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9/29 2017 IAC - Elon: Interplanetary Plans Pt. 2

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I chalked it up to the audience. It seemed like a few of the pauses were where he would normally get a response from the group he was speaking to, but this crowd was mostly silent throughout.
I noticed that too. To me, it came across as possibly a distinct and palpable anti-USA anti-English thickness to the air, and an audience that obediently didn't show any type of response that would "enable" some "English" speaker from "USA". I really hope it has more to do with their scientific background and superior brainpower being wholly unsurprised by his ambitions. They did gasp for the money part, though. That was truly enlightening. I think a lot of them realized they couldn't suck off the huge flows of money any more if it got that cheap, and they better come up with new things to study or find really relevant stuff for SpaceX or both.

This puts Elon in the position of proving the money thing. It's not that horrible a position: people are used to paying more for less, so if he delivers more for less, that will be easier to sell, not harder.
 
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CGI can make the Millenium Falcon jump through hyperspace, but I don't think it will ever succeed at making rocket science simple or cheap. When I watch the clip (which is really, really good, btw), I see a small cabinload of paying pax boarding a BFR with BF embedded costs that someone will have to cover. Space tourists? Russian oligarchs? 1%r's who have millions to burn? Maybe. But there aren't enough of them- or enough reasons to fly the routes often enough - to pay fixed costs.
I was peripherally involved once with a very small startup airline that tried to blaze a short, quick, cheap route from Princeton, NJ, to Newark. You have no idea the hoops those poor guys had to keep jumping through, and they were operating a piston-powered Islander, not a BFR. Corporate travel departments? A full-on personal VR conference room for every meeting participant is not even a rounding error compared to flying a rocket from NYC to Shanghai.
I love the idea of one vehicle to low orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond. But I don't see much prospect in those sub orbital flights.
Not that I wouldn't book one if I could.
Robin
 
I don't believe for a second that Elon isn't going to try to get govt money for some of the BFR development.
Yes, and already has if you count prior study leading up to this, in the form of government contracts for launches. That's a huge part of his prior and future plans.

Elon didn't give that presentation for fun. He was trying to convince the best and brightest that BFR is way more advanced than NASA STS and that NASA should move those resources over to BFR. Add some military money and other NASA budgeted items for deep space probes and the like.
Yes. I think it's a pretty easy sell overall if the costs come out less expensive than Falcon 9. Because money.
Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 5.37.30 PM.png


I love re-watching that presentation.
 
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CGI can make the Millenium Falcon jump through hyperspace, but I don't think it will ever succeed at making rocket science simple or cheap. When I watch the clip (which is really, really good, btw), I see a small cabinload of paying pax boarding a BFR with BF embedded costs that someone will have to cover. Space tourists? Russian oligarchs? 1%r's who have millions to burn? Maybe. But there aren't enough of them- or enough reasons to fly the routes often enough - to pay fixed costs.
I was peripherally involved once with a very small startup airline that tried to blaze a short, quick, cheap route from Princeton, NJ, to Newark. You have no idea the hoops those poor guys had to keep jumping through, and they were operating a piston-powered Islander, not a BFR. Corporate travel departments? A full-on personal VR conference room for every meeting participant is not even a rounding error compared to flying a rocket from NYC to Shanghai.
I love the idea of one vehicle to low orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond. But I don't see much prospect in those sub orbital flights.
Not that I wouldn't book one if I could.
Robin
Was any of that paperwork related to renting existing space and facilities? Runways are notoriously super super expensive to build in the ocean or land. BFR doesn't require a runway.

While I'm talking about VTOL, here's another competitor to stupid runways:

A new two-seater electric VTOL manned aircraft launches in burgeoning passenger drone industry

Note how it will land and take off in your driveway and fit in your garage. No rent or paperwork to anyone else for land or facilities, similar to SpaceX. Unlike SpaceX's BFR, the marginal cost of control systems (including airspace use) is relatively higher in the below:
WARNING: MUTE BEFORE PLAYING BELOW VIDEO (IT HAS AWFUL NOISE)!
 
