I just went back into the Design Studio to look at my design again and noticed 90D is now reporting "Deliveries begin early 2016" like P90D. 70D is still reporting mid to late 2016. I'm pretty sure it still said mid 2016 when I submitted my order yesterday, so perhaps things are moving faster than they expected.
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90D Deliveries Begin Early 2016
- Thread starter timf
- Start date
TSLAX
Member
That is excellent news! I had a feeling because last weekend on MyTesla page it said " parts are being sourced for your model X for the production queue" or something like this. That made me happy, but then when I went back to the page again I did not see it. Then I began to question if I had ever seen it at all.
ZachShahan
Active Member
Great to hear. I recently got word that Tesla is pulling a lot more of its people into the factory to really ramp up production. May have a story on it (leaving it to the writer to make that call, since he got the leak). Seems to match with a push to quickly catch up on reservations.
Here's what I think is happening. A swing to Model X production in-earnest in Q1. Basically 70-80% builds will be Model X over Model S. As it is a new model, it makes more sense for robots and people to work one specific order type rather than a mixed assembly line - efficiency matters. rather than build both in 2015 Q4, just blast out as many Model S in Q4 as possible, switch to Model X and blast through the order book as fast as possible in Q1 to get moving into the P90D and 90D Model X orders that are confirmed by end of Q1. I would guess 8000+ Model X deliveries in Q1 are possible. There has to be a majority of 90 over 70, so just build them - build lots of them and get them on the road so people see them and more orders roll in due to public knowledge. More magazine coverage, press coverage and friends/family interest into the springtime.
I have to wonder how California supercharger usage will look by Q2 of 2016 since Model X will undoubtably sell most of the first few weeks to first months into California as a majority.
I also noticed the delivery date change when I visited my config page last night. It now says early 2016, the same as P90D.
Also, we saw a white model X on PageMil last night around 8:00 pm. My first sighting.
It had the MFG license plate. It looked beautiful. The only thing I didn't like about it was the front headlights. I wish they had kept the Model S' headlights. The good news is that I won't really see it myself.
Also, we saw a white model X on PageMil last night around 8:00 pm. My first sighting.
It had the MFG license plate. It looked beautiful. The only thing I didn't like about it was the front headlights. I wish they had kept the Model S' headlights. The good news is that I won't really see it myself.Mind if I ask where you see that? Is it still in the design studio? Or somewhere on your 'my Tesla' page or confit details?
I don't think Tesla will reduce Model S output but instead increase total production as much as possible, perhaps breaking 20k cars / Q1 2016, and continue increasing production, top estimates for Q4 2015 were 18k cars for the quarter, can't Tesla make 20k / 22k / 24k / 26k for the 2016 quarters ? BTW that would be 92k cars for 2016 ! The big question is does Tesla need to make any shutdowns in 2016. If that's possible and 50% of production is MX, that's 46k MX !
Tesla must do everything it can to achieve at least break even for 2016, so production must increase as much as possible. If production continues to increase in a solid pace.
Just for quicks, if Tesla could continue adding just 2k cars more each quarter, 2017 would be 28/30/32/34 or 124k cars, 2018 would be 36/38/40/42 total 156k cars !
Break even is the most sustainable economic model long term. Avoid borrowing if at all possible.
Tesla must do everything it can to achieve at least break even for 2016, so production must increase as much as possible. If production continues to increase in a solid pace.
Just for quicks, if Tesla could continue adding just 2k cars more each quarter, 2017 would be 28/30/32/34 or 124k cars, 2018 would be 36/38/40/42 total 156k cars !
Break even is the most sustainable economic model long term. Avoid borrowing if at all possible.
CmdrThor
Active Member
Elon indicated in a recent quarterly earnings call that max Model S + Model X capacity would be about 1600-1800 per week and they can do 1000 per week max Model S or Model X but if they go 1000 Model X, the Model S would have to be reduced to 600-800. He also said they likely would reduce Model S production initially because people have been waiting so long for Model X.
Regarding the ramp you suggest - 2017 would have to include Model 3 for your scenario, IMO.
Effectively, the Model S demand rate growth (ie. fresh orders) includes building inventory cars today so that they can have some staged for walk-in buyers.
Model S sales in Q1 of 2016 should be quite a bit off of the Q4 sale number due to issues like Denmark's last-minute burst in 2015-Dec and last minute buying in the USA for federal tax credit and a few other circumstances such as inventory discounting (low lease payments) in December in the USA and more.
Model X "ramp" occurs soon in Q1 and Q2 but backlog of those orders can be caught up during 2016.
Without a similar backlog of special orders such as Model X going into 2017, demand levels require both constant incoming orders and sales site lot sales as well as perhaps advertising to generate more demand.
There is also a concern that if Model 3 is "really good" that Model S orders will somewhat suffer for those who are marginalizing themselves to get into one (ie. those spending more than 20% of their income on the payment). They can wait for a lower-priced Model 3 for a year or slightly more than trying to stretch and buy new. And the CPO program also carries over to impacts on the Model S demand rate - where you can find some quite-good pricing on used models without a requirement to buy new other than to get the warranties and new-car smell.
EternalChampion
Member
I was invited to configure yesterday, was given early 2016 delivery for 90D. Went back in to tweak with configurator later and it said mid-2016. Not sure which is correct.
ArtInCT
Always Learning
I have a question for you all.... how does Tesla inform you of your VIN number assignment?
Do they send an email OR does it show up on the My Tesla dashboard where the reservation number is shown?
Do they send an email OR does it show up on the My Tesla dashboard where the reservation number is shown?
pvogel
Member
ArtInCT
Always Learning
Thanks for that response pvogel. Much appreciated.
Exactly where on the dashboard? Right now my dashboard shows a reservation number.
Reason being is that I have specified a late March / early April 2016 delivery.
Thanks
pvogel
Member
MrBoylan
Member
Did you select 5 seats? When I had access to the design studio, the 5-seat option said "mid 2016" while the 6 and 7 had no such notification.
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