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A Guide To Tesla Energy

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,759
33,351
Philadelphia, PA
I don't see solar roofs being a very big deal in the next few years, though I can understand why Elon put such emphasis on it's importance at rollout. Elon's a creative thinker who understands crowd psychology and economics, but his perspective is obviously that of an absurdly wealthy consumer. Normal folks would be more than happy to take action with a cheap traditional solution.

To me it's not aesthetics, but economics holding Tesla Energy back on the residential end. SolarCity's issues were quite obvious in retrospect and Elon has already acted to carve them out. DevCo(the sales half of the company) ran the show. It's only natural that a sales org wouldn't drive down soft costs when their existence was literally most of the soft cost. Without lean soft costs residential solar(fancy or standard) will NEVER scale properly.

Door to door sales has been canned by Elon, Sunrun/Vivint carry on the SolarCity model, and Telsa is treading water until other customer acquisition avenues present themselves. I honestly think if Sunrun weren't doing such a great job executing the sales-heavy model, Elon would still be out there right now begrudgingly eating tons of sales cost. As it is, they're content to let others handle that role.

My prediction is we see Tesla ramp up residential solar/storage in a big way next spring. Selling online only and keeping non-install costs low will create a huge value moat that'll begin to squeeze the other big players. After a year of that Elon buys Sunrun for $1.6B and integrates their footprint into his lean sales/service platform. Lynn Jurich(Sunrun CEO) runs the entire residential wing of Tesla Energy and grid services are carved out to their own group within Tesla.

That's a fairly detailed prediction but it's the only thing I see that makes sense. People are drastically underestimating how cheap top quality American made solar can be installed(if you have a scaled plant and install network). If Elon drops a base price point of $2.49/Watt online NO ONE will be able to compete on value and latent demand will flow like mad. Then you "bail out" Sunrun for cheap. By then(late 2021) solar roof will be ready to take off.
 
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mspohr

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2014
10,234
12,850
California
I'm building a new cottage on my property this summer and would love to have a solar roof but doesn't look like I can count on it.
 

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