9.6kWh Solar System total power production

[dho112]

Every article I’ve ever read about a “10kWh solar panel system” has stated that said system will produce 15-44kWh per day, and between 1100-1500kWh per month.

I have a 9.6kW Tesla solar system with Powerwall+ and I produce an average of 62kWh a day and about 1900kWh a month. This includes me clipping at 7.7kW (inverter max) for hours in the middle of the day (It’s May and I’m in Northern California with a south facing roof)

Are solar estimates this extremely conservative? or have I hit the bullseye for solar optimization?

What are other peoples production numbers for their different sized systems?

 

[zƬesla]

April/May are typically the best productions months. And yes, estimates are usually low-balled. Check out PVWatts to calculate what you should have on average.

 

[dho112]

Thank you for the link!

I inputted numbers that were actually slightly better than what I’ve been told the Tesla system can do (96% for efficiency instead 94%, premium panels instead of standard etc) and I used my March numbers (of which I only have 3/4 of the month use since I had the system installed in Mar) and according to the table, Mar is close to the bottom of my potential output with July the highest, and still I show about 20% more than what the table shows, and if everything tracks this way I might show 35-40% more than the prediction in the summer

I was just concerned that my numbers are being overblown by the app, but my utility companies numbers from my bill show the same numbers within less than 1% difference than the app.

I’m totally happy of course! Just surprised how much they low balled the numbers for me. They should do this for EPA vehicle range estimates too!

 

[zƬesla]

It will vary year-to-year. Something else to keep in mind is that the panels will degrade over time.

Just enjoy it!

 

[tbx1203]

I am in talks with Tesla for a 9.6kW system. Debating if the batteries are worth it. I live in NJ where there isn't demand pricing, only tiered pricing. Also, I use just over 1mW per month, so the 9.6kW system will cover me 86% according to Tesla. I was wondering if I will have enough residual power from panels to charge 1 or 2 batteries if I had 1 day of sunny weather. i.e. if battery level is down to about 20% from overnight use and starts charging when sun comes up. Will the battery or batteries be able to fully charge by evening time when sun sets.

 

[tbx1203]

I am in talks with Tesla for a 9.6kW system. Debating if the batteries are worth it. I live in NJ where there isn't demand pricing, only tiered pricing. Also, I use just over 1mW per month, so the 9.6kW system will cover me 86% according to Tesla. I was wondering if I will have enough residual power from panels to charge 1 or 2 batteries if I had 1 day of sunny weather. i.e. if battery level is down to about 20% from overnight use and starts charging when sun comes up. Will the battery or batteries be able to fully charge by evening time when sun sets.

I am assuming in winter, probably not. Summer probably will be able to fully charge 1, but 2 is iffy.

 

[charlesj]

Every article I’ve ever read about a “10kWh solar panel system” has stated that said system will produce 15-44kWh per day, and between 1100-1500kWh per month.

I have a 9.6kW Tesla solar system with Powerwall+ and I produce an average of 62kWh a day and about 1900kWh a month. This includes me clipping at 7.7kW (inverter max) for hours in the middle of the day (It’s May and I’m in Northern California with a south facing roof)

Are solar estimates this extremely conservative? or have I hit the bullseye for solar optimization?

What are other peoples production numbers for their different sized systems?

Late to this thread. As indicated it varies from year to year for sure. As you can see, I am in CA as well. This year, May 2022, was my most producing month in 121 months I have my system operating. That is saying something to fortify the variations from year to year, and moth to month.
Up until this May, May 2012 was the best of any month. The system was degrading for 10 years but weather changes won out in the end.

You produced more than predicted for same reason mine is the best month for now. If I had 31 days of full sun, it would be even greater producer.

 

[cwied]

The best is p

I am assuming in winter, probably not. Summer probably will be able to fully charge 1, but 2 is iffy.

Your best bet is to use the PVWatts calculator linked above to estimate your production.

Doing a completely inaccurate estimate: I have a slightly shaded 6.3 kW system (6 years old) and it's producing about 35 kWh per day right now. If you add 50% to this, it would be 52.5 kWh. This leaves an extra 20 kWh above your average daily usage, so it seems to me that on sunny days, filling 2 Powerwalls would be pretty easy (especially if you're keeping a backup reserve). You'll also often have extra charge left over from the previous day, so you won't need to fill them completely from empty every day.

 

[kmmatney]

I though I would put up my numbers, since I found this thread from a Google search. I have a 9.6 kW system in Centennial, CO. Here are my production numbers so far this year (2023):

Total production (kWh)
Jan: 635
Feb: 936.8
Mar: 1156
April: 1245
May: 1205
June: 1220
July: 1408
Aug: 1279
Sept: 1180.3
Oct: 987
Nov (2022): 787
Dec (202): 716

Total year: 12.7 MWh

I'm right in the predicted range. I have 24 panels, with 17 facing south, and 7 facing north. I would be producing a bit more if all panels faced south.
Hope this is useful to anyone.