be Performance orders... seems logical that Tesla is pushing forward all their higher margin orders because they need to post a profit to get the negative press to turn positive.
     
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  11. SoCalGuy

    SoCalGuy Active Member

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    I know that's been their approach thus far; what I'm suggesting is that even with this system, they should have clear visibility on production schedules several weeks to a couple of months out given they have confirmed orders and indicated reservations. That should be sufficient data for them to, e.g. plan next week to be red AWD/P cars, the following week to be MSM RWD cars, and so on. Thus, for those with confirmed orders, they should be able to say, e.g.

    "John, given your position in the queue and our planned production schedule, your Red AWD with white interior is scheduled to be produced in the October 10 production run, with delivery expected 5-10 days after due to transportation logistics and delivery center availability".

    That seems totally reasonable given the vast order data they have already and their supply chain visibility.
     
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  12. MikeATL

    MikeATL Member

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    Why would you think that? No two months of manufacturing this car have ever been like the prior two. I doubt this will stabilize to any consistent pattern until next year. I would imagine they meet weekly, if not daily, and are constantly revising production plans several weeks out based on orders in queue, material supply chain delivery, labor, etc.
     
  13. Mayhem

    Mayhem Professional F5 Presser

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    just shy of 9 weeks too. This thread makes me feel better. Or at least the ole 'misery loves company' bit....
     
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  14. SoCalGuy

    SoCalGuy Active Member

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    #14 SoCalGuy, Aug 28, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
    For several reasons:

    1. They have over 450,000 reservations (Yes I know this is a global number, but at least 1/3 to 1/2 of those are in the US and Canada). They probably have somewhere on the order of 60-80,000 configured orders judging from the delta between orders and deliveries/non deliveries (e.g. My 8+ weeks so far). This should give them ample visibility on near-term demand, in addition to the non binding preferences reservation holders can indicate prior to configurating. This means they know, for example that they have to produce 20K MSM, 15K MCR, 10K MCW, 5K OBM, etc. They also know from the configured order queue what the ASP per batch is and can prioritize higher margin production first and lower later (within reason).

    2. There are only so many possible configurations and even fewer differing hardware components which means supplier constraints likely to be very minimal issue if at all. At present, cars physically only differ in (1) wheel size, (2) RWD/AWD, (3) exterior color and (4) interior color. Everything else is exactly the same. Same door handles. Same rear motor. Same sound system. Same touch screen. Same steering wheel. Same same same. You get the idea. It seems to be the exterior paint color that drives batching given the paint shop is the current production bottleneck.

    3. Given (1) and (2), they should have a general idea of when John Smith's car will be built. For example, if John ordered a MSM AWD with aeros, Tesla should know that with current paint batching and production plans that configuration is scheduled to run on the production line in week 11 putting his car roughly between October 30-Nov 7. The level of precision here is higher than a 3-month/13 week window. If you're suggesting that tesla just plans their production runs one week out then, if true, Tesla has some even bigger production problems on their hands. I have a couple of very good friends who work in consumer product manufacturing (one of whom is at a very well known consumer electronics company that just opened a spaceship campus) and both have told me production runs are pretty well planned out months ahead of time based on expected consumer demand data (e.g. color mix, storage capacities etc).

    As an aside, when my first EV was built back in 2011, I was given a two week window when my car would be coming off the assembly line and a 3-4 week window for delivery based on transportation logistics. That was from a startup company that many would say (myself included) had far worse operations and technical management. And true to form, I got my car at the far end of that 4 week window. There were 3 trims, 7 exterior colors and 8 (I think) interior color choices.
     
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  15. MikeATL

    MikeATL Member

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    I understand how it SHOULD work, but if you think that Tesla has the Model 3 production well planned out months ahead of time right now then I don't think you've been paying attention to the news this summer! I am sure they have excellent supply chain and manufacturing people doing their best, but when things are as hectic as the reports indicate they are, it's probably not easy to be as precise as they would like. The most important variable - how many cars you can make each week - keeps changing and thus any delivery predictions they make could be widely over or understated. Of course I think they have some idea - otherwise they wouldn't have just changed a bunch of people's estimates from December to October, but I also understand why they are not giving people an exact week their car will be manufactured when things are so fluid.

    BTW, I think reservations are probably a pretty useless variable for manufacturing planning. They have no idea what someone is going to order if they ever order at all (plus lots of orders never had a reservation.) It took me 9 months from when they first emailed me until I placed an order.
     
  16. frank69

    frank69 Member

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    There whole system is freakin screwed up. I gave them $1000 2 years ago to get in line. Then, they decide to open it up in June/July..so someone who came in before I even put down the other $2500 would have beat to the Tesla store would have beat me to a car. Why put $1000 bucks down...?? It was to finance their building of the model 3 plants...such bs that someone could get ahead of me if I decided to spend 2 days thinking of putting the $2500 down.
     
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  17. moridin2002

    moridin2002 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2016
    Messages:
    129
    Location:
    California
    3/31/16 online reservation
    5/31/18 configuration (Done within 2 hours of being able to configure)
    AWD, Red, 19” Sports
    Finance arranged through Tesla
    No trade
    EAP
    NorCal Delivery

    In the same boat you are. Have not heard anything yet. 3 days shy of 13 weeks.
     
  18. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    I have pretty much same reservation and order history as well as the same car configured but with FSD as well. I haven’t heard a single thing and I’m getting a little tired of seeing everyone else take delivery. I haven’t seen many post that they have taken delivery of an obsidian AWD with 19” so I’m guessing either they haven’t even been produced yet or only in small numbers so far.
     
  19. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    I completely agree, I think Tesla has shown a complete lack of loyalty to those of us who put down money and waited patiently. I understand they need to turn a profit but why did we even lock up our money for 2.5 years?!
     
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  20. loelee16

    loelee16 Member

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    SoCal
    Yea haven’t seen that many with 19” awd. I’m very tempted to change to aero and get aftermarket rims.
     

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