The timing is driven by the orbital alignment and is most favorable every 26 months or so. Knock off 4 months for transit and you're looking at 22-24 months from landing to return. Refueling supplies needs to be completed within this time period, but production can be paralleled and stored, so it need not be a factor (if it were, it would bump things out another 26 months).
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The timing is driven by the orbital alignment and is most favorable every 26 months or so. Knock off 4 months for transit and you're looking at 22-24 months from landing to return. Refueling supplies needs to be completed within this time period, but production can be paralleled and stored, so it need not be a factor (if it were, it would bump things out another 26 months).
I don't believe for a second that Elon isn't going to try to get govt money for some of the BFR development. Elon didn't give that presentation for fun. He was trying to convince the best and brightest that BFR is way more advanced than NASA STS and that NASA should move those resources over to BFR. Add some military money and other NASA budgeted items for deep space probes and the like.
Elon wants to see humans become a spacefaring civilization so of course his presentation was in part targeted at the US government and others by making clear -- without overtly stating it -- that in the near future SpaceX will offer transport to the Moon or farther for far less than anyone else can offer. Elon doesn't care about the Moon, he's focused on Mars but if the US wants to pay him to ferry humans and cargo to the moon he will gladly provide transport service and make a good profit while doing so. As he should.
The SLS is dead. It will likely never fly as the cost is astronomical compared to what SpaceX will offer.
The SLS is dead. It will likely never fly as the cost is astronomical compared to what SpaceX will offer.
I'd phrase it as getting money from government business, unless the development money is arms-length without partial control/ ownership.
"Hey look, I have a rocket that will do what you want to do, how about you hire one?"
The satellite and ISS missions will keep SpaceX funded while they build BFR, then the lunar deliveries will add to the income stream.
Less hassle if SpaceX can stay independent.
You guys do know that NASA hasn’t only bought space lift from SpaceX, right? They’ve also funded the Dragon program. Just because NASA or the military funds a program doesn’t mean SpaceX can’t negotiate to use it for other purposes.
Too bad SLS isn't actually about exploration and achieving something. Then Elon might actually convince the government to support BFR or some real plans of exploration. As it is, SLS is completely about getting the NASA funds funneled into certain Congressional districts. To put it into perspective, SLS (and before it the Constellation program) has received about $20 billion. The Orion Capsule has received $11 billion though there is monetary crossover with Constellation. So, so far, SLS, Constellation, and Orion has received well over $25 billion. For that expenditure, we have had one quick test fight of a test Orion capsule on a Delta IV. You can't get more clear than a $25 billion expenditure with only one minor test completed. Very little new technology has been developed. The engines for SLS are old Space Shuttle engines that have been sitting around. The manufacturing lines for those engines are long gone.
On the other hand, SpaceX has received the following from NASA:
$545 million for Commercial Crew Development
$2.6 billion for Commercial Crew (only some of this has been received)
$396 million for Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS)
$1.6 billion for Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) for 12 missions. Just completed with CRS-12.
$700 million estimated for CRS-1 extension for 5 more missions. (not received)
$94 million for NROL 76 flight
$100 million for OTV5
?? amount for CRS-2
So, to date, NASA has received 12 resupply missions (1 extra and 1 lost) to the ISS and development of a program to allow for American astronauts to reach orbit for about $3 billion spent.
The Air Force has spent about $250 million for two launches and a second launch provider.
NASA has made some money from SpaceX in leasing equipment and ranges. Also, they've gained a lot of money from increased tourism and interest.
True. As my monetary list above shows, there were development programs for each supplier. In every case NASA does not own the equipment those contractors created for the programs. Which is why SpaceX can use a Dragon 2 for the tourism flight around the Moon.
I just ran the math and NASA has spent approximately $4.27 billion to the Russians for the 62 US astronauts sent up on Soyuz rockets between 2010 and now.
On the other hand, SpaceX has received the following from NASA:
$545 million for Commercial Crew Development
$2.6 billion for Commercial Crew (only some of this has been received)
$396 million for Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS)
$1.6 billion for Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) for 12 missions. Just completed with CRS-12.
$700 million estimated for CRS-1 extension for 5 more missions. (not received)
$94 million for NROL 76 flight
$100 million for OTV5
?? amount for CRS-2
So, to date, NASA has received 12 resupply missions (1 extra and 1 lost) to the ISS and development of a program to allow for American astronauts to reach orbit for about $3 billion spent.
The Air Force has spent about $250 million for two launches and a second launch provider.
NASA has made some money from SpaceX in leasing equipment and ranges. Also, they've gained a lot of money from increased tourism and interest.
True. As my monetary list above shows, there were development programs for each supplier. In every case NASA does not own the equipment those contractors created for the programs. Which is why SpaceX can use a Dragon 2 for the tourism flight around the Moon.
I just ran the math and NASA has spent approximately $4.27 billion to the Russians for the 62 US astronauts sent up on Soyuz rockets between 2010 and now.