Space, facilities, maintenance, certifications, recertifications, company manuals, training (both initial and recurrent), check rides. It went on and on and on, and all to move four people from a sleepy little airport (in a rich part of the world) to a major hub.
Remember the FAA's motto: Behind every inefficiency lies a career.
Substitute BFR for three-engined purknocker, and the career possibilities are endless.
I want that drone when it has two seats and one-hour range.
Robin
 
SpaceX is blazing their own path, leaving legacy transportation behind.

They will not use existing airports, but launch off rafts in the water.

So many population dense regions are on or near water. Could take off from Oceans, Great lakes, any body of water that could handle the barge. Also could use large fields or even ice packs to land and take off.

The military would get fantastic mobility with access to these rockets. Could get thousands of troops anywhere in the world, in just a matter of hours. Also carry munitions, fuel, land transport. No longer much need to staff so many soldiers on expensive foreign bases. Just have a secured landing sight, and...instant military presence. They could also leave a region quickly when the job is done.

Not so much need for the ultra expensive giant airports necessary for jumbo jets. No long run ways, and difficult landing strips. Seems like you hear of one air disaster of another every month or so. Imagine that precision point landings from rockets might be even safer when you take to human pilot out of the picture.

Pirates and terrorists would also find it more difficult to take over control of a rocket than a human piloted aircraft.

See lots of upside here.
 
One unanswered question -- will the new BFR design be capable of landing on all of the moons of interest like Europa? Probably so, but they didn't specifically say. But since it is supposed to be able to land on our moon, it can probably land on others as well. Has to have enough thrust to take back off again without refuelling. Otherwise, it would be a pretty expensive mission.
 
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I was surprised they would use the booster for earth transportation. Anyone know how far and how fast the spacecraft alone would be able to get?

With potentially 6 sea-level raptors it could do around 1050 tons of thrust. That's less than the fully fueled spacecraft at around 1335 tons, but they could probably dispense with some of the 150 tons of cargo, and they wouldn't have to fully fuel it. I was thinking maybe a variant would be able to get across the Atlantic or something like that.

The Ship (top stage) has 2 sea level engines and 4 vacuum rated engines. It can't take off from earth sea level under it's own power if it has a full payload and get to anywhere useful. It needs the first stage to get it transonic sub orbital at least.

I don't think he'll bother with a 4th variant for sea level earth use only. They already have a Cargo only version and a Crew + cargo version. And the 3rd variation is the refueling tanker version (no open cargo holds just bigger or more tanks?).

Making and additional version to compete with Jets for medium / short haul routes just isn't worth it.
 
SpaceX is blazing their own path, leaving legacy transportation behind.

They will not use existing airports, but launch off rafts in the water.

So many population dense regions are on or near water. Could take off from Oceans, Great lakes, any body of water that could handle the barge. Also could use large fields or even ice packs to land and take off.

The military would get fantastic mobility with access to these rockets. Could get thousands of troops anywhere in the world, in just a matter of hours. Also carry munitions, fuel, land transport. No longer much need to staff so many soldiers on expensive foreign bases. Just have a secured landing sight, and...instant military presence. They could also leave a region quickly when the job is done.

Not so much need for the ultra expensive giant airports necessary for jumbo jets. No long run ways, and difficult landing strips. Seems like you hear of one air disaster of another every month or so. Imagine that precision point landings from rockets might be even safer when you take to human pilot out of the picture.

Pirates and terrorists would also find it more difficult to take over control of a rocket than a human piloted aircraft.

See lots of upside here.

I would suggest that you ignore the final bit. That was the populist dreaming that would really appeal well to the audience, in the media and to investors who're prepared to go in for the long haul to win big.

Just hope that they can deliver Falcon Heavy and then do the tough work to make the BFR work.
 
One unanswered question -- will the new BFR design be capable of landing on all of the moons of interest like Europa? Probably so, but they didn't specifically say. But since it is supposed to be able to land on our moon, it can probably land on others as well. Has to have enough thrust to take back off again without refuelling. Otherwise, it would be a pretty expensive mission.

Europa and other moons? Definitely. The key to that is in orbit refueling. If that is successfully shown then everywhere in the solar system is possible. Given enough time, you could send fuel depots (basically a big bladder filled with fuel and its own small engine) to where you expect to go and have your BFS rendezvous with it at a later time for refueling. With enough fuel you can boost longer and you can brake longer. You're getting where you need to go much faster. If you're going to have human passengers then time becomes a lot more critical. Getting to LEO without a lot of cost allows for much better robotic missions too.

