Blog A Look at Tesla's EV Competition in 2019

[Ty_McMahan]

It seems Tesla is on the cusp of achieving its original goal – “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” But, how will that win impact the overall health of Tesla as a business? According to a study by the London-based PA Consulting...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/08/28/a-look-at-teslas-ev-competition-in-2019/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]

 

[EliMTA]

"The manufacturer’s leadership position in electric cars will be overtaken by legacy automakers by 2021."

I'm dying of laughter. The legacy automakers are so many years behind they have no chance and catching Tesla's leadership position by 2021.

 

[barjohn]

You also have to take this prices with a grain of salt. Those are as realistic in 2019 as Tesla's model 3 for $35K is in 2018. For fun I tried configuring the Jaguar I-Pace. By the time you have the options anyone paying this much for a car added, the price is closer to $90K than $70K. Anyone that had ever purchased a Porsche knows that the base price is for a non-existent vehicle and by the time you add even a few options the price leaps through the stratosphere faster than a Space X rocket! Th majority of the brands mentioned have mastered the pre-packaged options marketing game so that the only thing in the dealer show rooms is priced way beyond the entry level price. The result is that most will be priced beyond the performance version of the Model 3 without the same features but will probably have a fancier interior (not necessarily better), just fancier).

 

[chetmmd]

None of these cars have the range of my Tesla 'S', none have the cachet of coolness and I failed to note anything resembling a supercharger network and as they generally have less range, they are less than useful for long trips. So no, I wouldn't even consider changing my Tesla for anything except a newer Tesla, and I don't see them as real competition yet.

By the way, all these models are hobbled by a dealer network which does not have an incentive to sell them, unless a customer demands them. Tesla has every incentive to sell their cars. So, I regard the timing of significant competition as grossly unrealistic.

Porsche customers like Porsches, not BEVs. Same for Jaguar Customers. My wife is an Audi customer and loves her Audi; refused to consider a BEV. Pardon me for being a pessimistic Tesl enthusiast, but I think we will have internal combustion cares around us for a long time to come

 

[BerTX]

The one thing most of the manufacturers got right, which Tesla got wrong, is that they have the foresight to produce an SUV first. It's what people want.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Not one of these Tesla Killers is designed to be better than each manufactures’ gasoline cars. However, they will hurt their own brand more than they hurt Tesla.

 

[hill]

Several of the soon to be competition may very well be better .... fit & finish wise. But even with Tesla's warts ... until there is a comparable infrastructure - the others are still just all dressed up with no place to go.
.

 

[tonybelding]

The study says Tesla will be surpassed by Toyota as soon as 2021 (which is not that far off in terms of automotive development cycles), even though Toyota have basically nothing now? How can that even happen?

 

[Wynand]

If I can I also took a look at the EV landscape in 2018 - How the EV sector responds to Tesla. EVs – Moving beyond Tesla | How the auto sector responds to Tesla

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh, heck no! You will not get me to click to read that blog. Ever.

 

[Wynand]

Oh, heck no! You will not get me to click to read that blog. Ever.

You must be such a nice guy, hiding behind a screen name? FYI the website - it's not a blog - has no monetization and purely one man's efforts to help with EV adoption, so sorry if it does not live up to your standards whatever it may be.

 

[wdolson]

"The manufacturer’s leadership position in electric cars will be overtaken by legacy automakers by 2021."

I'm dying of laughter. The legacy automakers are so many years behind they have no chance and catching Tesla's leadership position by 2021.

The criteria of the study is horrible. They assume, like most pro-legacy analysis, that Tesla is going to stand still from here on forward while everyone else will leap forward at an unreasonable pace.

Here are their criteria for the score:

• Technology and strategy (model portfolio and technology roadmap) – 30% weighting factor;
• Battery technology (cost position and technology maturity) – 20% weighting factor;
• Culture and incentives (leadership and incentive system) – 10% weighting factor;
• Supplier network (value chain integration) – 15% weighting factor;
• Ecosystem and partners (charging technology and third-party services) – 15% weighting factor;
• Financial performance (EBIT as e-mobility investment indication) – 10% weighting factor.

