Wrong math for sure.
I'm confused about why it's hard to puzzle out that not everyone drives that far that often.
Not sure what you mean by "wrong math". Take 20% off the top of each of the EPA ratings per your earlier claim and subtract. Obviously battery physics are more complex than this but given there are only a few non-P90D Xs in the wild today and zero P75Ds it's all just informed speculation based on various Model S configs.