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A Little Different Take on Tesla's Future

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by NerdUno, Jun 3, 2017.

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  1. NerdUno

    NerdUno Member

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  2. EV-lutioin

    EV-lutioin Active Member

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    Probably short seller propaganda. The have been publishing this kind of stuff for years to try to drive down prices.

    Looks like it is from Value Walk, not Electrek...
     
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  3. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    They are using a negative tone but Every data point mentioned in that article is true though.
     
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  4. tpham07

    tpham07 Member

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    i dont take seriously websites that dont load properly. haha
     
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  5. Off Shore

    Off Shore Supporting Member

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    OP was contrasting the presumably more-realistic Value Walk with the presumably over-optimistic Electrek. I don't know how to explain bears' affinity for names that include "Value."

    Edit: spelling
     
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  6. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Why is much more credence given to competitor cars that currently only exist as photoshop files?

    How can you bank on a network that is supposed to show up in a few years when I can plug into one now? And if Tesla can use all of these other networks in addition to its own, who wins in the end?

    I hope the author and everyone who believes every "point as true" here takes a massive short position.

    A free M3 from shorts isn't enough I want two.
     
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  7. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Lol. For me too. Black text on a black background? Not going to bother reading it.

    Also the top section (which luckily in in gray) already said the analysis was written by "Elon Musk's number one enemy". Obviously this is stock motivated negative spin.

    Most investor sites have stock motivated spin articles (either positive or negative).
     
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  8. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Member

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    It's like all the iPod/iPhone "killers" over the years that were supposedly going to blow Apple out of the water. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
     
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  9. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    Mark Spiegel is a nutjob. Just look at his twitter.
     
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  10. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Ratio is higher than that when it comes to EV and what it takes to get one produced on an assembly line.

    Anyone with a billion can produce a dozen lucid airs with Lidar dishes no problem. Make 100,000 that are all sold? - totally different dimension.
     
  11. NerdUno

    NerdUno Member

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    I think the takeaway from the article was that a couple years down the road, the EV and self-driving landscape is going to be quite different once BMW, Mercedes, GM, Ford, Volvo, and all the Japanese and Korean car manufacturers join the party... unless you believe all the established brands plus Intel and Google and Apple will all be total failures.
     
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  12. oktane

    oktane Active Member

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    Bye Tesla, you had a nice run...
     
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  13. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Established brands does not equate to success. And just because you can possibly "win" a space, doesn't mean its smart to burn your company to the ground or best value to your shareholders to pursue it.

    Google+ vs Facebook Social Media - (682bil vs 445bil market cap) - How did Google's Social Media Platform G+ do?

    Apple Car - I can't find it. Is it next to the Bose headphone section in the Apple Store?

    Google Car - I've always wanted my own Ghostbusters car. Sucky that Lidar is a $20k option.

    BMW i3 - Sorry, no point vs M3.

    BMW i8 - Sorry, it's dumb compared to an optioned out Model S.

    GM - Going to go bankrupt AGAIN

    Ford - Should buy Tesla stock while it has any money to do so.

    Potential and an empty sack is WORTH AN EMPTY SACK.

    Autonomous EV cars with charging infrastructure network is not something that can be built in a garage overnight and bring disruption cheaply.

    Since our beliefs seem to be so far apart, I encourage you to take a massive short position on Tesla where you stand to make a lot of money over the next few years.

    Longs like me who don't understand the competitive landscape will be transferring billions in wealth to individuals like yourself who can see the obvious.

    Now that TSLA is sitting at ATH, this is the -perfect- time to short. Go big. I'll be buying you a new house. Is your brokerage account set up for margin? If not, you are missing out on massive leveraged gains on other peoples money.
     
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  14. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    #14 MXWing, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    Go short and put your money where your mouth is please. I have money I want to give to you.

    Success in the market comes from betting against crazy ignorant, and irrational people.

    Since I'm one of them and I'm long TSLA - smart money says to go bearish and take a big short.
     
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  15. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    I think the problem with that party is that Tesla is the crazy loner that's partying by itself, and everyone else want to be fashionably late. They're all hoping someone else with be the 1st to mass produce EV and spend money to establish battery production and charging infrastructure.
     
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  16. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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    #16 Curt Renz, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    The article's source Mark Spiegel (aka Logical Thought) has been screaming bearishly about Tesla and Elon Musk through the media ever since Tesla's IPO in June of 2010. He runs a quite small hedge fund out of his apartment with assets of only a few million dollars, perhaps much of that his own money. His short position in TSLA must be painfully underwater. Virtually every day his twitter account is packed with rants against Tesla and/or Elon Musk. What he calls cash burning is actually investment in the growth required to disrupt long established capital intensive industries. In November he spoke at the Robin Hood hedge fund conference to recommend short selling Tesla shares. We Tesla shareholders call it the period of the Spiegel Bottom in Tesla stock. His argument that day was that competition will eventually destroy Tesla. At that time one of his twitter friends called me a dimwit and dared me to double-down on TSLA. I did.

    Elon Musk opened Tesla patents to anyone. He wants more competition to validate that electric cars can soon dominate internal combustion engine cars. He looks upon manufacturing of the latter as what must be crushed, not the former. Tesla does not need to monopolize the automobile industry to be a huge success. Meanwhile, the established automakers are dragging their feet regarding electric vehicles, since internal combustion engines are their cash cows. In fact those ICE's are all that they really design and make before assembling cars at their factories. Unlike Tesla, virtually all of their other parts are from suppliers. Meanwhile Tesla is completing a Gigafactory for building the vital battery packs for electric cars. Everyone else is way behind.

    Similar FUD was heard a century ago from those who did not believe Henry Ford could virtually eliminate the millenniums-old horse industry. Ford's automobile competitors either folded or merged. Ford is the only big automaker that never folded or went bankrupt until Tesla came along. We're on the threshold of another great transportation revolution. Competitors will always be there, but I expect they will be eating Tesla's dust for a very long time.
     
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  17. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Member

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    Just as everybody said the same thing about Apple vs. RIM, Palm and Microsoft back in 2007. There was always an iPhone killer just around the corner, until the first two got completely crushed and the third sidelined their mobile efforts(after getting rid of the CEO pushing them).
     
  18. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    #18 Reciprocity, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    It doesn't matter if all those companies succeed with autonomous. The real winner will be the one with FSD and EV and gigafactories.. Preferably dozens. The rest will fall without those 3 things being better then Tesla is at all three combined. I do however see a lot of competition in the future but it will be more like Android vs the iPhone. iPhone had about 34% market share but 90-102% of profits depending on how you count loses for some Android phones. I'll take that all day long. And it really is part of Elon's plan. He wants to create demand and accelerate the transition which Tesla can't do alone. We need 100 gigafactory like factories ASAP.

    Edit: the main reason is that autonomous without EV is not very useful as the cost to operate an ice would be 2-3 as much with gas and maintenance and could be more if the EV fueled by solar. The ice autonomous just can't compete.
     
  19. Krypto Kat

    Krypto Kat Member

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    A few die hards may believe that to be the case, and few others actually think that Tesla could be the Toyota of EV's, the name it self will sell even if the competition has better products.
     
  20. oktane

    oktane Active Member

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    If I invested in individual stocks, I would! Been burned too many times playing options so I stick to index funds. I'd be thrilled if TESLA keeps growing, I have no financial interest otherwise.
     
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