Absolutely nothing on access to batteries. They track the tech and cost position but zip on how many they can source by 2021. Tesla is the only car manufacturer today who has enough batteries to mass produce EVs and it will likely have the largest supply in 2021 too. Mercedes might be able to make more electric lawn ornaments by 2021 (EVs without batteries), but the problems Hyundai is having with the Ioniq is likely going to hit other car makers going forward. Supply is increasing, but Tesla is way ahead and will likely stay way ahead for a long time to come.

Tesla also has the new Roadster and Semi coming soon and the Model Y may be out by 2021.

This study looks like GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out).

 

[tonybelding]

If I can I also took a look at the EV landscape in 2018 - How the EV sector responds to Tesla. EVs – Moving beyond Tesla | How the auto sector responds to Tesla

That article has some pretty good tidbits. Example…

According to a survey by the German publication “Automobilwoche”, the success of electric cars in Germany seems to be the technologies biggest risk as prospective buyers now face delivery times that can have them waiting as long as a year for their new EV. The problem is not isolated to buyers of imported vehicles only but also local brands such as Volkswagen where buyers have to wait until October 2018 for delivery of e new e-Golf purchased today. Smart CEO Annette Winkler said that the increase in demand is much stronger and faster than could have expected and planned for with the companies suppliers, resulting in buyers only receiving their new Smart by the end of 2018 or early 2019.

This matches the anecdotal reports that I've been picking up from different directions. I suspect the big electric car supply crunch is starting to unfold. In the next several years we're likely to have a scene where the big obstacle for electric cars isn't going to be range or price or charging infrastructure or reluctant dealerships. It's going to be a challenge of simply getting your hands on one.

 

[Krugerrand]

You must be such a nice guy, hiding behind a screen name? FYI the website - it's not a blog - has no monetization and purely one man's efforts to help with EV adoption, so sorry if it does not live up to your standards whatever it may be.

1. Right at the top of this thread it says BLOG

2. *They* have been claiming Tesla Killer/Competition for over SIX years and it’s always ‘just around the corner’, ‘next year’, ‘tomorrow’ etc...

3. I do my own research, don’t need someone else to do it for me and here’s the kicker - there is NO Tesla competitor. None. Zip. Zero. Nadda. And anyone who’s attempting to say there is either not very well informed about Tesla, the entire automotive industry and the EV vs ICE market or is disingenuous.

4. *This* competitor discussion has been had on this forum literally DOZENS of times. A simple search would reveal that. Every stone has been turned over, every angle examined. There is nothing new that can be added to the discussion.

You either understand how Tesla is growing the market segment and stealing from all market segments (not the other way around - OEMs stealing customers from Tesla), how Tesla’s technology is so far ahead of everyone elses and continues to advance every day, how Tesla is building a one stop shop sustainable energy ECOSYSTEM, how OEMs are simply making compliance cars to meet regulations so as to not adversely affect their ICE business, how OEMs aren’t putting enough effort into building HUGE battery factories and global FAST charging networks or you don’t.

5. I already know what the writer wrote based on comments from fellow posters here that I’ve known for years - meaning I know what they think and believe on the topic and I know how they disseminate and interpret information etc... If those posters are saying such things as it’s horrible information/garbage in thusly garbage out then it is and I will not click and read it as it’s a waste of time.

6. My standards are simply know what you are writing about inside and out, otherwise the it’s just more inaccurate information floating around the Internet and Lord knows we’ve got enough of that already.

 

[CBreaux]

2 words -- SuperCharger network.

 

[Xcelerator]

FUD plain and simple. They predict that Tesla will be in 7th place by 2021. The German consulting group that wrote this German love fest opinion piece is 51% owned by the Carlyle Group, a large private equity group heavily invested in energy production. I don't know their opinion on Tesla, but, it is always good to know who wrote the piece when you read it.

