Good question. It's complicated. A new battery will lose capacity the quickest. So some of it is the battery "settling" which will resolve itself in a few months. If it continues to drop at the same rate, something's wrong.
It also depends on how the pack is cycled. Plenty of evidence shows that charging to 60 or 70% daily will cause the range also to "lose sight of 100%" and it will err on the conservative side and underestimate capacity.
Day to day variations should not be large. In my experience, it is accurate to +- 1 rated mile.
Makes sense, thanks.