For exploration, BFR is a huge game changer. Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 were less than 1 ton each. You could send out 150 of them with one launch. Cassini was 12,593 lbs. So you could send 24 of those around the solar system with one launch. It's just nuts what you can accomplish when you have something like this and it realistically costs much less than the Falcon 9.
 
The Ship (top stage) has 2 sea level engines and 4 vacuum rated engines. It can't take off from earth sea level under it's own power if it has a full payload and get to anywhere useful. It needs the first stage to get it transonic sub orbital at least.

I don't think he'll bother with a 4th variant for sea level earth use only. They already have a Cargo only version and a Crew + cargo version. And the 3rd variation is the refueling tanker version (no open cargo holds just bigger or more tanks?).

Making and additional version to compete with Jets for medium / short haul routes just isn't worth it.
There would almost certainly have to be a fourth version of the ship, if there is any chance of getting the economics to work. I assume the interior would be pretty much gutted and as many seats as possible stuffed in. At least to the extent that mass considerations allow it. Swapping the vacuum engines with sea level engines should be quite simple.

The question is if six raptors would be enough. If say eight raptors were needed, that could still be possible, as the sea level raptors would take up much less space than the vacuum raptors, but it would be a larger change to the configuration.
 
I'm wondering about sound and I don't see a solution in the context of going point to point on the earth. I love the idea and I wish we could find something. The problem as I see it is that if the rocket is only as loud as F9 (I expect it to be a lot louder), where exactly will the spaceports be sited. The toy video showed people hopping on a boat and riding out to sea to a platform. Is 20 miles far enough out to sea from New York, or are you really going more like 50 to 100 miles?

If an early network included something like:
- LA
- New York (somewhere eastern seaboard)
- Tokyo
- China
- Europe western seaboard (France / Germany)
- Australia
- India

Easy enough to think of more, but start with these, with a flight leaving from each to the others 1/day. That means that wherever you site the US eastern seaboard spaceport, you've got a big racket being made over a big area 2x per departure, and 1x per arrival. Space coast launches are a big deal and a big hit when they happen 1-4 times/month. Make it 10-20 times per day, and it'll stop being sexy and cool really fast, and instead be a constant source of noise pollution.

How far out to sea do you need to move to lower the sonic booms plus engine noise to at most "distant thunder"? Up thread, somebody said launches are audible in Orlando - google maps tells me it's 55 miles from Cape Canaveral to Orlando.

Oh - and some of those flights will need to depart after dark, or arrive after dark. I just assume that's a snap for the software - that'll be a problem for people trying to sleep.


Anyway - the physics of the sonic booms going and coming, the sound of the rocket taking off and the lesser sound of the rocket slowing down to land. Does a slower take off lower the sound and help keep the neighbors happy to have a spaceport in their back yard?

Anyway - I can see how this works for lots of other reasons already mentioned. I remain dubious (today) that anything serious / commercial will come of this until I hear how at least 2 sites can be situated that mitigates the noise pollution adequately and results in neighbors that want a spaceport nearby.

I figure that LA / New York run is popular enough for a back and forth each day, and maybe 2 (morning and night), creating the ability for some people to day trip back and forth.

Until the sound problem is solved in a clear way, I don't yet see this as a serious source of revenue to fund BFR development and building.
 
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Taking off slower has to help with the sonic boom. You could accelerate to 300 m/s and then hold that speed until you clear much of the atmosphere. Before long you're above the point where the atmosphere is capable of transferring sound to the ground, and you can go full throttle.

This will use more fuel, but as long as you're using the booster, fuel shouldn't be an issue.
 
Reading around on some discussions at other places, my personal feeling on the viability of city to city use is that the biggest obstacles will be noise level and safety concerns having a large rocket fly over/near populated areas.
The video animation showed a very large offshore barge, a whole new class of ASDS beyond what SpaceX is currently using but certainly not an impossible engineering challenge (I do wonder how to handle the rocket exhaust when launching and landing) and it will be several miles offshore. Also, no need to accelerate as rapidly as a vehicle going to orbit. That will help manage the noise levels and mitigate safety concerns. I see the biggest issue for launches being weather related. Rockets have stricter weather parameters than aircraft, though maybe that is just traditional caution and not really necessary.