This opinion piece is based on EU CO2 emissions requirements and assumes Euro auto makers will meet the 2021 targets. Quite an assumption considering how we know the massive fraud Volkswagen committed in the US to fake their emissions information. The article also has a lynch-pin basis of this FUD: "The reason that Tesla's future is uncertain, according to PA’s report, is continued problems in production and uncertain profits."

So basically, this is pure speculation upon speculation. If you have something as pressing as needing to pick lint out of your belly button, your time would be better spent doing that than reading this worthless FUD.

 

[Baltimoron]

I think a distinct advantage that TESLA has over these competitors is their ability to provide OTA changes to address deficiencies and improvements (even net new functionality). It was not addressed in this report and until this is standard, I would not even consider another competitor.

 

[Wynand]

1. Right at the top of this thread it says BLOG

2. *They* have been claiming Tesla Killer/Competition for over SIX years and it’s always ‘just around the corner’, ‘next year’, ‘tomorrow’ etc...

3. I do my own research, don’t need someone else to do it for me and here’s the kicker - there is NO Tesla competitor. None. Zip. Zero. Nadda. And anyone who’s attempting to say there is either not very well informed about Tesla, the entire automotive industry and the EV vs ICE market or is disingenuous.

4. *This* competitor discussion has been had on this forum literally DOZENS of times. A simple search would reveal that. Every stone has been turned over, every angle examined. There is nothing new that can be added to the discussion.

You either understand how Tesla is growing the market segment and stealing from all market segments (not the other way around - OEMs stealing customers from Tesla), how Tesla’s technology is so far ahead of everyone elses and continues to advance every day, how Tesla is building a one stop shop sustainable energy ECOSYSTEM, how OEMs are simply making compliance cars to meet regulations so as to not adversely affect their ICE business, how OEMs aren’t putting enough effort into building HUGE battery factories and global FAST charging networks or you don’t.

5. I already know what the writer wrote based on comments from fellow posters here that I’ve known for years - meaning I know what they think and believe on the topic and I know how they disseminate and interpret information etc... If those posters are saying such things as it’s horrible information/garbage in thusly garbage out then it is and I will not click and read it as it’s a waste of time.

6. My standards are simply know what you are writing about inside and out, otherwise the it’s just more inaccurate information floating around the Internet and Lord knows we’ve got enough of that already.

 

[Wynand]

From the first paragraph:
I have been asked by the organizers of the Africa Utility Week to provide insight into the international EV landscape. Let me start off to say the title does not imply that the presentation is anti-Tesla, so hold your horses if you are short of Tesla stock. The presentation aims to look at how the rest of the market is adapting to the disruption brought on by Tesla shifting the transition to sustainable transport forward by a decade.

 

[N5329K]

The criteria of the study is horrible. They assume, like most pro-legacy analysis, that Tesla is going to stand still from here on forward while everyone else will leap forward at an unreasonable pace.

Here are their criteria for the score:

• Technology and strategy (model portfolio and technology roadmap) – 30% weighting factor;
• Battery technology (cost position and technology maturity) – 20% weighting factor;
• Culture and incentives (leadership and incentive system) – 10% weighting factor;
• Supplier network (value chain integration) – 15% weighting factor;
• Ecosystem and partners (charging technology and third-party services) – 15% weighting factor;
• Financial performance (EBIT as e-mobility investment indication) – 10% weighting factor.

Absolutely nothing on access to batteries. They track the tech and cost position but zip on how many they can source by 2021. Tesla is the only car manufacturer today who has enough batteries to mass produce EVs and it will likely have the largest supply in 2021 too. Mercedes might be able to make more electric lawn ornaments by 2021 (EVs without batteries), but the problems Hyundai is having with the Ioniq is likely going to hit other car makers going forward. Supply is increasing, but Tesla is way ahead and will likely stay way ahead for a long time to come.

Tesla also has the new Roadster and Semi coming soon and the Model Y may be out by 2021.

This study looks like GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out).

Pretty much this.
Robin