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Ulmo
Active Member
I like how he wasn't concerned about funding this time; he basically has figured out a pretty good idea of where to get it. Once he said what he's doing, he basically walked off stage without asking for any help. That was awesome.
Ulmo
Active Member
Sorry, I didn't see this before it happened, but incorrect: it was Friday local time, but Thursday our time. It was last night. I had to go to bed at 7PM last night, but woke up with an alarm at 9:25PM to watch it, and promptly went back to bed after it was done. I was tired all day at work but we got off early so all was good for me!
Ulmo
Active Member
The new plan is built as a patch to the prior plan; the new plan announcement is just a bunch of modifications to the old plan, to save time, since most people highly involved already saw the old plan, and he doesn't mind taking the time of other people that for some reason are interested in version 2 who didn't see version 1 to go watch all 3 hours of it, he just did the more efficient thing of re-posting the original and talking about the changes.
Annoying? To no one in reality, but those living under a rock or in a coma who came out of it yesterday, and to historians and librarians, but then, they should be happy they have something to do to work their wares.
Ulmo
Active Member
Start a competing company
I.e., I don't know. Perhaps someone else could throw out some better ideas why.
Ulmo
Active Member
Me neither. He looks very healthy but he was totally nervous at first. Elon, take care of yourself! More sleep, and self ... um, let's say meditation and health.
Ulmo
Active Member
Yes. As I said on Twitter, I love how SpaceX's leader doesn't follow the fallacy of sunken costs determining best outcomes.
Ulmo
Active Member
That is the quintessential point; he has literally dreamed and daydreamed about this very moment in his entire lifetime for nearly his entire lifetime; this very moment, the speech of announcement of his own true view of his most cherished crowning achievement. Saving mankind and the environment are just secondary back-burner projects for him; SpaceX is his main ambition.
I also sense something additional going on; I hope he has enough mental strength to deal with whatever. At his position, there's going to be gobs of crap to deal with; I hope he recognizes that and has become mentally strong enough for it. I realized it very young as well, and I believe he's had a similar path. But he's also stretched thin enough that some things could affect him a bit more than would be normal if he wasn't so thinly stretched. Hang in there, Elon! You're doing awesome. That's even though I criticize you pretty constantly; if you didn't do so well, I'd have nothing to criticize and certainly wouldn't be that interested to do so.
Ulmo
Active Member
And that would be fine, as long as everything is extraterrestrially fusion reactor fueled, as Elon said. The fact Toyota sucks now doesn't mean their failed approach won't be one way to process energy in the future. By then, we can look at whatever options we have at that time.
larmor
Active Member
I'm sure a transport system to different planets will come as well... Just wait for the so called E-M drive to either be debunked or proven, in the latter case, we might be looking at part three of a two part plan...Start a competing company
Ulmo
Active Member
For both your paragraphs, my answer is:
The old guys: pissed off as hell (generally), except for the ones who are mentally bigger than the others and have been waiting for stuff like this.
The young guys: really super ecstatic!
The middle aged guys: depending which team they're on, either totally-pro or totally at war now.
Ulmo
Active Member
I don't wait for NASA. I never have since I substantially grew up, and never will.
Some of NASA's divisions are excellent. But, as a total organization achieving over-arching goals set by the leaders of civilization, I have long ago realized not to look to them for that.
What NASA has been excellent as is as a resource. They have propelled us great leaps and bounds as a resource. They continue to do so. In that capacity, I find them immensely helpful. That will, and probably has, fade(d) with time.
In fact, we and SpaceX would not be where we are today without NASA. NASA is one of the most man-changing events ever to happen. Just don't look to them for the nameplate futures; they work behind the scenes, and get called out for many Thank You's.
I always loved how MythBusters (TV show) used them as a resource constantly, and how NASA just plunked down amazing capability every single time. It reminds me not identically but similarly to how Xerox PARC fulfilled a simulation version of that for decades; often, people would envision a new idea, develop it, program it, and then go ask Xerox PARC how to model testing of it compared to the version PARC made a few decades earlier, and PARC would help them improve it to do all the stuff PARC already fixed in PARC's already finished never to release product half a generation earlier.
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Ulmo
Active Member
Amazingly, I think SpaceX can foot this, not the least reason of which is they show starting with coastal places for cheapness, as civilization has always done (water is primal). In
They can site it in the ocean easily and cheaply. They already do that with OCISLY and JRTI. There is no land to purchase, no homes to purchase and move out people, no utilities to relocate, no factories to destroy, no cities to demolish to make way for an airport; there is only reusing underutilized existing ocean ports and a new fleet of drone boats.
The tired airplane industry can use the kick in the butt; they can come up with competing ideas. I hate jets flying around all the time anyway. I wish they were all grounded. I'm pretty sure they cause trillions of dollars of loss and many millions of lives lost every year due to illness being spread around the world, and the pollution they cause, and there's not much pro-merit base in how that illness and pollution is spread around.
My only criticism of BFR is the pollution and illness spread. It's a major criticism, of course. But that already exists with what it's replacing.
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