Of course there are huge engineering issues with routinely taking thousands of people on massive rockets; G-force effects on passengers and cargo, safety and reliability, reusabilty and turnaround times, etc. I suspect they are all solvable.

Some perspective might be helpful. In the 19th century when trains started to go at faster speeds than humans had ever gone before -- meaning faster than a galloping horse -- there was real concern as to whether or not people could survive such speeds. Then automobiles came along and started going faster and faster, and many people were scared of the possible adverse effects. My dad told me about a day in the 1930's when his mother-in-law came home from a drive and talked excitedly about going over 35mph without injury!

I wonder if the number of people who will (sooner rather than later) physically need to travel long distances (global scale, not Hyperloop scale) can justify the huge upfront infrastructure costs. Concorde was totally reusable, too.
Thousands of people fly on trans-oceanic flights every single day. The demand for long distance air travel is enormous. It will only increase if the flight time is decreased by over an order of magnitude. Despite the internet and advances in virtual reality, the fact remains that humans like to go places and directly experience other environments and directly interact with other people. That isn't going to change any time soon.

The Concorde plane could only seat about 100 people, used enormous amounts of fuel and reduced flight times across the Atlantic by about 60%, but ticket costs were stratospheric (as were aircraft costs). It never made economic sense. The market was too small. Also, the plane was cramped and incredibly noisy. Since the Concorde ceased operating there has not been a viable economic case for a new SST. Though some silly ideas have been proposed, like this 12 passenger "business class" SST Airbus reveals the ‘Son of Concorde’ will fly in 2021 at speeds of over 1,200mph | Daily Mail Online

I also noticed Elon was more flustered than normal.
I noticed immediately that he seemed different than during previous public presentations. I think it was a very emotional day for him: 9 years to the day since the first successfull F1 launch and SpaceX is at the point of starting construction on the spaceship design that will take humans to Mars. He was presenting the plan to the world, a plan that he truly believes is achievable in the next decade (even if the 2022 launch target for the first cargo missions to Mars is "aspirational"). I think he was overtaken by the immensity of the moment. Yes, a year ago he presented his Mars mission plan in public for the first time, but at that time he did not know how SpaceX could fund it. Now he believes at least the initial phase of the Mars mission can be funded just with SpaceX revenues, and it is starting to become very real to him.
 
My only criticism of BFR is the pollution ...
There's no pollution from a methalox engine, unless you're counting CO2 as pollution. And if you use solar power, atmospheric CO2 and water to create the methane in the first place, you're effectively powering the BFR with nothing but sunlight!
 
To add to the city-to-city drawbacks, I’ll say that the 30 minutes travel time is solely time in flight. It wouldn’t include the ferry ride, boarding, the inevitable (and potentially very long) launch delays, etc. Still I imagine a huge time savings but not “I’m headed to Shanghai, I’ll be back for dinner.”

Still, if there is only one pad per city vs dozens of gates at an international airport the check in process will be streamlined. No one will have to ask which flight you are taking. No getting lost in the airport, figuring out what gate your flight got moved to even though the overhead display says it should be at the gate you are at.

It won't be a 1:1 correlation but the parking to boarding time will be lowered as well vs the average "international airport".
 
Loved the way Elon tried pulling a Steve Jobs and presented city-to-city as "one more thing". Shorter city-to-city travel times are touted as the primary benefit of flying BFR versus the airlines, but there are other, notable selling points:

1. No weather (other than space weather, a potential roadblock at times) at suborbital altitudes. Therefore, no turbulence. Even during the ascent and descent phases through the atmosphere, I'm guessing that passenger comfort will be less affected by weather conditions than on airplane flights.

2. Killer views. Who needs suborbital "space tourist" flights when you can travel with SpaceX on your next overseas trip? I wonder what Sir Richard Branson (Virgin Galactic) is thinking right now. Views will depend on seating configuration, but I'm guessing that every passenger will have at least a sliver of a view.

3. Experience zero gravity. This won't be a selling point for everyone, but many will enjoy being weightless for long enough to savor the experience, and not long enough to have to worry about going to the bathroom or trying to eat.